Albanese is caught between climate ambition and political reality at COP31

Australia has come to COP31 seeking to establish itself as a serious global climate player, with the Pacific at the centre of its diplomatic ambitions.

But its efforts at this week's UN climate change conference here in Türkiye are exposing the contradictions in current climate politics, both internationally and at home.

The Albanese government is trying to demonstrate leadership without making promises it cannot deliver, particularly on fossil fuels.

That pragmatism has defenders, but it also leaves Australia vulnerable to accusations that it is avoiding the most difficult questions.

Meanwhile, the Coalition's attacks on the cost of the summit illustrate how far removed the domestic political debate can be from the geopolitical stakes.

In his opening address at the leaders' summit in the Turkish city of Antalya, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese delivered what he intended as a rallying call to assist the likes of Tuvalu and other Pacific nations, for whom climate change is an acute, existential threat.

The reception from the country officials in the plenary session was polite, if not a little indifferent, from those sitting toward the back of the room in view of the media.

That's not to say Australia isn't achieving its core aim of raising up Pacific voices to a level not previously experienced at this summit, but with more time spent on spruiking home batteries than the perils of coal and gas, it felt a little flat.

It didn't help that Albanese spoke after António Guterres, who used his final COP speech as United Nations secretary-general to deliver a blistering rebuke of those who continue to develop, and fail to adequately tax, fossil fuel projects.

Guterres did not explicitly name Australia, or COP31 host Türkiye, but both have come under scrutiny from climate activists for their continued roles in the energy resources industry.

Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, who is steering this year's talks as president of negotiations, told this column the comments by Guterres reflected a long-held view, and he did not believe they were aimed at any one country.

Bowen and Albanese have repeatedly defended the government's climate stance in the face of accusations of hypocrisy, arguing Australia is doing its part with an emphasis on not just sustainable, but reliable and affordable energy.

Even if that approach doesn't satisfy those pushing for greater climate ambition, it's clear Labor is having success on another international front.

By seeking to put the Pacific at the heart of the negotiations, Australia hopes to strengthen its standing in a strategically important region.

Climate diplomacy is no longer just environmental policy. It's foreign policy, regional influence and strategic competition.

Albanese continually shared the stage with his Pacific counterparts and was rewarded when they defended Australia's role at the summit.

"By ourselves, the small islands sometimes are not heard," Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr said.

At a fireside chat on the sidelines of COP, former California governor Gavin Newsom said it was now a "strategic imperative" that countries "change the way we produce and consume energy".

He said China, despite remaining a major emitter, was well ahead of the US in this regard.

Newsom was particularly talking about how exposed most economies are to shocks in the fossil fuel supply chain.

Speaking from his office ensconced in the depths of a winding maze of temporary walls fitting out the cavernous buildings housing COP31, Bowen agreed.

He said the Middle East war and subsequent oil crisis has sharpened the case for electrification and renewables, even among countries where tackling climate is not specifically a high priority.

Yet, Bowen has been pragmatic about the chances of a late push at the summit to put a global road map for transitioning away from fossil fuels on the agenda.

Brazil failed to secure consensus on the issue at last year's COP and has now vowed to go it alone, joining more than a dozen countries who have unveiled their own voluntary plans.

Bowen was careful not to pre-empt next week's negotiations, but he has focused on defending a staged transition.

He's argued that even electrification not entirely powered by renewables can represent progress.

The anger among advocates is understandable, particularly given the gap between current trajectories and climate targets.

But there's a paradox in criticising a summit for focusing on implementation, when countries are already struggling to meet their existing commitments.

There is little point in continually raising ambitions without creating a credible pathway to achieve them.

At the same time, implementation is not itself an excuse to abandon stronger commitments.

Against this international backdrop, the Coalition is attacking a $32,000 coffee cart at Australia's pavilion.

It is a revealing example of how the political argument about climate change shifts once it returns home, where cost-of-living pressure gives attacks on government spending greater potency.

Yes, as Bowen has sharply argued, there is hypocrisy in Opposition leader Angus Taylor criticising the free flat whites, given the scheme was introduced when he was energy minister.

But Taylor has said the current economic circumstances mean what was OK before, including a prime minister simply travelling to COP, is not acceptable now.

It's pure politics, of course — the money spent on Australia's attendance at the summit is negligible in the broader context of the country's diplomatic efforts — but it has gained traction with disaffected voters.

A near-constant refrain among Australians currently in Antalya is how grateful most Labor MPs must be that the government lost its bid to host COP31 in Adelaide.

The coffee cart bill would pale in comparison to the cost of the police and officials, the nightmare traffic and all the other minor inconveniences that come with inviting world leaders to your doorstep.

And if Türkiye hadn't won, the world would never know of the certified banger theme tune "Let's COP" (short for 'let's change our planet') — so perhaps all is as it was meant to be.

Labor has tried to occupy a middle ground between the demands of climate advocates and the opposition's domestic political attacks.

There is no hope of the government pleasing both sides, which means the test is whether its pragmatic approach can deliver enough tangible progress to justify the leadership role it is claiming.