2027 Politics Watch: Tinubu’s Plateau pledges, Atiku’s subsidy bets and ADC’s deepening crisis

President Bola Tinubu and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar

President Bola Tinubu promised on Saturday to rebuild communities devastated by violence in Plateau State, as Atiku Abubakar renewed his pledge to subsidise petrol and electricity at a campaign rally in Bauchi.

For Tinubu, the immediate test is delivering security equipment, deploying forest guards, and rebuilding attacked settlements. Atiku faces a different challenge: explaining how his proposed energy subsidies would be funded and how they would differ from existing government support.

Atiku also faced renewed challenges to his nomination from rival ADC officials, who cited a Federal High Court judgement invalidating decisions of the party’s David Mark-led leadership. The ruling is under appeal.

At the All Progressives Congress (APC) North-Central presidential campaign rally at Zaria Road Stadium in Jos, Tinubu pledged federal support to rebuild communities attacked by armed groups and enable displaced residents to return home. He also asked Plateau residents to forgive him for limiting an earlier condolence visit to the airport following the March attack on Angwan Rukuba in Jos North.

According to the Presidency’s account of Saturday’s rally, surveillance cameras promised for Plateau had arrived in Nigeria and would be installed. The president said 1,000 forest guards were undergoing training ahead of deployment.

Governor Caleb Mutfwang thanked him for federal assistance but acknowledged that security challenges persisted.

The government has not disclosed which settlements will receive reconstruction assistance first, the programme’s budget, when the cameras and guards will be deployed or when displaced families can expect to return safely.

The rally also highlighted the APC’s expanded presence in Plateau following Mr Mutfwang’s move to the ruling party.

In Osogbo, APC leaders held a mobilisation walk and announced a target of two million votes for Tinubu. Bola Oyebamiji and Senator Francis Fadahunsi were among the participants. Mr Oyebamiji expressed willingness to cooperate with the state’s ruling party, Accord, although no formal agreement was announced.

A separate PREMIUM TIMES report examined the failure to present party flags to legislative candidates at Wednesday’s APC rally in Akure. State spokesperson Steve Otaloro attributed the omission to scheduling constraints and promised another occasion for the presentation.

While the APC sought support through reconstruction commitments and campaign mobilisation, the ADC’s Bauchi rally brought energy subsidies back into the presidential contest.

At the Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa Stadium in Bauchi, Atiku promised to restore petroleum and electricity subsidies if elected president. He also pledged to tackle insecurity and continue exploration at the Kolmani oil field, while urging supporters to monitor vote counting and result transmission at their polling units.

His petroleum proposal predates Saturday’s rally. At the ADC campaign launch in Sokoto on 4 November, his campaign outlined targeted support for locally refined petroleum products, including the possibility of supplying domestic refineries with crude oil at discounted prices.

Saturday’s remarks did not specify the proposed discount, eligibility conditions or annual financing requirements.

The electricity pledge requires a different examination because federal support already exists.

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission’s second-quarter 2026 report recorded a federal subsidy obligation of ₦321.26 billion between April and June, representing 49.60 per cent of electricity generation invoices. The figure represents an obligation incurred during the quarter, not confirmation that the full amount was paid.

Atiku had also proposed replacing the electricity tariff-band system with pricing more closely linked to the power consumers receive, as PREMIUM TIMES previously reported.

His latest pledge leaves unclear whether he intends to subsidise the proposed new tariffs, expand support for existing customers or pursue both measures. The campaign has yet to explain who would benefit and how the government would meet the additional cost.

Another spending commitment emerged in Katsina, where Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship candidate Yakubu Lado Danmarke promised medical treatment without out-of-pocket payments while inaugurating a 2,000-member campaign council. The published account did not specify which services and facilities would be covered or how the programme would be funded.

Atiku’s running mate, former Rivers Governor Rotimi Amaechi, predicted that the ADC would defeat Tinubu in all 13 North-east and North-west states, with additional victories in Niger, Kogi and Nasarawa. He presented no state-by-state polling evidence to support the forecast.

His remarks came as rival ADC officials questioned the authority of the leadership behind Atiku’s nomination.

Officials aligned with Nafiu Bala Gombe demanded on Saturday that Atiku stop presenting himself as the ADC’s presidential candidate.

The group, claiming to represent the party’s six geopolitical zonal leaderships, cited the Federal High Court judgement delivered by Justice Peter Lifu on 5 November. In a communiqué reported by The Guardian, spokesperson Christopher Okechukwu threatened further legal action if Atiku continued campaigning.

The group’s claimed mandate has not been independently verified. A rival ADC faction made the demand, not a fresh court order.

The judgement invalidated arrangements producing the David Mark-led national leadership and decisions arising from them, including the disputed presidential nomination. The Mark-led ADC has appealed and sought a stay of execution; neither step automatically suspends the judgment.

