Live: Counting begins in New Zealand election

A tight election result looms in New Zealand as polls show the leaders of both major parties — incumbent National Party leader Christopher Luxon and Labour's Chris Hipkins — may struggle to form a government alone.

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Wondering which results will be critical to the overall outcome this evening?

Experts say a few could indicate which side of politics will emerge strongest.

One is turnout. A higher turnout is likely to favour left-wing parties like Labour and the Green party, said Tom Jamieson, a senior lecturer in political science at Victoria University of Wellington.

Second, experts will watch to see whether the Opportunity party either wins an electorate or receives more than 5 per cent of the vote and enter parliament.

"Polls suggest a left-leaning coalition is likely dependent on them making it to parliament (and joining that coalition), so if they do not, it is much more likely the incumbent government will be re-elected," Dr Jamieson said.

Next is the number of overhang seats — which are additional seats created when a party gets more electorate seats than its share of the party vote would indicate (we'll cover more on this in a post soon).

"If one side wins considerably more overhang seats than the other, that could dictate who can form a government afterwards," Dr Jamieson said.

Finally, Massey University professor of politics Richard Shaw says he'll be watching the Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's seat of Botany.

"He holds it with a huge majority, but if that margin falls appreciably it could be an indicator that National are in trouble in the electorates.

"If so, the chances of them creating an overhang may fall — and with it, the likelihood of a second term for the coalition."

Observing Kiwis voting today in Auckland was a rather surreal experience — at least for this Australian journalist.

New Zealand does elections slightly differently from Australia. There are strict election "blackout" rules that restrict all forms of advertising, commentary and campaigning.

The blackout even applies to reporting, with media banned from broadcasting anything that might influence voters.

So when you visit a voting booth on election day, it is a bit different to the (occasionally rowdy) festival of democracy you get in Australia.

Nobody is badgering voters with how to vote cards, and there are no party banners, signs or corflutes.

At the voting place the ABC visited in Auckland's inner suburbs this morning, there was one very familiar thing on hand, however — a sausage sandwich.

Voting closed at 7pm New Zealand time (5pm AEDT) and vote counting has now begun.

The first results are expected to be entered before 7.30pm (NZ time).

You can access the results on the NZ Electoral Commission's results website: http://electionresults.govt.nz

• results from 50 per cent of voting places by 10pm (NZ time)

• results from 95 per cent of voting places by 11.30pm (NZ time)

However, the count on election night only provides the preliminary results.

We’ll talk a bit more about when the official result is due a bit later.

Voting has closed in New Zealand's election and we will soon see results trickling in.

In an election campaign overshadowed by cost of living pressures and an economy buffeted by international shocks, the National Party has been making its case to stay in government and Labour has tried to prise back votes it needs to regain office.

But experts say both parties ran negative campaigns.

"I'm not sure anyone has much enjoyed it," Richard Shaw, a professor of politics at Massey University, told the ABC.

"The policy contest which marked the opening stanzas has largely fallen away into an acrimonious exchange between the left and the right about how to game the electoral system through strategic voting."

National and Labour focused on criticising not just their rival parties but also the people involved, with Labour trying to seize on the unpopularity of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and National seeking to exploit similar sentiment about Labour's Chris Hipkins, said Tom Jamieson, a senior lecturer in political science at Victoria University of Wellington.

"For a party leading the incumbent government, National ran less on their record than you might have expected on their record and more about what their opponents were likely to do in power."

On the other hand, smaller parties including New Zealand First, ACT, the Green Party, Te Pāti Māori and the Opportunity party focused their efforts on policy initiatives and their vision for the country, Dr Jamieson said.

"In an electorate with a plurality that has consistently indicated they are on the wrong track, it could be that these parties benefit from dissatisfaction with the direction of the government," he said.

Polls have indicated it could be a tight election.

Results released tonight will indicate the election outcome and are expected to arrive over several hours. The official count begins tomorrow, and the Electoral Commission is aiming to release the official results by November 27.

Professor Shaw expected it would be a long three weeks and said special votes — which take longer to count — may be consequential.

"We may have a clear result tonight, but that seems unlikely," he said.

That stands for "welcome" in Māori, so come join us as we begin our live coverage of the 2026 New Zealand election!

Voting has just closed at 7pm local time (5pm AEDT).

We're expecting to see the first results coming in soon, but the official results are not anticipated until Friday, November 27.

The polls are showing both major parties may struggle to form a government alone, so it's not just Chris vs Chris (Luxon and Hipkins, leaders of the National and Labour parties).

The top minor parties may become the "kingmakers" with the power to decide who is next to govern Aotearoa (New Zealand).

This election is expected to be tightly fought, so strap in as we bring you the latest from across the ditch.