2027: Youth voters to reshape polls, Lai Omotola predicts

…Projects Tinubu with slim lead, says free, fair poll critical By Ishola Balogun The publisher of Politico.ng, Lai Omotola, has projected a closely contested 2027 presidential election, predicting that President Bola Tinubu currently holds a slim lead over former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar. Omotola, who presented the third edition of the platform’s electoral map forecast for November, said the three leading contenders were separated by narrow margins, with Tinubu in first position, Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) second and Atiku of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) third.

“As it stands today, we project a slim margin of victory among the three leading contestants, with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu leading with a small margin and Mr Peter Obi coming second and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in third place, all with close margins,” he said. The projection comes amid increasing political activities ahead of the 2027 general elections, with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), ADC and NDC intensifying their preparations.

According to the forecast, the APC is projected to win 13 states, the NDC 13 states, while the ADC is expected to secure 11 states. Omotola said the APC was projected to win all states in the South-West and North-Central zones, while the NDC was expected to dominate the South-East and South-South, alongside Kano State and the Federal Capital Territory.

The ADC, he added, was projected to win most states in the North-East and North-West, except Kano and Zamfara. He, however, stressed that the projection was conditional on the conduct of a credible election. “The above projection is with a caveat: if the election is free and fair,” he said. Omotola also predicted that the 2027 elections could record the highest voter turnout in Nigeria’s history, projecting participation of about 40 per cent, compared with approximately 29 per cent recorded in the 2023 presidential election.

He attributed the anticipated increase largely to the emergence of first-time voters, particularly young Nigerians. “There are about 68 million new voters that will be voting for the first time in 2027 elections and the majority of these voters are youths,” he said. “Unlike before, young people between the ages of 18 and 49 will dominate the election.” The Politico.ng publisher warned politicians against relying on conventional campaign strategies, arguing that changing voter preferences and political dynamics could determine the outcome of the election.

“As momentum begins to build towards 2027, the dynamics of our elections continue to change and electorate preferences continue to change as well. The political field has changed dramatically. Any politician that enters the field with the mentality of business as usual will face imminent defeat,” he said. Reviewing major political developments in October, Omotola recalled that the APC held its inaugural campaign rally in Kaduna, led by President Tinubu.

He also cited the debate over fuel subsidy following Atiku’s proposal for its restoration and the Federal Government’s subsequent temporary reduction of petrol prices through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL). On the electoral process, he raised concerns over the Independent National Electoral Commission’s preliminary voters’ register, alleging that it had been “diluted with AI-generated names” as the commission worked to meet the legal requirement to publish the register at least 90 days before the election.

Speaking on the broader electoral environment, Omotola said reports from the field indicated that opposition parties were facing significant obstacles to their campaign activities, while the ruling APC was grappling with internal disagreements. “Opposition parties are encountering stiff resistance to campaign. APC is witnessing internal bickerings.

These may affect all the three parties in their own way,” he said. He clarified that the electoral map was not the product of a scientific opinion poll but a projection based on long-term observation and political analysis. According to him, the methodology draws on historical trends, voting traditions, behavioural patterns, emerging issues and other political indicators.

Omotola urged political parties, electoral institutions and other stakeholders to prioritise electoral integrity and national stability ahead of the polls. “It will be in the interest of the nation for all stakeholders to ensure that the elections are peaceful, free and fair. This will be a turning point for Nigeria’s democracy and the country will be a better place for it,” he said.