Travelers in Terminal 1 at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport on March 1, 2026.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Like a plane ticket continues to climb Amid the war in Iran, potential travelers may be wondering: Should I buy my plane ticket now or wait to see if things improve?
Travel experts say it’s usually best to buy as early as possible.
“Whether you’re planning a trip in two weeks, two months, or even a fall trip, waiting to buy a plane ticket…in the hopes that the conflict will end soon is honestly riskier than some of the fashion choices we made as teenagers: Our future selves won’t be happy about it,” said Katy Nastro, a travel expert at Going, a travel deals site.
Bottom line: “If it fits your budget now, don’t delay,” Nastro said.
Airfares have increased, especially for international routesA technician prepares to refuel a Delta Airlines aircraft at Austin-Bergrstrom International Airport April 10, 2026 in Austin, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Airfare prices generally increase as the high-demand summer season approaches.
But prices have climbed more sharply than usual this year due to an oil supply shock triggered by the ongoing Middle East conflict, which began Feb. 28 when the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran.
The average round-trip domestic flight cost $361 as of April 20, according to weekly data from Kayak, a travel search engine. This price is up about 8% from $335 on February 23, before the start of the war in Iran. This is also a 19% increase from $304 a year ago at the end of April 2025.
International fares have increased further in recent months: The average round-trip flight reached $1,097 on April 20, a 42% increase from $774 on February 23 and a 14% increase from the previous year, according to Kayak.
The impact of jet fuel and the war in IranA jet fuel truck on the tarmac at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, United States, Wednesday, April 22, 2026.
Eva Marie Uzcategui | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Airlines raise prices in the summer largely because of the cost of jet fuel, according to Hayley Berg, chief economist at Hopper, a travel booking app.
Jet fuel is one of airlines’ largest operating costs, typically accounting for 20 to 30 percent of their total expenses, making jet fuel a “significant factor” in airfares, Berg wrote in an email.
Iran and the United States have blocked the Strait of Hormuz – a shipping route through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply passes – in competing attempts to inflict economic pain on the other, driving up global oil prices.
Read more of CNBC’s personal finance coverageThe price of U.S. jet fuel, refined from crude oil, has risen about 82 percent since the start of the Iran war, reaching $4.56 a gallon on Wednesday, up from $2.50 on Feb. 27, according to Argus Media. jet fuel price index.
Airlines must either absorb these additional costs or pass them on through pricing to recoup “significantly higher” per-flight costs, Berg wrote.
In addition to increasing ticket prices, airlines have taken measures such as increase baggage fees, addition of fuel supplements And reduce flight times to manage the fallout.
The degree of impact for consumers varies by journey, Berg wrote.
For example, the price effect may be more limited on shorter flights since fuel represents a smaller share of total operating costs, she wrote. But fuel becomes the “major cost driver” on longer flights, so changes in fuel prices have a more direct and pronounced impact on these travelers, she wrote.
Berg said she estimates that rising fuel costs have already pushed summer airfares about 10% higher than Hopper expected. Fares to Europe, Americans’ top summer destination, rose about 9 percent, she wrote.
“We do not know how fuel prices will develop this summer, as the outcome of the current conflict is unknown,” Berg wrote. “Travelers looking to book a domestic or international flight for the summer should start monitoring prices now. If they find a good deal, we recommend they buy! »
Even if the war were to end in the near future, it would likely take months for the situation to return to normal, experts say.
For example, it would take time to rebuild oil infrastructure in the Middle East and overcome delays in oil production, Nastro said.
“Don’t wait [to buy]because that’s a risk you just don’t want to take at this point,” she said. “By thinking the rate is going to go down drastically, you run the risk that it just won’t go down at all.”
This logic applies to summer travel as well as flights in September and October, she said.
The “Goldilocks” counter to buy plane ticketsLchatnoir | E+ | Getty Images
War aside, airfares can be volatile, experts say. And plane tickets tend to get more expensive in the weeks and months before departure.
Travelers can usually get the best deals by shopping months in advance and not waiting until the last minute, they said.
Nastro calls this the “Goldilocks” window.
Domestic travelers typically get the best prices when they shop about three to seven months in advance of their trip, while international travelers typically do so four to 10 months in advance, Nastro said.
Berg proposed a similar timeline, depending on the destination. She recommended:
Domestic flights: Start monitoring prices three to four months before a trip and book one to two months in advance;Travel in Europe: Start monitoring prices seven to eight months before departure and book three to six months in advance;Travel in Asia, Australia and Africa: Monitor prices seven to eight months in advance and book five to seven months in advance for longer international trips.Travelers who have not yet booked their trips may also want to consider the fall shoulder season instead of flying over the summer to save money, and/or postpone until there is perhaps more clarity on the war in Iran, Berg said.
“Flying in September or October, compared to the busier summer months, can provide significant savings on travel, especially to international destinations like Europe,” she said.