NDC to lose 29 seats, NPP to gain 12 in 2028 elections – Global InfoAnalytics projects

A new projection by Global InfoAnalytics has revealed that the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC) could see its parliamentary representation decline, while the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) is projected to gain seats in the 2028 parliamentary elections.

The research organisation’s first parliamentary seat projection for the 2028 general elections estimates that the NPP will increase its current 88 seats to 100, while the NDC’s representation could fall from 185 to 154 seats.

Despite the projected decline, the NDC is expected to retain a majority in Parliament, with the model assigning it 55.8 per cent of the total seats, compared with 36.2 per cent for the NPP.

However, the projection leaves 22 constituencies without a definitive outcome. Of these, 20 have been classified as “not disclosed”, while the remaining two are considered toss-ups.

The Eastern Region has the highest number of undisclosed constituencies, with five, followed by the Ashanti Region with four. The Western Region accounts for three, while the Upper East has two.

Central, Greater Accra, Oti, Upper West, Western North and Bono regions each have one constituency in the undisclosed category.

The two toss-up constituencies are in the Ashanti and Bono regions and could go either way.

The 20 undisclosed seats represent 7.2 per cent of Parliament, while the two toss-up constituencies account for 0.7 per cent.

The projection, which uses Global InfoAnalytics’ Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model, suggests that the NDC could face a reduced parliamentary majority in 2028 if the estimates materialise.

However, the projections, generated using its MRP model, are estimates and should not be taken as a definitive indication of the outcome of the 2028 parliamentary elections.

The research firm noted that voting preferences in the 20 undisclosed constituencies have not been made public, while the two toss-up seats remain too close to call.