Pope Leo vs. Javier Milei: How political is the pope?

The 2.5 million people lining the streets of Buenos Aires to get a glimpse of Pope Leo XIV on Monday left little doubt as to his influence in Argentina and beyond.

"It's very important for Argentinians, for our unity and, above all, to reaffirm faith in the Catholic Church in this country. Argentina is a country of faith, it's always been so," one attendee told DW of the open air Mass.

"The mood from the public about his visit is overwhelmingly positive," Justin McLellan, Vatican correspondent for the National Catholic Reporter, told DW from Argentina's capital. "I think that people are big fans of Leo."

The previous day, Leo had made a series of remarks which many observers took to be criticism of Argentine President Javier Milei and his strict austerity measures, sweeping cuts to social services and the elimination of thousands of public sector jobs.

Afterward, there were suggestions from some of the president's supporters online that the pope, who is returning to duty just a month after cancer surgery, had overstepped his role.

"The economy must be at the service of the people, rather than people being at the service of the economy," said Leo, the first US-born pope, on Sunday. He also mentioned those who "despite hard work, nonetheless, struggle to meet their household's needs."

Leo doubled down on the message on a visit to a care home before Monday's Mass, where he preached to millions.

"It's clearly targeting, without naming, the different policies that the president has put on recently," Jocelyne Cesari, a professor of religion and politics at the University of Birmingham in the UK, told DW, adding that Leo's words were "carefully calibrated."

Throughout its history, estimated by some at close to 2,000 years, the papacy has been a role with huge, and previously very direct, political power. Pope Innocent III, for example, was widely considered the most important man in the Europe in the late 11th and early 12th century. He wielded power over much of Europe and its monarchies, ensuring each territory was run according to Catholic doctrine.

But in the modern day, that power has softened, with 20th and 21st century popes tending to intervene in a broader sense away from direct party politics and policy.

Leo's commitment to walking that tightrope was tested early in his papacy by US President Donald Trump, an ally of Milei, who called him "WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy" in a social media post in April.

"I do not look at my role as being political, a politician," responded Leo. "I'm not afraid of the Trump administration or speaking out loudly of the message of the Gospel, which is what I believe I am here to do, what the Church is here to do." It's a familiar stance, said Cesari.

"That's a line that all popes before him have walked. We tend to forget that the pope is the head of the state, is a diplomat and is a voice for more than 1 billion Catholics, so the role has always been political."

Both Cesari and McLellan agreed that Leo and his modern predecessors are keen to avoid party politics but instead offer guidance to the 1.4 billion Catholics in the world.

"The strategy of the pope is to position himself as a moral authority, his role is not just to say 'vote for X or Y.' His role is to say there are some moral teachings that can be applied to social life and communities, but people must make their personal decisions," said Cesari.

With Argentina a majority Catholic country, it stands to reason that the pope's word holds plenty of sway. But the longer-term question is whether Leo's perceived criticisms of Milei make a difference in Argentina's general election in October 2027.

"People want to be drawn close to him [Leo]. I think the visit to Argentina could have an influence in the election in that he's certainly given his support to the Argentine bishops who have been critical of Milei's austerity policies and his cuts to social programs," said McLellan.

"I think that that could have an impact in the election and that it will elevate and raise the voice of the Catholic Church in Argentina."

But Cesari is not so sure that being sympathetic to a speech transfers to action at the ballot box. "They may revere and respect the pope. But is not clear that that what he says has a direct impact on individual voters," she said.

"His voice will be heard. But from the studies we have, there is not a clear, direct impact on elections. We know that Catholics do not vote in a bloc and we know that lots of them voted for Milei in 2023, even after he called [Leo's predecessor Pope] Francis the representative of evil on Earth."

Milei, a right-wing libertarian and outspoken critic of the ruling class, has long clashed with the Catholic Church. He also called Pope Francis, a native of Argentina, an "imbecile" in 2020 and accused him of promoting communism. He did, however, find a more conciliatory tone on Monday when he called the late Francis an "exceptional figure" and the "most important Argentine in history."

Leo is, McLellan added, "diplomatic by nature." With Trump and Milei both having taken swipes at the Catholic Church in a time of ongoing geopolitical turmoil, that looks to be a critical papal quality.