Sifuna leads Ruto in Western, Nairobi and Coast as regional voting preferences emerge – TIFA

NAIROBI, Kenya Nov 11 – Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has overtaken President William Ruto in several regions in the race for preferred winner of the 2027 presidential election, according to a new TIFA Research opinion poll. Under Article 138(4) of the Constitution of Kenya, 2010, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) can declare a presidential candidate President-elect only if the candidate meets two constitutional requirements simultaneously: More than 50 per cent plus one of all votes cast in the presidential election.

At least 25 per cent of the votes cast in more than half of Kenya’s 47 counties. The November 2026 survey shows Sifuna enjoying his strongest support in Western Kenya, where he commands 55 per cent, compared with Ruto’s 25 per cent. In Nairobi, Sifuna leads with 39 per cent against Ruto’s 13 per cent, while in Coast he attracts 36 per cent compared with the President’s 40 per cent.

Sifuna also leads in South Rift with 33 per cent against Ruto’s 29 per cent, while the two are closely matched in Mt Kenya, where the senator has 32 per cent against Ruto’s 11 per cent. In Nyanza, Sifuna commands 31 per cent against Ruto’s 35 per cent, while in the Central Rift, the President leads with 59 per cent against the senator’s 16 per cent.

Ruto also maintains a strong lead in Northern Kenya, where he commands 62 per cent against Sifuna’s 20 per cent. Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka dominates Lower Eastern, attracting 55 per cent support, compared with Ruto’s 20 per cent and Sifuna’s 8 per cent. The regional findings highlight the geographical differences in support for the leading presidential hopefuls, with Ruto retaining strong backing in several regions while Sifuna enjoys significant support in Nairobi and Western Kenya.

The poll also places Kalonzo as the dominant presidential preference in his Lower Eastern stronghold.