IC Insights expects more market-determined forex market; predicts GH¢11.6 –11.8 to one dollar in interbank market by December 31

IC Insights expects a more market-determined forex market with periodic adjustments rather than defended levels.

It is therefore maintaining its expectation of GH¢11.6 –11.8 per US dollar in the interbank market by the end of the year. Presently, the cedi is going for GH¢11.69 to one American greenback in the interbank market.

In the retail market, the local currency will trade higher than in the interbank market.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its first review of Ghana’s Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), emphasised that vulnerabilities persist in the foreign exchange market, particularly from the external sector, citing reserve declines that required corrective actions, which include the already transferred forex intermediation from the Bank of Ghana to the GoldBod and raising gold sale requirements for large-scale miners.

IC Insights said, “We interpret raising gold sale requirements for large-scale miners as a reference to the newly established Ghana Accelerated National Reserves Accumulation Policy (GANRAP) 2026 – 2028. In August 2026, the Ghanaian authorities and large-scale miners signed a memorandum of understanding under the GANRAP, which requires large-scale miners to sell 30.0% of their gold output to the Bank of Ghana and the GoldBod. In our view, this raises the threshold from the previous requirement of 20.0% and supports reserve accumulation plans”.

“We also view the IMF’s call for greater exchange rate flexibility as a signal of discomfort with reserve-draining interventions to smooth short-term forex volatility, as was observed in June 2026. Gross reserves fell from a record US$14.5 billion (5.7 months of import cover) in February 2026 to US$11.1 billion (4.2 months) by the end of August, before recovering to US$12.0 billion in late September. Unsurprisingly, the September 2026 MPC meeting also stressed the reserve drawdown and highlighted reserve rebuild as the priority for the months ahead. Against this backdrop, we expect a more market-determined Cedi (especially the USDGHS), with periodic adjustments rather than defended levels. That said, we maintain our expectation for the USD/GHS to close 2026 between 11.6 – 11.8/USD”, it added.

In November 2026, the government and IMF reached a staff-level agreement (SLA) on the first review of the 36-month Policy Coordination Instrument after a two-week mission review which concluded on 05 November 2026.

The SLA is subject to approval by the IMF Management and the Executive Board, albeit without any fund disbursement post-approval, as the PCI is a non-funded technical support.

Nevertheless, IC Insights views its value in the policy anchor it provides and the signal to investors, rating agencies and creditors.

The Fund rated Ghana’s performance under the PCI as "broadly satisfactory", with "most" quantitative targets met. “We believe the unmet target relates to external buffers, favourable deviation of inflation from target, and a mild shortfall on non-oil revenue despite Staff recognition of a strong collection in 2026.”