Oil prices have jumped more than 40% since the start of the Iranian conflict, shaking global energy markets and raising fears that American drivers could see further increases at the pump.
Analysts say consumers may not yet have felt the full impact because rising crude prices typically take weeks to be reflected in retail gasoline prices. Even if oil stabilizes, prices at the pump could continue to rise in the short term.
“It’s more than likely there’s more to come, as there’s typically a mismatch between crude prices and what consumers pay at the pump,” said Phil Flynn, FOX Business contributor and senior market analyst at Price Futures Group.
Michael Mische, a supply chain expert and professor at the University of Southern California, also predicted that the worst was not over, telling FOX Business: “There is still much to come.” »
“There is a lag and prices will continue to move through the system,” he said.
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Prices are seen at a gas station in downtown Brooklyn, New York, United States, March 18, 2026. (Matthew Hoen/NurPhoto via Getty Images / Getty Images)
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude closed Friday at $99.64 a barrel, remaining high after a volatile period linked to the conflict. Although prices were about to experience their first weekly decline in more than a month, they remain significantly above pre-conflict levels.
The rally follows supply disruptions linked to US and Israeli strikes on Iranwhich analysts say have removed about 10 to 11 million barrels per day from global markets, tightening supply.
Gas prices are displayed at a mobile gas station on March 17, 2026 in the Kensington neighborhood in the Brooklyn borough of New York. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
Geopolitical uncertainty continues to drive the market. The United States has extended the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – a key route for global oil shipments – while considering additional military action. Prices could fall if the conflict eases, but they are likely to remain above pre-conflict levels, while a prolonged escalation could push prices higher.
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“Even with this supply shock, the increase was relatively orderly – and it could have been much worse,” Flynn said.
But Mische noted that strong domestic production helped soften the impact. “If we didn’t have current production levels in the United States, we would be in a real disaster,” he said.
For consumers, gasoline price have already started to rise, but further increases could occur as the previous rise in crude continues to spread through the system.
High gasoline prices are displayed at the Chevron gas station in Los Angeles on March 9, 2026, as gasoline prices rise amid the ongoing war with Iran. (Frédéric J. BROWN / AFP via Getty Images)
The national average price of regular gasoline stood at about $3.98 a gallon, according to AAA, up about 6 cents from a week ago and almost a dollar more than a month ago. GasBuddy data shows a similar trend, with prices increasing about 7 cents week over week and more than $1 over the past month.
The increase largely reflects oil’s earlier gains, and with retail fuel prices lagging those of crude, analysts expect further upward pressure in the coming weeks.
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Seasonal factors also contribute. The transition to more expensive summer gasoline blends is underway, increasing refining costs and potentially keeping pump prices high even as crude stabilizes.
“Prices go up like rockets and down like a feather,” Mische said.
Reuters contributed to this report.