NFL Confidential: Executives and agents share winners and losers; The best and worst contracts in free agency

Just like many of us, NFL executives, agents and scouts have been surprised by some of the moves the league has made in the first days of free agency. We polled NFL insiders to find out who they think are the winners and losers in free agency at this point, as well as which contracts they consider to be the best and worst. An NFL executive praised one team’s overall approach, while an agent didn’t like one of the $100 million contracts awarded this week. So which teams improved the most in the first week of free agency? Which contract was the biggest overpayment? Here’s what we learned during our conversations with NFL executives, agents and scouts. [2026 NFL Free Agency Grades] *** Jets and Raiders off to a good start to their rebuild: “They didn’t do anything stupid” Ralph Vacchiano: The teams that spend the most in free agency aren’t always the ones that do the best. In fact, some years the biggest spenders turn into the biggest failures. But two teams that had money to spend this week received positive reviews from several NFL scouts and executives. So maybe there is finally some hope for the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets. “I’m not saying either will be good,” an assistant general manager told me. “But I liked their approach (to free agency). They didn’t do anything stupid.” The Jets, in particular, “completely rebuilt their defense,” as one scout told me, “but they did it without taking any big, unnecessary hits. Every guy they signed is a solid veteran player. And none of them broke anyone’s bank.” Their signings included linebacker Demario Davis (two years, $22 million), edge rusher Joseph Ossai (three years, $36 million) and a trade for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (three years, $40 million). They also took an inexpensive one-year, $5.5 million chance on cornerback Nahshon Wright, who went to the Pro Bowl last year. “Aaron Glenn is a defensive guy, and he saw that after last year’s trades. [of defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and cornerback Sauce Gardner]“He had nothing to build on,” one AFC executive told me. “He still needs to find some stars, but now he has a foundation, at least in the short term. He can start building a program, even if most of these guys won’t be around when the Jets finally get good.” The Jets haven’t received much praise for their decision to trade for Geno Smith and make him their quarterback, but the executive told me: “It’s not like they have any good options. At least it doesn’t. didn’t cost them much.” As for the Raiders, their situation was complicated by the collapse of the Maxx Crosby trade — a deal the assistant general manager said “would have made their offseason a grand slam He said their spending “was a little crazier.” [than the Jets’]but they had room to burn, so who cares? What if they had two extra first-round picks for a player who didn’t want to be there? Wow.” Even without those picks, the Raiders still have the No. 1 center on the market (Tyler Linderbaum, three years, $81 million), a sleeper receiver (Jalen Nailor, three years, $35 million) and a trio of solid defensive players (edge player Kwitty Paye for three years, $48 million; linebacker Quay Walker for three years, $40.5 million and linebacker Nakobe Dean for three years, $36 million). “It’s all about the quarterback,” the scout told me of the Raiders, who are expected to draft Fernando Mendoza with the first pick in the draft. “But you can’t say ‘nothing else matters.’ They had to fix the defense to be able to keep him in games. They had to protect him. They had to get him a receiver. “Forget the prices. They did all that. It wasn’t a franchise change [spending] ” ***The Rams are making it clear they’ll do it again. Vacchiano: The Los Angeles Rams know they’re primed for a Super Bowl run, and they knew their biggest problem was their secondary. Consider that hole being plugged. The Rams made a huge pre-trade trade for cornerback Trent McDuffie that cost them a first-round pick and more (not to mention the four-year, $124 million contract they gave him). They then signed cornerback Jaylen Watson to a three-year, $51 million deal, but as one NFL executive told me, “How can you not admire them for going for it?” few years. ” ***More free agency winners and losers Vacchiano: Several other teams came up in conversations with league staff about free agency winners and losers: ***Agent: Thumbs up for Malik Willis’ deal with the Dolphins Eric D. Williams: In a quarterback market where Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa will make a lot more money with their old teams playing for their new teams and Daniel Jones signed a deal that’s worth it. the punishment. “All of these deals are risk management exercises,” the agent told me. Head coach Jeff Hafley served as defensive coordinator for the Green Bay Packers while Willis backed up Jordan Love at quarterback. And Dolphins general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan worked as vice president of player personnel for the Packers before being hired by the Dolphins. “The most pragmatic deal would be Malik Willis’ deal with Miami,” the agent told me. [Tua] This year. They did a good job being pragmatic in their new starting QB deal for Willis. “Given the cost and risk of the QB market, this Willis deal is perfect in terms of value while mitigating downside risk.” ***The Commanders’ deal with edge rusher Odafe Oweh isn’t as popular, though Williams: On the other end of the spectrum, the agent highlighted former Los Angeles Chargers edge rusher Odafe Oweh, who signed a four-year, $100 million deal with the Washington Commanders, including $68 million in guaranteed money. Oweh, 27, finished with 7.5 sacks in 12 games with the Chargers and went sackless through the first five games of the 2025 season with Baltimore, playing 513 snaps between stints with the Ravens and Chargers last season after a midseason trade with LA Washington appears to be betting on the potential of a breakout campaign for Oweh, but the agent I spoke with has reservations. “There’s a reason why Baltimore traded him to the Chargers last season,” the agent told me. “Besides, I’m not sure that its year of production in Los Angeles [relative to his lack of production in Baltimore] That equates to $25 million a year for me.