Synopsis
Copper prices have exceeded $13,000 per tonne. A new rush of metal exports to the United States is fueling this recovery. This situation is driven by uncertainty over future US tariffs on imports. Supply disruptions and underinvestment in new mines are also contributing factors. This situation creates pressure on the metal available globally. Investors are showing strong interest in copper.
AgenciesKostas Bintas, a high-level head of metals at Mercuria Energy Group Ltd., warned in a November interview that the rush for U.S. imports would leave the rest of the world without copper, predicting that “that’s the biggest problem” for copper buyers.
Copper resumed its torrid rally to surpass $13,000 a tonne for the first time, as a new rush of metal shipments to the United States ignited bullish traders and investors.
Benchmark prices on the London Metal Exchange jumped 4.4%, the latest in a series of rises that have sent copper up more than 20% since mid-November.
The rally was supported by a rush of metal exports to the United States, as President Donald Trump’s lingering threat of tariffs on imports caused the United States to copper price to trade at a persistent premium to those of the LME. That sparked warnings that the rest of the world could run out of copper and inspired bullish investors already attracted to the metal thanks to its uses in everything from data centers to electric vehicle batteries.
“Historical U.S. inventory builds continue to drive global copper prices,” said Helen Amos, commodities analyst at BMO. Capital Markets Ltd..
A strike at the Mantoverde mine in Chile helped fuel speculative activity in the market, according to Al Munro, senior base metals strategist at Marex.
“The reality is that this is a speculative bid focused on silver as the market is pricing in further upside, particularly during the first quarter of 2026, with many having been sidelined in hopes of a decline,” Munro said.
Copper is increasingly at the center of attention as governments worry about supplies of the critical metals. It is vital to the energy transition because of its role in electrical wiring, but miners and traders have long warned that investment in new mines was not keeping pace with new sources of demand, while existing mines faced a series of setbacks.
It was also boosted by a broader surge in metals prices, with investor flows taking gold, silver and platinum to record highs in recent days, while aluminum and tin hit multi-year highs.
A fatal accident at the world’s second-largest copper mine in Indonesia and an underground flood in the Democratic Republic of Congo are some of the supply disruptions that helped drive up copper prices last year.
“Years of underinvestment and continued mining disruption have left the market with little room to maneuver, while uncertainty over pricing policy and storage are intensifying pressure on available metal,” said Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Groep NV.
Yet the latest move was driven by uncertainty over future U.S. tariff policy, analysts and traders said. Trump fueled a massive rush for copper exports to the United States in the first half of last year before abruptly ending that trade in late July by exempting refined copper from any import duties.
But trade has picked up in recent months as a plan to reexamine the issue of import tariffs once again led to higher prices in the United States. Trade data shows U.S. copper imports in December reached their highest level since July.
Kostas Bintas, a high-level head of metals at Mercuria Energy Group Ltd., warned in a November interview that the rush for U.S. imports would leave the rest of the world without copper, predicting that “that’s the biggest problem” for copper buyers.
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