Kyari: 33.5m food insecurity projection not political forecast

The Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Senator Abubakar Kyari, has cautioned opposition politicians against using the October 2026 Cadre Harmonisé food security assessment for political propaganda ahead of the 2027 general elections. Kyari, in a statement on Monday, said the projection that 33.5 million Nigerians could face severe food and nutrition insecurity between June and August 2027 should not be interpreted as an assessment of the performance or electoral prospects of any political administration.

He described attempts by opposition voices to link the projection to President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid as a misrepresentation of the technical assessment. The minister explained that the Cadre Harmonisé was developed by the Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS), alongside regional and technical partners, to identify food and nutrition security risks and enable governments and development partners to respond early.

He said the assessment, supported by organisations including the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), World Food Programme (WFP), FEWS NET, UNICEF and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), was not designed as an election forecast. According to him, the projected figure of 33.5 million represents a decline from the 34.8 million projected for the corresponding period in 2026.

Kyari, however, noted that the assessment does not conduct retrospective analysis after the projected period to establish whether the forecasts were accurate. He identified climate change, inconsistent rainfall, prolonged dry spells and disruptions to weather patterns associated with the Super El Niño phenomenon as some of the factors contributing to food and nutrition insecurity.

The minister said these challenges had affected planting seasons and crop production, particularly among farmers dependent on rain-fed agriculture. He added that the assessment did not attribute the projected food insecurity figures to the continuation of any particular political administration. Kyari said the Federal Government was responding to the identified risks through expanded access to fertiliser and other agricultural inputs, increased mechanisation, irrigation and dry-season farming, improved agricultural financing, and investments in storage, processing and climate-resilient agriculture.

He also highlighted improved security in some farming communities, saying it had enabled farmers who previously could not access their farmlands to resume cultivation. According to him, areas such as Marte and Guzamala in Borno State, which were previously inaccessible to data collectors, have recorded improved stability, allowing the Cadre Harmonisé assessment to be conducted.

The minister further listed progress in fertiliser distribution and local blending, support for smallholder farmers, mechanisation partnerships, expansion of dry-season farming and improved agricultural financing through the Bank of Agriculture as some of the government’s interventions. He acknowledged that the interventions would not resolve the country’s food insecurity challenges overnight, describing the problem as longstanding and structural.

“Food insecurity is a longstanding and structural challenge that has developed over many years and predates this administration,” he said. Kyari, however, maintained that agriculture had recorded progress since Tinubu assumed office, adding that the government remained committed to increasing food production and strengthening the country’s food supply systems.

“As Minister, I accept the responsibility that comes with this challenge. When the data identifies a risk, our duty is to act on it, not to hide from it,” he said. He urged political actors to exercise caution when discussing food security data, warning against reducing the livelihoods and welfare of millions of Nigerians to political talking points.

The minister said the government welcomed scrutiny and constructive criticism but insisted that technical assessments should not be deliberately misrepresented for electoral purposes. He added that the government would use the findings of the Cadre Harmonisé to strengthen interventions, support farmers, protect livelihoods and improve access to safe, nutritious and affordable food.