Election fever, Dangote Refinery to drive stock investors’ fortune at year end

By Peter Egwuatu The Nigerian stock market is projected to cross the N200 trillion market capitalisation by December 2026, while investors’ returns could exceed 57 per cent. Capital market analysts, who made the projections, said the anticipated listing of shares of Dangote Petroleum Refinery on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), coupled with improved investor confidence, strong corporate earnings, increased market liquidity and favourable macroeconomic developments, would provide further impetus for the equities market.

They also projected that the NGX All-Share Index (ASI), the market’s major performance indicator, could close the year at about 280,000 points. However, some analysts have warned that profit-taking, election-related uncertainties and global economic developments could trigger intermittent volatility. But the analysts agreed that the concern over 2027 general election is around possible policy change adding that if there are no major adverse economic policy developments capable of undermining investor confidence the impact of the election would be less severe.

Market performance so far A review of the market’s performance Year-to-Date, YtD, as at last week, showed that investors’ wealth had increased by N62.76 trillion, representing a 60.47 per cent appreciation. Market capitalisation, which measures the total value of listed equities, rose from N99.376 trillion at the beginning of the year to N162.134 trillion last week.

Similarly, the NGX ASI appreciated by 60.5 per cent, rising from 155,613.03 points at the beginning of the year to 249,710.59 points. The impressive performance has been supported by relative stability in the foreign exchange market, renewed investor confidence, strong corporate earnings, easing inflation, improved liquidity in the financial system and the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to reduce the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 23 per cent.

Analysts’ projections Speaking to Financial Vanguard on his projection for the year-end, Olatunde Amolegbe, immediate past President, Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS), and Managing Director, Arthur Stevens Asset Management Limited, said he remained cautiously optimistic about the equities market. He stated: “I remain cautiously optimistic about the Nigerian stock market for the rest of the year.

My expectation is that the All-Share Index will deliver a full-year return of approximately 57.65%. “Although the market has recorded impressive gains so far, I expect some moderation in the coming weeks, as investors may take profits following the significant rally we have witnessed. We could also see some volatility as investors reposition their portfolios ahead of the new year.

“On the positive side, relatively strong corporate earnings, improved investor confidence, increased domestic participation and ongoing economic reforms should continue to provide support for the market. There are still opportunities in fundamentally strong companies, particularly those with sustainable earnings and attractive valuations. “However, inflationary pressures, high interest rates, exchange-rate uncertainties and global economic developments remain key downside risks.

“In terms of market capitalisation, I expect it to remain elevated, with further growth possible depending on equity price movements and new listings. Overall, I see the market maintaining a positive underlying outlook, although investors should be prepared for some corrections along the way.” On the performance of the market in the first three quarters of the year, Amolegbe said: “The Nigerian stock market has had a remarkable performance across the first three quarters of 2026.

“The first quarter was particularly impressive, with the All-Share Index gaining approximately 29.35%. This was driven by strong buying interest, improved investor sentiment and a broad repricing of equities. “In the second quarter, the market gained another 13.98%. Although we experienced some profit-taking and intermittent corrections, the overall market direction remained positive.

“The third quarter also recorded positive performance, with the ASI advancing by approximately 9.50%. ‘‘However, we began to see a more selective market, as investors became increasingly focused on corporate earnings, valuations and the fundamentals of individual companies. “By the end of September, the market had recorded a year-to-date gain of approximately 61.43%, with market capitalisation standing at about N163.1 trillion.

“The market has remained strong since then, with the ASI recording further gains into November. However, I think it is important to note that after such a significant rally, some consolidation and profit-taking should be expected.” Commenting on the possible impact of the 2027 general election on the market, he said: “Yes, I believe the 2027 general election will have some influence on market sentiment, particularly as political activities gather mom