May 6, 2026, 12:44 p.m. EDT
MERTHYR TYDFIL, Wales — A clamor of stage smoke, campaign signs and lively music. It’s the kind of rallying energy that once greeted politicians from Britain’s left-wing Labor Party here in its ancestral heartland, where it dominated politics for more than a century.
Instead, out came the face of the dominant far-right, smiling in light blue pants and a sports jacket.
“Let’s start a political revolution here in Merthyr!” “” Nigel Farage told the crowd Tuesday evening, standing on a pop-up stage in a shopping center parking lot, under gray skies and rolling green hills.
“Let’s make history!” “” he yelled, later describing an “invasion” of undocumented immigrants and shouting “Get them out!” of the crowd.
This friend of President Donald Trump and the leader of Reform UK told 700 people he wanted to see Labor “blown to pieces” in Thursday’s elections across Britain.
Polls suggest Farage may get his wish.
Supporters of British reform gather in Merthyr Tydfil, Wales on Tuesday.Finnbarr Webster/Getty ImagesReform is expected to make significant headway in thousands of local council elections across England, as well as elections for devolved parliaments in Wales and Scotland – regional legislatures with powers over health, education and transport. The result will not only serve as a mid-term barometer for historical developments. unpopular Labor Prime Minister Keir Starmer. It will also assess the real appeal of Farage’s programme: a far-right, anti-immigration, anti-green, tax-cut agenda, with promises to reindustrialise Britain and revive its ailing high streets.
The South Wales Valleys remain one of the most economically deprived areas in Britain. In some regions, just 7 in 10 working-age adults are employed and around a quarter are economically inactive. This makes it fertile ground for the Reform Party’s argument that voters have been left behind by the political mainstream and helps explain why Tuesday was Farage’s 10th visit in 12 months.
He had the crowd in his palm, making them finish his sentence: “Vote for reform!” – to which they responded: “Get Starmer out!” » He cracked jokes, mixing cranky humor with rants against wind turbines and mocking Starmer before vowing to reduce hospital waiting times.
This welcome would once have been unthinkable in these parts: the old joke in Wales was that Labor could pin a red rosette on a donkey and still win.
But ahead of this week’s vote for the Welsh Parliament, the Senedd, a Monday screening of the think tank More in Common put the left-wing pro-Welsh independence party Plaid Cymru on 30%, the Reform Party on 27% and the Labor Party on 16%. For Labor, that’s barely ahead of a Conservative party still toxic in many Welsh communities due to the closure of coal mines in the 1980s by Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
Merthyr Tydfil, Wales Monday. Francesca Jones for NBC NewsLabor activists on our doorstep are “fighting this idea of ’We’re going to give someone else a chance,'” said Carwyn Jones, a giant of Welsh politics who served as Labor prime minister from 2009 to 2018. “It’s very difficult.”
Leighton Andrews, who served as Jones’ education minister, described the mood in the party as “gloomy and resigned”.
Welsh Labor did not respond to a request to interview one of its candidates for this article.
Government coalitions are key here, given Wales’ proportional voting system. If Plaid Cymru comes first, they will have a strong chance of leading a government here for the first time, possibly with the support of other parties. Labor previously relied on Plaid’s support to govern and could be called upon in the event of defeat to return the favor.
Meanwhile, most parties have already vowed not to work with the Reformists, making it unlikely they will come to power. But for a party founded only in 2018, becoming the biggest or second biggest seat winner would be an earthquake.
“All signs point to this being a political revolution in Wales,” said Laura McAllister, professor of politics at Cardiff University.
As Welsh as this story is, many elements will be familiar throughout the West.
“What we are seeing in Wales is actually a reflection of other parts of the country and, you could say, many other countries around the world,” said Joe Twyman, one of the UK’s biggest pollsters and co-founder of Deltapoll. a public opinion consultancy firm.
Decades of “discontent, distrust and disapproval” were amplified by the financial crisis, “amplified by Covid” and worsened by inflationary wars in Ukraine and Iran, he said, fomenting global anger against existing leaders.
Above: Artwork in Merthyr Tydfil as part of a wider regeneration of the town. Below: Stores closed in the city center on Monday.Francesca Jones for NBC NewsMines, choirs and rugbyFor generations, two colors have defined life here in the valleys of South Wales: the black coal beneath the hills that helped power the industrial world, and the deep red of the Labor Party that dominated politics above. The festival was embedded in the daily life of these hilltop communities, as Welsh as the mines and steelworks, the chapels and libraries, the men’s choirs and rugby.
