‘Foreign policy is the economy’: How Iran war is shaping US midterm vote

Detroit, Michigan – The first question in the United States Senate debate in Michigan between Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed and his Republican rival Mike Rogers was about the issue that appears to matter most to voters – the economy.

El-Sayed quickly drew a contrast between himself and Rogers, who is backed by US President Donald Trump. It was not about interest rates, taxes, or trade policy. It was about the US-Israel war on Iran.

“Right now, the cost of gas, the cost of groceries, it all really goes back to this war in Iran,” the progressive Democrat said on Wednesday.

“We need a War Powers Resolution rather than a senator who wants to stand hip-to-hip with Donald Trump on this war that made no sense when it started and certainly makes no sense now.”

El-Sayed was referring to legislative efforts to curb Trump’s ability to continue the eight-month conflict.

Across Michigan, Democrats are emphasising their opposition to the war to woo voters stung by rising gas and grocery prices.

“The war in Iran is a kitchen table issue,” said Jonathan Guyer, programme director at the Institute for Global Affairs (IGA).

“Voters don’t often rank foreign policy as their top issue, but I think it’s so interwoven with the economy right now that essentially foreign policy is the economy.”

IGA released a survey last month suggesting that 60 percent of potential voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war. More alarmingly for Republicans, an overwhelming majority of respondents – 81 percent – agreed that the conflict has raised the cost of living.

Almost immediately after Israel and the US started attacking Iran on February 28, Tehran began disrupting the flow of energy products through the Strait of Hormuz – sending oil and gas prices skyrocketing.

In the US, the price of diesel – which is used to power heavy machinery, including heavy trucks that ship consumer goods across the country – has reached record highs over the past weeks.

Likewise, petrol or gasoline has become less affordable. Average Americans feel that uptick firsthand almost daily at the gas pump.

The average price of one gallon (3.8 litres) of petrol has gone from less than $3 before the war to more than $4.27 as of Thursday, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).

The increased cost of energy and transportation has trickled down to the entire economy, fuelling inflation at a time when affordability had become one of the key issues in US electoral politics.

Trump and his allies have argued that the war was necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

But before the war, Trump himself had said repeatedly that Iran’s nuclear programme had been “obliterated” by the June 2025 US strikes against the country’s uranium enrichment facilities.

And US intelligence officials have testified to Congress that they have no evidence that Iran is building a nuclear bomb.

Rogers, the Michigan Senate candidate, pushed to defend the war during the debate on Wednesday.

“You want to pay $8 [for] a gallon of gas, let Iran get a nuclear weapon. You lose control of that whole region,” he said.

At the same time, Rogers has also called for an end to the conflict.

In a recent campaign commercial filmed in a grocery store, the Republican candidate said, “The war with Iran needs to end, and end quickly.”

The position is echoed by other Republicans in tough House and Senate races.

In neighbouring Ohio, Senator Jon Husted has called for a “quick” end to the war as well. In Iowa, Congresswoman Ashley Hinson, who is running for the Senate, said she told Trump that the conflict should come to an “immediate and successful end”. In Maine, Senator Susan Collins has highlighted her vote in favour of several War Powers Resolutions.

Still, Trump, who is the leader of the Republican Party, has suggested that he may renew all-out fighting with Iran after the midterm vote next month, and he has promoted the war as a historic success.

“I think it’s one of the greatest things we’ve done. We’ve stopped Iran from having a nuclear weapon,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday.

“It’s one of the best things that we’ve done, and it took a lot of courage to do it because no other president was willing to do it.”

Despite the overall unpopularity of the war, most Republicans continue to support it.

A Pew Research Center poll released earlier this month showed that 63 percent of Republican respondents said they approve of Trump’s handling of the conflict.

The IGA survey, taken in August, put the number at 74 percent. But only 34 percent of Republican respondents said they “strongly approve” of Trump’s handling of the war – down from 40 percent in April.

Guyer suggested that the lack of enthusiastic support for the war in the Republican base may hurt the party in the upcoming elections.

“It means that Republicans aren’t necessarily walking away from the president, but their support for him has a lot less conviction,” he told Al Jazeera.

“That could have implications if they actually show up to vote [and] if they are going to be involved in campaigning.”

With the elections less than two weeks away, it’s apparent that the Democrats see the war as an Achilles heel for Republicans, and they are invoking the conflict incessantly to undermine Trump-backed candidates all over the country.

At a Senate debate watch party attended by dozens of El-Sayed’s supporters in Detroit on Wednesday, Al Jazeera asked Democratic Senator Chris Murphy – who recently returned from a visit to the Middle East – about the war. His answer was all about the US economy, not the geopolitics of the region.

“Well, diesel prices here in Detroit are already above $6 a gallon, and they’re going to go higher if this war restarts. Mike Rogers just said in the debate that he’s going to support the war, which is basically a death sentence for the American economy,” Murphy told Al Jazeera.

“There’s a big choice for Michigan voters to make here. If you want this war to continue for another year, if you want gas prices to climb to $8 a gallon, vote for Mike Rogers. If you want the war to end, if you want prices to come down, then vote for Abdul El-Sayed.”