Global fertilizer prices to drop 12% in 2027, offering potential relief to Ghanaian farmers

Ghana’s agricultural sector could benefit from an anticipated decline in global fertilizer prices in 2027, potentially easing input cost pressures on farmers and supporting food production, although lingering geopolitical tensions and shipping disruptions could undermine the expected relief.

The World Bank Group, in its October Commodity Outlook Report 2026, projects that global fertilizer prices will decline by 12 percent in 2027, following an estimated 14 percent increase in 2026.

The report says the projected decline will be driven by easing input costs, recovering supplies and increased exports from producers outside the Gulf region.

For Ghana, where fertilizer affordability is an important consideration for agricultural production, the expected reduction could provide some relief to farmers and potentially moderate production costs in the 2027 farming season.

However, the outlook suggests that the benefits may not be immediate, as fertilizer prices are expected to remain elevated in 2026 despite recent declines in global markets.

The World Bank notes that its fertilizer price index fell by 22 percent in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter and continued to decline in October, reversing the surge recorded in the second quarter following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite this recovery, the report projects urea prices to average 21 percent higher in 2026, reflecting the sharp increases recorded in the first half of the year. Urea prices are, however, expected to fall by 16 percent in 2027.

Di-ammonium phosphate (DAP), another important fertilizer input, is projected to increase by 7 percent in 2026 before declining by about 18 percent in 2027.

Meanwhile, prices of muriate of potash (MOP) are expected to rise by 10 percent in 2026 before falling by 9 percent in 2027.

The projected declines across the three fertilizer categories could offer Ghana an opportunity to reduce input cost pressures on farmers, particularly if the reductions in international prices are reflected in domestic import and retail prices.

For the government, the outlook also highlights the importance of planning agricultural input procurement and distribution around changing global market conditions to improve affordability and support farmers.

However, the World Bank cautions that risks to the fertilizer price outlook remain tilted to the upside.

It warns that an escalation of conflict in the Middle East could worsen shipping disruptions and push up natural gas and other input costs, potentially triggering renewed increases in fertilizer prices.

The report also identifies export restrictions by major producers as another potential source of price volatility.

For Ghana, this means the anticipated decline in fertilizer prices in 2027 is not guaranteed, with developments in global energy markets, shipping routes and fertilizer supply likely to remain important determinants of input costs.

The World Bank's projections therefore point to a potentially more favourable global fertilizer market in 2027, but the extent to which Ghanaian farmers benefit will depend on how international price movements translate into local market prices and access to agricultural inputs.