How can Israel break its election deadlock?

No clear winner has emerged from Israel’s election, raising speculation over which party could form the next government.

Early on Friday, the Central Elections Committee (CEC) published the final results of the October 27 vote, which had a high voter turnout of 77.9 percent.

Neither Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition grouping led by Gadi Eisenkot has secured the majority necessary to form a government. Both leaders have also ruled out working with the two main electoral lists representing Palestinian citizens of Israel – the United Arab List (Ra’am) and the Joint List.

So how can Israel break its political deadlock?

Yes. On Thursday, at least 500,000 “double envelope” votes which came in from soldiers and diplomats were counted. These voters use two envelopes: the first contains their ballot without any identifying information, while the second bears their personal details. The anonymous envelope is placed inside the second envelope, allowing officials to check that voters have not cast ballots elsewhere, without compromising the secrecy of their choice.

Netanyahu’s bloc secured 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot won 48 seats.

The United Arab List, or Ra’am, and the Joint List secured a combined 19 seats.

To form a government, a political party must hold at least 61 seats. No single party has ever won that majority and alliances have led to governing coalitions, with a prime minister at the helm.

Political consultations to form a coalition are reported to be under way.

If the process fails, Israeli President Isaac Herzog could choose which candidate has the best chance to form a government. That candidate is then given about 28 days to do so – a period that could be extended.

If the candidate fails, the president can then choose another. If that candidate is unable to form a government, then a 21-day window opens in which 61 members of the Knesset can submit a request to Herzog to assign the task to a Knesset member.

Yes, because if all the processes listed above fail, Israelis will have to return to the polls.

Many Israeli leaders have rejected the idea of partnering with Arab-led parties.

Netanyahu has ruled out working alongside them and demonised them following their strong showing.

“It is forbidden to form a government with them,” Netanyahu posted on X on Friday.

Netanyahu’s Likud party has accused the Arab-led parties of “stealing” the election, after his own coalition lost its majority.

According to a Times of Israel report this week, Eisenkot has said he would only consider partnering with any party that recognises Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, endorses the values of the Declaration of Independence and commits to all Israelis performing national service.

He has not said whether the Arab-led parties would meet those criteria.

On Thursday, another opposition figure, Avigdor Lieberman, the hard-right leader of Yisrael Beytenu, also ruled out certain coalitions. “Neither Bibi nor Tibi”, he said, using Netanyahu’s nickname and invoking Ahmad Tibi, leader of the Ta’al party – part of the Joint List.

The Arab parties have shown interest in partnering with anti-Netanyahu factions.

Yousef Jabareen from the Joint List said that his party was ready for the “ousting of the Netanyahu government”, which he called one of “bloodshed”.

“Against a politics of supremacy, racism, and exclusion, we offer a completely different alternative. The change comes through Jewish-Arab partnership, a true and equal partnership,” he wrote on X.

Political analyst Ahmed Najar said the parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel have shown considerably more pragmatism than Eisenkot and most of his allies.

“Ra’am has indicated that it is open to participating in an Eisenkot-led government, while the Joint List has left open the possibility of supporting a minority government from outside the coalition, provided that such support delivers meaningful commitments on equality, violent crime in Palestinian communities, home demolitions and a political pathway for the wider Palestinian question,” he said.

It is still too soon to say, according to analysts.

“The numbers don’t add up for any side,” Roi Zur, a lecturer at Essex University and specialist in Israeli voting behaviour and election strategies, told Al Jazeera. “However, there are rumours that Eisenkot will ask for the support of the Arab parties in a government investiture vote in return for financial investment in their communities. Yet, this is unlikely on both sides, and even if both sides go forward with this idea, it might fall due to Lieberman objecting to the idea.”

Zur said that if the four parties in Eisenkot’s “change bloc” were closer to a majority, outside support would have been more likely because Ra’am is perceived as a more “moderate” Arab party.

“Then a European-style confidence-and-supply agreement would be more probable,” he added.

Nimrod Flaschenberg, a Berlin-based political analyst, told Al Jazeera that it is still unclear whether Eisenkot is willing to rely on Ra‘am and the Joint List.

“If Eisenkot will be willing to go for such cooperation, then there are three options: The first is the Israeli-Arab parties could be part of the government. This is what Ra‘am wants; the Joint List does not want this at this stage. The second option is they could be a coalition member but without any government seats. This is what Ra‘am was in the Bennet government from 2021-2022,” he said.

“The third option is they could support from the outside as a preventive bloc that does not vote down the government. Most predict that if there is such a government, it will include Ra‘am in the coalition and will rely on the Joint List from the outside,” he added.

Palestinian political analyst Najar said that the real obstacle at this stage is not a lack of pragmatism from Arab parties, but rather “the refusal of Eisenkot and several of his partners to recognise Palestinian citizens of Israel – and the 19 representatives they elected – as legitimate political partners”.

“The election produced 67 seats outside Netanyahu’s bloc, but Israel’s political system continues to behave as though 19 of those seats do not fully count. Eisenkot wants Palestinian votes to remove Netanyahu while insisting on a ‘Zionist government’ that excludes the representatives of those same voters,” he noted.

“That is not merely coalition arithmetic; it exposes a profound democratic contradiction. Palestinian citizens are permitted to vote, but when their votes become decisive, their political legitimacy is immediately questioned,” he added.

To keep power, the prime minister could yet form a coalition, according to Yossi Mekelberg, a senior consulting fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.

“He can try and persuade Eisenkot and others to form a coalition with him and in the meantime he can delegitimise the Arab parties to make it difficult to form an alternative government,” he told Al Jazeera.

Flaschenberg said Netanyahu will likely push for another round of elections.

“In his calculation – the Arabs will not turn out as before and the opposition would be discouraged and stagnant. He believes that in another round of elections his bloc could get to 61,” he said.

“The other option that [Netanyahu] is working on is getting one or two parties from the Change bloc to join his government. Most likely Bennet and Liberman. But at the moment it doesn’t look like they are going to join him,” he added.

Al Jazeera’s Nour Odeh, reporting from Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, called the election “an existential moment for Palestinian Israelis”.

Palestinian analyst Najar said that for Palestinian citizens of Israel, the result represents both an achievement and a test.

“They turned out in large numbers, secured unprecedented representation and may now have the power to prevent another Netanyahu government. Yet they are again being told that their votes are acceptable only if they do not translate into real political power,” he said.

“For Palestinians in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, however, there is little reason to see this as a contest between occupation and peace, or between oppression and equality. It is principally a struggle over who will govern Israel and how Israel will present itself — not whether Palestinians will continue to live under military occupation, settlement expansion, dispossession and systemic inequality,” he added.

“But Palestinians will judge any successor by policy, not personality – whether it ends the genocide in Gaza, stops settlement expansion and settler violence, and recognises Palestinian freedom and self-determination,” he said.