The dispute has practical implications for the party’s dealings with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), including electoral documentation and polling-agent arrangements. No verified evidence shows that the latest factional demand has led INEC to deny the party access to those processes.

The ADC’s legal difficulties also sparked a confrontation with the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA).

In a statement signed by National Publicity Secretary Bolaji Abdullahi, the party accused the association of selective treatment after it referred lawyer and politician Kalu Kalu to a disciplinary committee over his remarks about Justice Lifu during the 11 November edition of Channels Television’s Politics Today.

In a statement dated 13 November, NBA President Oyinkansola Badejo-Okusanya said lawyers were entitled to scrutinise judgments and challenge judicial reasoning but remained bound by professional standards when speaking publicly.

Citing the Rules of Professional Conduct for Legal Practitioners, 2023, she confirmed that she had forwarded a petition and broadcast material to the Legal Practitioners Disciplinary Committee.

Mr Kalu would have an opportunity to respond, while the committee would determine whether professional misconduct occurred and whether any sanction was appropriate. The referral itself did not constitute a disciplinary finding.

The ADC rejected the NBA’s intervention, accusing the association of applying inconsistent standards.

The party cited what it described as earlier Court of Appeal criticism of Justice Lifu and suggested that the NBA risked appearing politically aligned with the ruling APC.

The allegation of political alignment remains unsubstantiated, while the ADC’s account of the appellate ruling has not been independently verified.

The complaint against Mr Kalu concerns professional conduct, while the courts must resolve the separate dispute over the ADC’s leadership and nominations.

Opposition parties renewed demands for protection following reported attacks and intimidation at political gatherings.

Lagos ADC Chairman George Ashiru urged Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu to condemn political violence and guarantee the safety of opposition supporters, referring to Thursday’s reported attack on a Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) town hall meeting in Oregun.

He alleged that ADC supporters had also experienced intimidation despite complaints to security agencies.

The ADC Presidential Campaign Council separately accused the Presidency of responding inconsistently to attacks on opposition gatherings.

Tinubu had condemned political violence on Friday, directing security agencies to act against thuggery and saying candidates should be able to campaign without fear.

How security agencies handle reported attacks on different parties will test whether they apply that directive consistently.

In Ekiti, a Saturday report by The Guardian examined the investigation into the 30 October incident involving African Action Congress presidential candidate Omoyele Sowore.

Police had announced 11 arrests and arraignments, but Mr Sowore maintained that the principal attackers he identified were not among those arrested. The Ekiti State Government denied involvement.

The reported attack on the NDC’s Lagos gathering also drew attention to the singing of Nigeria’s former national anthem.

Aviation Minister Festus Keyamo gave party leader Seriake Dickson 48 hours to clarify the party’s position after participants sang Arise, O Compatriots. He suggested that rejecting the current anthem could indicate separatist intentions.

The NDC responded on Saturday, with spokesperson Chiogo Ikokwu saying the rendition was spontaneous and that participants subsequently sang the current anthem, Nigeria, We Hail Thee.

Lagos governorship candidate Funso Doherty offered a similar explanation.

The current anthem was restored in May 2024. Keyamo’s interpretation remained a political allegation, not evidence that the NDC had adopted a separatist programme.

The NDC also addressed the departure of prominent campaign officials.

In an interview published on Saturday, spokesperson Chiogo Ikokwu thanked Yunusa Tanko and Abdulmumin Abdulsalam for their contributions.

Mr Tanko had been unveiled on Wednesday as an official of the Social Democratic Party’s presidential campaign. His departure did not establish that the wider Obidient Movement had transferred its support to the SDP.

Opposition cooperation remained under discussion.

Oyo State Governor and Allied Peoples Movement presidential candidate Seyi Makinde said in a Friday interview reported on Saturday that he was discussing possible cooperation with politicians including Atiku and Peter Obi.

He said he would consider manifestos, past performance, and public sentiment before settling on a common candidate.

Former Jigawa Governor Sule Lamido, in another Friday interview, rejected the coalition associated with Federal Capital Territory Minister Nyesom Wike and said he supported PDP candidates.

Neither intervention produced a confirmed joint candidate or agreed selection process.

INEC dismissed a social media report on Saturday claiming that its chairman, Joash Amupitan, was preparing to resign.

The commission described the report as fabricated. A protest outside Chatham House in London on Thursday, where demonstrators demanded his resignation, did not establish that he intended to leave office.

House Committee on Electoral Matters Chairman Bayo Balogun said in a Friday interview published on Saturday that the INEC chairman was expected to brief lawmakers on election preparations.

The proposed briefing would cover voter registration, Permanent Voter Cards, logistics, the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and the INEC Result Viewing Portal. No confirmed date was supplied.

INEC has scheduled a nationwide mock accreditation and voting exercise for 28 November, ahead of the presidential election on 16 January 2027.

The exercise will test preparations for voter accreditation and other election-day procedures. Afterwards, the commission will need to disclose where the tests took place, any problems encountered and the corrective measures planned before polling day.