Major League Baseball’s hitters over 35 face biggest drop in production in decades

Nolan Arenado was fighting his way through the month of May when the Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman woke up one morning with an illness familiar to those who felt invincible in their 20s but have reached their mid-to-late 30s. His back hurt. Not bad. Not enough to keep him out of the lineup. But it was one of those inexplicable moments that come with being an aging Major League Baseball player — threatening to derail a hot streak for an eight-time All-Star who just turned 35. “There’s more pain,” Arenado said. “There’s just a little more work in the gym, getting ready for the game, than before. It’s a learning curve. I’ve always been in the gym, I’ve always done that kind of thing, but there’s definitely more maintenance.” Arenado overcame a minor back issue and is continuing a bounce-back season in the desert, batting .256 with eight homers and 30 RBIs in Monday’s games. strong results at the plate, joining Los Angeles Dodgers veterans Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy, as well as Houston’s Christian Walker. But it’s a small club that has become smaller over the last decade. MLB hitters aged 35 or older combined to provide just 5.6 WAR (wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs) through about the first third of the season, continuing a trend that has accelerated over the past decade. The major league standard peaked in 2003 when older hitters combined for 71.3 WAR, with a group highlighted by Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, Kenny Lofton, Luis Gonzalez and Jeff Bagwell. So what has changed? 1980s, but terms like WAR, wOBA, BABIP and OPS+ didn’t start to become more common in the big leagues until the late 2000s. Suddenly, the eye test wasn’t enough for MLB general managers. Arizona’s Corbin Carroll, Detroit’s Kevin McGonigle, Pittsburgh’s Konnor Griffin, Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. and Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez are among dozens of promising players who signed lucrative contracts well before hitting free agency. Spending on veterans is out of fashion. “I think it has a lot to do with being able to gauge the value of guys on the field,” Walker said. “For a long time, WAR didn’t exist, wRC+ wasn’t a stat, right? ” Velocity exploded during their career. Today’s young stars came of age in a game where speed is king, but that wasn’t the case when Freeman and others broke through. The average MLB fastball in 2026 sits north of 94 mph, with 18 qualified pitchers averaging at least 96. Debuting 17 years ago, the league average was below 92 and no qualified pitcher averaged at least 96. Arenado said one of the first things that becomes more difficult for MLB veterans is the ability to handle very good fastballs, especially at the interior. That makes matchups difficult against pitchers like Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski, who regularly throws 100 mph. “I feel like the general age of levels and development is getting younger and younger,” Walker. “And maybe there’s something to that — like your best balls might be when you’re 27.” Big league teams also value flexibility more now. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has Freeman and Muncy in his lineup almost daily. He also played in the major leagues until age 36, retiring in 2008, which gave him some personal experience with the aging process. “I’m ready to change the equation,” Roberts said. Roberts said the process is different for each player. Some need to practice more. Others less so. Others need more sleep. “For me, there’s no real magic bullet, just chalk it up to late flowering,” Walker said. I haven’t played in the big leagues in 20 years or something. It’s just a chance to still be able to help the team. like before,” Lovullo said. “Some people say, ‘I’ve had my career, it’s not as easy as it used to be, and I want to stop it.'” Later, he added, “It’s funny to see Nolan Arenado have all this success, but he’s worked his butt off. He works as hard as any 22 or 23 year old we have on this team. » Report from the Associated Press.