World is now in ‘age of electricity’, energy agency chief says at Cop31

Exclusive: Fossil fuels no longer dominant energy source, IEA leader says, as summit considers electrification pledge

The world has left behind the age of coal, oil and gas and is now firmly in “the age of electricity”, the world’s leading energy economist has said.

Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said more than twice as much electricity generation would be added to the global economy in the next decade than in the last, as countries scramble to secure their energy supplies against fossil fuel price volatility and supply shocks, such as the Iran war.

Transport is being electrified at an unprecedented rate: outside China, sales of electric cars have risen by 60% in the last nine months, the IEA has found. The growth of AI datacentres is also spurring electricity generation, as is the rapid growth in air conditioning, according to Birol, as heatwaves grow more intense and more frequent under rising global temperatures.

“We will still use oil and gas, but the dominant source of energy is becoming electricity,” Birol told the Guardian in an interview at the Cop31 UN climate summit in Turkey. “One staggering number [is that] in the last 10 years, the world has added about 5,000 gigawatts of electricity. And we expect, in a very conservative way, in the next 10 years, about 12,000 gigawatts, more than two times more than what we had in the last 10 years.”

Governments from 185 countries are meeting this week and next in Antalya for the annual talks, where the turn to electrification in place of fossil fuels is one of the key topics. A resolution to derive 35% of final energy worldwide from electricity by 2035 is on the table, which if it succeeds, could be one of the most important ways of achieving the needed decarbonisation of economies by mid-century.

Electricity now fulfils about a quarter of most energy needs while three-quarters of final energy worldwide is supplied by fossil fuels, mostly for transport, heating and industrial uses. Global electricity was increasingly generated by renewable sources and that process would speed up even faster over the next decades, Birol said.

The more our lives can be powered by clean energy the better, say experts, not least because, as a result of the inefficiency of fossil fuels, most of the rest of our energy is wasted as heat, so when these activities are electrified, only about half of the energy needs to be replaced.

Most countries back the electrification goal, according to Birol. He has worked closely with the Turkish and Australian governments, which are jointly presiding over this year’s summit. “It will be an unmistakable signal to the markets and investors that governments see that the future of energy is in electricity,” he said. “This will make the age of electricity even earlier and cheaper. It might be one of the most consequential decisions coming from Cops in the last several years.”

But even if the resolution was not adopted – some governments, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, are said to be opposed, and owing to the convention by which consensus is needed to pass decisions, a small number of countries can hold the rest to ransom – the “staggering” progress would continue, Birol said.

“The reason is there are three major drivers for electrification: one is AI and datacentres; second is the electrification transportation sector; and third, the most important one in terms of volume, is air conditioning. Air conditioners are growing explosively,” he said.

In the US, about 90% of households have access to air conditioning, but in India it is fewer than 20%, and in Nigeria about 5%. “With the increasing effects of climate change, and if they have more money, [people] buy air conditioners,” said Birol. “These things are happening, and electrification is not bad. It is good for energy security, because it is your own electricity [generated within a country rather than imported, as fossil fuels often are], good for the competitiveness of countries, and good for climate change.”

He added: “Global energy demand is growing strongly, but global electricity demand is growing three times faster than total energy demand. And it is impossible to stop it. The one and only issue is making electricity affordable for people.”

Birol placed the blame for the UK’s high electricity prices firmly on gas. “There is always a debate about this in the UK, but in fact the single most important reason why UK electricity prices may be on the high side is reliance on imported gas. Gas prices went up, so did the electricity prices, full stop. And the solution is not importing more gas, but building more [renewable] electricity at home,” he said.

The transformation is happening fast. “Five years ago, only 5% of all the cars sold was electric. And this year, we expect it is about one-third of all the cars sold is electric, and electric trucks are coming. This is going to displace a significant amount of oil,” he said.

“If the electrification pledge comes out [of Cop31] and the countries decide that the world’s energy future is electric, then it will definitely lead to a secure, more affordable and more livable planet.”