Why even a strong El Niño does not guarantee a poor Indian monsoon
The IMD refers to this level as 'deficient’. However, 1997 had ‘average’ rainfall
A farmer walks on dry farmland in Shivamogga district, Karnataka, on September 16, 2026.
In the summer of 1997, one of the strongest El Niños of the 20th century took shape in the Pacific Ocean. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted a monsoon rainfall deficit of 8% below the average, as was expected in El Niño years. However, by the end of September that year, rainfall levels were nearly normal.
This year, a “ferocious” El Niño is taking shape, and is expected to peak only in December. The 2026 southwest monsoon ended nearly 13% below the long-term average of 87 cm. East and Northeast India had their driest season since records began in 1901.
agricultural research and technology / climate change / weather science / Monsoon / rains
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