Crude oil to average $79 per barrel in 2027 – World Bank
Crude oil is expected to average $79.0 per barrel in 2027, the October 2026 Commodity Prices Outlook has revealed. Modest increases in oil output in advanced economies, such as Canada and the United States, as well as in Latin America and the Caribbean, are on track to offset only a small share of very large production losses in the Middle East.
Crude oil is expected to average $79.0 per barrel in 2027, the October 2026 Commodity Prices Outlook has revealed.
It is expected to drop further to $70 per barrel in 2028.
However, in 2026, the commodity price would average US$91 per barrel.
According to the report, global oil consumption is anticipated to contract by 2.5% in 2026, the third-largest decline on record, after the pandemic year of 2020 and the oil market turmoil of 1980.
“Lower oil consumption this year reflects disruptions to petrochemicals production owing to feedstock shortages and curbs on exports, substitution away from oil in some industrial processes amid high prices, and reduced need for transport fuels as adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) increases, especially in China”.
Meanwhile, global oil supply is projected to fall by 5.2% in 2026, the largest decline in more than four decades outside the 2020 global recession.
Modest increases in oil output in advanced economies, such as Canada and the United States, as well as in Latin America and the Caribbean, are on track to offset only a small share of very large production losses in the Middle East.
Next year, the report said operational adaptations that have facilitated increased crude oil exports from the Gulf region in recent months are assumed to remain effective, allowing shipments to continue gradually building.
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