Winds of change are coming for Australia as selection storm brews in South Africa

Crushing defeat in second Test raises fresh questions about fragile batting lineup before Cape Town decider

The old adage that it is harder to get out of the Australia cricket team than into it is about to be put to the test. The horror show against South Africa in the second Test that ended in defeat for Australia by an innings and 31 runs exposed familiar fractures in the lineup that have less than a week between matches to be repaired.

The Australian selectors have shown in South Africa they are prepared to change a winning formula with the ball, while they have long been reluctant to cut ties with proven performers with the bat. But the first innings capitulation as Australia were all out for 99 in Gqeberha could force their hand to make a tough call or two – or perhaps more – as a selection storm brews before the series decider in Cape Town.

Marnus Labuschagne remains a persistent problem though arguably not the most pressing concern with Australia forced to consider other selection dilemmas. Even with three scores in the 30s from four innings in this series against South Africa, Labuschagne’s numbers are damning. So was his decision to loft off-spinner Simon Harmer into a stiff breeze and toward the long on fence when time at the crease was Australia’s only hope of escaping St George’s Park with a series lead.

The 32-year-old’s barren spell without a Test century has now extended well beyond three years and he has averaged 22.09 in 47 innings since last raising the bat against England at Old Trafford. He has not averaged more than 40 in a Test series since compiling 207 runs with three half-centuries on home turf against Pakistan in 2023-24. A Test average that sat above 61 in late 2022 has now dropped to 43.36.

Labuschagne had been clinging on to his spot since long before he was left out of the side for three Tests against West Indies that followed the 2025 World Test Championship final. Even with the numbers stacked against him, Labuschagne could still be handed one more last chance with a vacancy widely expected to open at the top of the order to partner Travis Head. The most likely route to another Test lifeline could therefore be for Labuschagne to open the innings in Cape Town, just as he did in the WTC final defeat last year.

Cameron Green and Josh Inglis are expected to be available for the third Test after recovering from injuries sustained during the one-day leg of the tour of South Africa. Green is nearing a return after suffering an abdominal strain in the third ODI and spent time batting in the nets as the second Test played out at St George’s Park. The 27-year-old once rivalled Labuschagne as the batter most under pressure, until he earned some credits with a defiant ton and a half-century from No 5 in the drawn series against Bangladesh. Head coach Andrew McDonald has said Green is unlikely to bowl in the Test series against South Africa but his batting alone should be enough to ensure selection, if fit, with Australia needing reinforcements to help fill the top six.

Inglis, on the other hand, remains far from a walk-up starter. The keeper-batter has become a mainstay of Australia’s white ball sides but has been unable to make the most of his opportunities in the longest format since a century on debut against Sri Lanka. Cooper Connolly is also back in the frame though the spin-bowling all-rounder’s hopes of adding to his one Test could rest on whether selectors are prepared to back the versatile but underperforming Beau Webster as well as the conditions at Newlands.

The three batters forming a queue just as Australia weigh up their options are all best suited to the middle order, just as gaps appear to be forming at the top. The selection gamble to recall Nic Maddinson after almost a decade in the Test wilderness and more than 18 months without first-class cricket, in part while recovering from testicular cancer, has shown few signs of paying off.

The 34-year-old looked out of his depth as he returned with a 33-ball duck and even a quick-fire 48 in the second innings in Durban only left a glimmer of hope that better was to come. Kagiso Rabada has troubled more established batters than Maddinson but the manner in which he was dismissed by the South Africa quick for another duck and eight in Gqeberha is likely to bring an abrupt end to the left-handed batter’s shock selection.

Shifting Matt Renshaw back to the top order and letting him settle in a position where he has been comfortable at domestic level could resolve the most glaring issue. It would also open up a spot for Green to return in the middle order while leaving the door ajar to perhaps call in Inglis or Connolly for the third Test against South Africa.

Australia have not lost a bilateral Test series since early 2023. They have not been defeated by a side other than India since Pakistan claimed a 1-0 series victory in the wake of “sandpapergate” in the UAE in 2018. The natural flow state of the side under captain Pat Cummins has been to ride out the highs and the lows. But the long journey through the top end of Australia, a tour of South Africa and home series against New Zealand, then the renewal of the tensest of rivalries in India and England already looks like being blown off course. Winds of change are finally coming for the Australia Test team. And this time, even Cummins’ unwavering calm might not be enough to weather the storm.