Lessons from the 2023 presidential elections: Obi Vs Wike, By Sunday Adelaja

Tinubu’s political journey illustrates the importance of building these layers over a long period. Wike’s current Rainbow Coalition illustrates the power — and potential limits — of cross-party elite coordination. Obi’s 2023 campaign demonstrated how rapidly a candidate can mobilise millions of voters without initially possessing a comparable traditional party structure… The historical question now is whether either model can acquire the missing pieces.

My goal in this article is to go beyond promoting a particular candidate like I did in the past. This time I am trying to dissect the intricacies of political science in Nigeria. I am trying to analyse and bring out nuggets that could benefit all political players in the future.

Unfortunately, from the comments I have seen so far, most people tend to be quick to judge the articles from the perspective of partisanship. Their view is often black and white. It is either the article is for their preferred candidate or they are against it. If you’re not for us, then you’re against us, they say.

That is unfortunate. Because these articles are all about hidden truths; secrets that are hidden to those directly involved in the politicking process in Nigeria. It will take someone detached from the realities on the ground to be able to see and pinpoint these facts. If taken seriously, these articles could help shape a better political future, especially for the opposition politicians and the future aspirants to the highest political posts in our beloved country.

In this particular article I’ll like to encourage my Obidient followers not to be in a hurry to condemn this piece, but be careful in analysing the facts I present, perhaps they will be able to learn a few things that might help their political future.

The most consequential question is what could have happened immediately after the 2023 election.

Rather than allowing the Obidient phenomenon to remain primarily centered on the personality of Peter Obi, it could have been converted into a permanent civic-political organisation.

Six geopolitical zones → State organisations → Local government chapters → Ward organisations → Polling-unit volunteers → Professional associations → Diaspora chapters → Policy and research institutions → Candidate development.

The movement could have recruited people not merely to support Obi, but to build a political philosophy around:

That would have transformed personal popularity into institutional capital.

The distinction is important because political movements survive leaders only when the institution becomes larger than the individual.

The most interesting lesson from Wike is therefore not necessarily that his policies or political choices are superior. It is his understanding of leverage.

Wike has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to operate outside conventional political alignments.

In 2023, he remained a PDP governor while refusing to support the PDP presidential candidate.

In the current political environment, he remains associated with the PDP while serving in Tinubu’s APC-led government and organising a coalition supporting Tinubu’s presidential re-election.

This demonstrates a particular political philosophy: Party membership is one source of power; relationships are another.

Wike appears to place considerable emphasis on the second.

And that is where the Obi comparison becomes powerful. Obi’s political capital was largely horizontal: Millions of people who felt connected to a national idea.

Wike’s capital has been more vertical: Political leaders connected to political structures.

Tinubu’s capital is both: vertical organisation + horizontal alliances.

The strongest political architecture generally requires both. That is why I am not going to focus on Tinubu in this article. From my calculations, the incumbent president is going to easily win the 2027 election. However I focus on Obi and Wike because they are for the future of Nigerian politics as individuals. What they do after the 2027 elections will determine their places in history of Nigerian politics.

A politician needs people who love the message and people who can organise the machinery.

The 2023 election should therefore be studied not only as an election that Obi lost, but an extraordinary demonstration of political market demand.

INEC recorded more than six million votes for Obi.

The subsequent collapse of Labour Party’s electoral performance in many governorship contests showed that presidential popularity did not automatically translate into a durable statewide political organisation.

That gap between electoral enthusiasm and organisational infrastructure is perhaps the most important lesson.

What does this mean for Obi and Wike’s future?

Rather than predicting who will become Nigeria’s president, the more useful question is: What would each man have to demonstrate to become a viable national presidential contender?

For Obi, the critical question is whether his enormous personal following can become a durable national organisation capable of recruiting political leaders, winning legislative and governorship contests, building structures across the North and South, and maintaining unity beyond the presidential campaign.

Obi’s political trajectory has already changed significantly: he moved from the Labour Party into the broader opposition realignment.

For Wike, the question is different. His strength is political organisation and elite relationships. The unresolved question is whether the Rainbow Coalition can develop broad, durable popular legitimacy across Nigeria, rather than functioning primarily as a network of political actors supporting a particular presidential candidate.

Those are fundamentally different challenges.

The Real Contest in 2027 and Beyond: Popularity Versus Organisation

Nigeria’s political history suggests that neither mass popularity nor elite organisations alone are sufficient.

Tinubu’s political journey illustrates the importance of building these layers over a long period. Wike’s current Rainbow Coalition illustrates the power — and potential limits — of cross-party elite coordination. Obi’s 2023 campaign demonstrated how rapidly a candidate can mobilise millions of voters without initially possessing a comparable traditional party structure.

The historical question now is whether either model can acquire the missing pieces.

Conclusion: The Lesson is Bigger than Obi, Wike or Tinubu

The deepest lesson from these three political careers is that political capital has different forms.

Peter Obi demonstrated the extraordinary power of mass mobilisation.

Nyesom Wike has demonstrated the importance of political leverage, coalition-building and relationships across party boundaries.

Bola Tinubu demonstrated the value of long-term institution-building, succession planning and political alliances.

The most consequential political organisation would theoretically combine the strengths represented by all three models: Obi’s ability to inspire millions + Wike’s ability to negotiate across political structures + Tinubu’s long-term capacity to build and maintain a political machinery.

Whether Nigeria’s future political actors can create such a synthesis will be more consequential than the personality of any single politician.

And that may be the most important lesson of the 2023 election: Winning millions of votes is political capital; converting those votes into institutions, leaders, structures and enduring alliances is political power.

These articles are not for the masses, they are not for popularity contests. But like they say, a word is enough for the wise. If these four series articles helps some future generations of Nigerian politicians even if only one person, then it would have been worth the efforts.

Sunday Adelaja is a Nigerian born leader, transformation strategist, pastor and innovator. He was based in Ukraine.