Falling demand and cheap imports caused most of the mines to close in the 1990s, devastating the economy built around them. Some miners moved to nearby factories run by companies like Hoover, Burberry, Ford and Panasonic. Most of them have also closed their doors.
The service sector and public sector still provide jobs, and hundreds of millions of pounds of redevelopment have been required. But nothing has replaced the void left by mining which, although dangerous and poorly paid, galvanized those who came to earth with working-class pride and determination.
With the mines many workers’ clubs that forged these communities disappeared. Today, the same streets are dotted with vape shops and nail bars.
“When I was a kid it was a nice area to live in, but now the town has gone downhill,” said Sam Lewis, 37, a mother of two who works as a carer for her own mother in Merthyr. His family all voted Labor. When asked who she would support this week, she barely let the question finish.
Sam Lewis, 37, who looks after her mother, said she was voting Reform. Francesca Jones for NBC News“Reform,” she interrupted. This is truly our last hope. Lewis said she was motivated less by politics than by Farage’s “promise of change” and his frequent visits to the region. “He talks to people and gets to know the community. »
The Reform Party’s support does not come solely from frustrations with urban decay.
About 20 minutes away, three valleys from Merthyr, Cwmcelyn Pond once supplied water to the mines, but is now a verdant nature reserve populated by ducklings, carp and fishermen. It’s also home to Janis Casault, 73, a former Tory voter turned Farage follower.
“I never liked Nigel Farage,” said Casault, a retiree wearing sunglasses and a waistcoat. “I’ve never had an ounce of racism in my body, and I do now,” she said, referring to accusations of bigotry aimed at Farage’s movement.
Her perspective changed as she watched him participate in political debates. “This guy took so many hits,” she said. “I said to myself, ‘Ah, this is a guy with stamina.’”
Janis Casault at Cwmcelyn Nature Reserve in Blaina, Wales on Monday. Francesca Jones for NBC NewsThis week, Reformers caused an uproar by threatening to open immigration detention centers in areas where Green Party lawmakers are elected.
Farage himself was accused of regularly making Holocaust-related jokes while attending one of London’s elite private schools more than 40 years ago. He denied making these statements.
Asked about the accusations against his leader, Reform candidate Jason O’Connell said “people have been throwing mud at Nigel for decades”. The party has been “called every name: racist, fascist, but that couldn’t be further from the truth,” he added.
Jason O’Connell, Reform candidate for the Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr constituency.Francesca Jones for NBC NewsAnother obstacle could be that pollsters and analysts say there may be a ceiling to the Reform Party’s rise. Although he peaked at 34% nationally in polls last fall, he has since fallen to the low 20s. And although 27% of people have a “very” or “somewhat” favorable opinion of Farage himself, 54% have a “very unfavorable” opinion, according to an April YouGov survey.
Ultimately, Wales’ revolt against Labor is not simply a march towards reform.
Analysts say the country appears to be splitting into two anti-Labour blocs: voters with a stronger sense of Welsh identity, many of whom are leaning towards Plaid Cymru, and more British-identifying voters, including former Conservatives, who are leaning towards the Reform.
This leaves Labor stuck on both sides.
Antipathy towards mainstream parties means many people will ignore elections altogether. “I won’t vote for any of them,” said Craig Rhys, 37 s, drywall installer from the Gurnos area of Merthyr. “They’re all full of bullshit.”Francesca Jones for NBC News“It’s not that people have left the Labor Party; it was the Labor Party that left them,” said Delyth Jewell, a Plaid Cymru MP defending her seat on Thursday. “They just don’t really recognize the Labor Party as the party of socialist values anymore.”
The history of Wales’ left-wing past is such that even Farage on Tuesday recalled the memory of Keir Hardie, the founder of the Labor Party who was elected MP for Merthyr in 1900.
Labor “was patriotic at the time,” Farage told the rally. He “represented people who got up in the morning, went to work, paid their taxes, obeyed the law, and took care of their families.”
“And what’s next?” he asked. To which a spectator shouted: “The party of illegal immigrants!”
The Gurnos housing estate in Merthyr Tydfil. Francesca Jones for NBC News