Trade Pathways launches Nigeria coverage as US tariffs weigh on small business exporters

New US import tax falls hardest on processed goods, the core of Nigeria’s small-business export economy. For Nigeria’s small businesses, selling to the United States has become a moving target. Tariff costs for buyers have changed four times in the last 18 months, and the latest change brings new challenges for entrepreneurs and business owners. The recent volatility began in April 2025, when the US placed a 14 per cent tax on most Nigerian goods.

Four months later, the tariff rate rose to 15 per cent. Then, in February 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled these taxes unlawful, and a temporary 10 per cent tax was put in their place. For many exporters, it became difficult to know which rate applied, or for how long. That temporary tax expired in July 2026 and was replaced by the one in place today: a 12.5 per cent tax on goods from countries that, according to the US government, have not banned imports made with forced labour.

Nigeria is one of the few African countries on that list. A key concern with the latest tariff is that it falls hardest on small businesses. Nigeria’s largest exports to the US, such as crude oil, gas and fertiliser, are exempt, and those are mostly handled by large enterprises. Beyond these exports, the dividing line tends to fall between raw and finished goods.

Most raw commodities, like cocoa beans and raw cashews, are exempt, while finished goods such as roasted cashews, chocolate, shea butter, leather goods, cosmetics, packaged foods and crafts are taxed. These finished goods tend to be items that Nigeria’s small and medium-sized businesses most commonly export. “The greater challenge lies not in the immediate loss of export opportunities, but in navigating an increasingly fragmented and protectionist global trading environment,” Dr Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said in a policy brief issued after the tax was announced.

This growing challenge for small and medium-sized businesses is why Trade Pathways, a US-based, student-run organisation, was founded. Its goal is to create opportunities for small businesses in Africa by giving them free access to the same clear, up-to-date picture of US trade policy that multinationals and large enterprises get from legal teams and policy experts.

The platform tracks every US trade policy change and explains the structure in simple terms, so business owners can keep up with the constant shifts and understand buyer behaviour. Having initially served businesses in Kenya and Ghana, Trade Pathways is now launching full coverage for Nigeria, driven by recent trade policy changes and the potential adverse impacts on Nigerian business owners.

“Small business owners should be spending their time making and selling great products, not on interpreting US government trade notices,” noted Keshav Suman, the platform’s founder. “The information is public, but it changes constantly and is written for lawyers and policy experts, not for the business owners it affects most.” The timing reflects growing activity among smaller Nigerian exporters.

Non-oil exports reached a record $6.1 billion in 2025, and the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) registered 1,129 new exporters during the year. NEPC’s Executive Director, Nonye Ayeni, has said the council is focused on “reducing dependence on large exporters by supporting small and medium-scale enterprises.” What Nigerian exporting businesses should know now Which party pays the tariff.

The US import tax is paid by the American buyer when the goods arrive, not by the Nigerian supplier. Suppliers are still impacted indirectly, however, as buyers ask for lower prices, order smaller quantities, or move part of their orders to suppliers in countries that pay less. The exception is when a seller agrees to deliver goods with all import duties already paid, an arrangement that is common when shipping parcels directly to US customers.

In that case, the seller would be responsible for the tax. Product classification. Exemptions from the new tax are set based on product and further classified by process, so two closely related goods can be treated very differently. Raw cashews, for example, are exempt, while roasted cashews are not. Before agreeing on a price, exporters should confirm exactly how their product is classified, so a buyer is not surprised by a higher cost after the order is placed.

Refunds of the 2025 tariffs. The emergency tariffs the US charged on imports from around the world in 2025, including the 14 and 15 per cent rates on Nigerian goods, were ruled unlawful by the US Supreme Court in February 2026. US Customs has been refunding importers since April 2026, and on October 8, a US court ruled that importers who have not filed their own lawsuits are covered under a single group claim.

Although refunds benefit US buyers, Nigerian export businesses that lowered prices to help buyers absorb the tariff can reasonably negotiate in future pricing dis