October rainfall records under threat across south-east Queensland

Brisbane, the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast have seen much heavier October rainfall than normal, with more than twice the average falling in some parts.

Most of the falls have been recorded in the past week, with Springbrook, in the Gold Coast Hinterland, registering 387mm since October 19.

Brisbane can expect a shower or two on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a top temperature of 29 degrees Celsius.

Brisbane and the Gold Coast are on track for their wettest October in six years as the Bureau of Meteorology predicts more showers and thunderstorms across south-east Queensland.

Brisbane's October average is 87 millimetres, but by 6pm on Monday about 170mm had fallen for the month, including a 15-minute downpour that dumped 11mm on the CBD before 3pm.

Parts of the Gold Coast with a similar October average to Brisbane have seen even higher totals, the majority of which came in the last seven days.

Burleigh Waters has recorded 227mm over the past week and Mudgeeraba Creek had 183mm in the gauge during the same period. Springbrook, in the Gold Coast Hinterland, has received 387mm since October 19.

But those weekly numbers were overshadowed at Caboolture (400mm) and Morayfield (404mm), both of which were hit by flash floods.

Meteorologist Harry Clark said the October falls were "quite exceptional".

"October is part of a transitional season for south-east Queensland after the drier months from July, August and September," he said.

Brisbane's wettest October in recent memory came in 2020, when 183mm fell. The following year 159mm was recorded.

So the 10th month in 2026 will sit alongside them as unusually sodden, but it has a long way to go to rival the torrential rain of October 2010, when more than 300mm fell in Brisbane.

The Gold Coast is on track for its wettest October since 2021 and the Sunshine Coast is likely to break new records.

Based on the 369mm that has fallen at Sunshine Coast Airport this month, the region will beat the record set in October 2017 for the highest amount since its month-to-month precipitation data was first compiled 32 years ago.

Even so, 2026 has been a drier-than-average year for much of the south-east, including Brisbane, with only 88 per cent of its average rainfall reported at this point.

"We're still running a little under, but certainly we've almost caught up with all that recent rainfall across the south-east," BOM senior meteorologist Felim Hanniffy said.

"At this stage we're not expecting any heavy falls for Brisbane, apart from possible shower activity from today and Wednesday."

Communities across the Lockyer Valley breathed a sigh of relief as the flood risk eased near Laidley Creek.

A Watch and Act warning was issued on Sunday for Laidley and Glenore Grove, with flash flooding in Laidley Creek forcing several road closures.

Laidley Creek broke its banks at Thornton and Mulgowie after "a significant flow of water".

But a Lockyer Valley Regional Council spokesperson said the threat seemed to have passed for now.

"We had significant rain on Sunday night and early on Monday, at the head of the creek in the Mt Castle area, with around 400mm falling over the past week, which is last similar to 2013 flood event," they said.

"But if we don't get any more storms that feed that catchment, conditions will continue to ease."

Mr Hanniffy said the heavier falls this week were likely to come north of the Laidley area.

"The severe storm focus is expected to be a little north of the area today and on Wednesday, with chance of storms, well away from the area, and north of Esk," he said.

Brisbane's forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday is for showers and a top temperature of 29 degrees Celsius, with conditions expected to cool down by the weekend.