England's World Cup fate is resting on a miracle

Fri, 11 Sept, 7:50 pm, Final score, Rabbitohs 10, Knights 20

Sat, 12 Sept, 4:05 pm, Final score, Warriors 16, Dolphins 26

Sat, 12 Sept, 7:50 pm, Final score, Sharks 26, Cowboys 16

Sun, 13 Sept, 4:05 pm, Final score, Panthers 19, Roosters 12

Sat, 19 Sept, 7:50 pm, Final score, Roosters 46, Sharks 10

Sun, 20 Sept, 4:05 pm, Final score, Warriors 10, Knights 12

Fri, 25 Sept, 7:50 pm, Final score, Dolphins 20, Roosters 36

Sun, 27 Sept, 4:00 pm, Final score, Panthers 14, Knights 22

Sun, 4 Oct, 7:30 pm, Final score, Roosters 19, Knights 18

England's World Cup campaign may well be over but throwing themselves at the feet of the rugby league gods and praying for mercy is a fitting fate for a tournament that has seemed beyond their control from the start.

After their 34-12 win over Papua New Guinea in Wollongong on Friday night, the English need a Tongan win over Samoa by at least 46 points in order to fall backwards into a semi-final berth.

It's a byzantine tournament structure, one which has copped plenty of heat since it dawned on everyone that England's opener against Tonga was essentially a de facto elimination game.

That loss sent England off the road before they'd even started moving and they've spent the past two weeks in purgatory, hoping for a salvation they barely had a say in given they'd already lost control of their destiny.

Against the Kumuls they played like that knowledge caught up with them. There were moments of slick attack and individual brilliance in the first half as they ran out to a 22-0 lead in as many minutes.

Their spine combined nicely, especially for AJ Brimson and Dom Young's tries, and Matty Smith won't recieve a finer gift this Christmas than the offload Kai Pearce-Paul gave him for his try.

For a few minutes it looked as though they'd chew well into the points turnaround they'd need if they were to stumble into the knockout phase.

But then the errors came, thick and fast and often. They did not stop until Matty Ashton dropped it in contact inside the final minutes to record England's 20th mistake of the night.

By the end, England were limping home amid a spirited Kumul revival that threatened to turn the game into a genuine contest.

The gap was just 24-12 with 12 minutes left and only some good England scrambling defence stopped it from being even tighter.

It was spearheaded by ripping winger Dudley Dutoi and five-eighth Gairo Voro, who started out as a diamond in the rough but is looking brighter every time he's exposed to the top level.

The Kumuls won the second half 12-10, and while last week's loss to Samoa was a poor one, it's easy to see better days ahead for them.

Dutoi and Voro are proof the pathways from local football can produce capable and exciting players, and there's the potential for plenty more of them with the looming arrival of the PNG Chiefs.

As they splash around in their rivers of gold some of it is bound to trickle down to the national side.

There is money and talent in Papua New Guinea, and if you smash enough of that together, you're cooking with gas.

For England, the future is less certain and not just over the next few days as they pray for a Tongan massacre.

Their run through the tournament has been dogged with constant debate on the future of the sport in its birthplace, and the rise of the international game in the Pacific has spotlighted how rugby league in Europe, and England especially, is standing still at best.

Barring a succession of miracle results, this game will be the only win by a northern hemisphere team over a southern hemisphere side in the entire tournament.

England or Great Britain have not beaten Australia since 2006. Fiji scored more points against the Kangaroos last week than England managed in all of last year's Ashes series.

They have not beaten New Zealand since 2018. Their loss to Tonga was their heaviest ever defeat to a Tier 2 nation.

As the gap threatens to widen, there's no shortage of opinions on how to close it and all anybody can seem to agree on is what has to happen, even if nobody can agree on how it will.

The English game needs a silver bullet that will raise the standard in Super League and thus ensure more consistent and quality matches for the league's best players and teams.

It needs more players in NRL systems, because that will make them better players, but not so many that their own competition is devoid of homegrown stars, a conundrum that is a very fine balance.

It needs things that are easy to want but hard to find, like money to invest in itself and the time to let that investment grow, and it needs more patience from a fanbase that is as desperate for success as it is accustomed to failure.

Everybody knows where they want to go but they're all shouting out different directions and, as a result, the wheels keep spinning but nothing really moves.

Perhaps the changes that can bring about such a transformation are looming.

The undercurrent of England's campaign has been the ongoing negotiations between the NRL and the Rugby Football League about the Australians taking partial or total control of the game in the UK.

If it does go through, in whatever form it can, perhaps it will be the shock to the system the game is after. The injection of capital could bring about the kind of structural transformations rugby league so often struggles to implement.

But England enters that deal at the NRL's mercy, just like they're at the mercy of the fates in the days to come.

They're not fighting for a future as much as they are hoping for one, as sure as they're hoping for a Tonga win by 46 points on Sunday.