Cop31 live: slight drop in fossil fuel emissions revealed as conference enters second day

Good morning from Turkey and welcome to the second day of Cop31, the UN gathering that is taking place, again, to help prod indolent countries clear of catastrophic planetary heating.

A lot of angst was vented on the first day of the summit over whether this goal is being achieved, and even if Cop is the best forum in which to achieve it. Perhaps sensing the fractured, distracted geopolitical mood, Chris Bowen, Australia’s climate minister and Cop negotiations chief, plaintively urged countries to “show the world that multilateralism works. Let’s show the world we are equal to the challenge.”

Further evidence, if it was needed, was unveiled yesterday showing the world is failing rather badly in this challenge to stem its growing fever. But research published this morning shows carbon emissions from fossil fuels are falling slightly, and there is still hope here in Antalya that things can change. If not then, well, what are we all doing here? Right?

About 100,000 delegates crammed into the well-tended conference venue yesterday and the long queues for registration badges led the UN to plead for people to return for them today if attendance on Monday wasn’t compulsory.

Tuesday will lay the groundwork for the arrival tomorrow of leaders from more than 90 countries, with notable absentees including the heads of the US and China. Today’s theme is “energy and transport, touching on a key goal of this Cop to get the world to agree to greatly increase the share of energy used via electricity”. That power will, hopefully, be clean.

Let’s see how close to consensus the world will be on that. At the very least, the Turkish baked goods promise to be delicious and there is some tasteful art constructed of discarded waste to look at. Onwards.

Bus horror update. So I am still on the bus and it has been three hours. We think we are still half an hour away (I said that an hour ago).

Some people got off and tried the tram. Splitters. We watched a packed tram go past and leave a few of the splitters on the platform.

Some people are walking. We are now a forming a community forged in bus hell. Philippa has some Simit – like a Turkish bagel. Here’s a picture of us.

Soaring oil and gas prices following the war in Iran have encouraged people to look beyond fossil fuels, leading to an easing of climate-damaging carbon emissions this year.

Carbon dioxide from oil, gas and coal is forecast to flatline for 2026, based on data from the year so far, according to a comprehensive assessment by scientists. Emissions from burning oil alone will drop by 2% as drivers economise on fuel use and flock to electric vehicles instead.

The findings, presented on Tuesday morning at the Cop31 climate talks hosted by Turkey in Antalya, show both the impact of the Iran war and the global expansion of cheap renewable energy, chiefly solar and wind power.

Talk of a global turnaround would be premature, however, the report’s authors and other analysts said. The reduction in emissions from fossil fuels for 2026 will be about 0.4% compared with last year.

Yet this year’s slight fall could be temporary, and was more than offset by increased emissions from deforestation and land use change, following major fires in south-east Asia and further conversions of wild land to agriculture.

Many factors could disrupt the fragile trend of slowing emissions from fossil fuels, including an intensified expansion of coal in India, an easing of oil prices and US president Donald Trump’s enthusiasm for fossil fuels. Much greater investment in renewable energy, and low-carbon technology such as electric vehicles, would still be required to make permanent reductions in annual emissions, the report’s authors said.

In an attempt to get to the venue a bit early, I decided to ditch the tram and try the special Cop31 buses. This was a bad decision.

We have just reached the two-and-a-half-hour mark on the bus and are still crawling through Antalya traffic. New friendships are being spawned in here. We are starting to eat each other’s food.

I want to thank Philippa Bayley from Groundwork for the walnut and chocolate biscuits she snaffled from her hotel buffet.

Exceptional, which is more than I can say for the traffic.