European Rugby – Monday Handicap Moves
Castres versus Bain
Castres +6 → +8
It worked Bath’s way. The market is clearly happier backing Bath by more than one score. Castres at home hasn’t scared anyone yet.
Edinburgh v Gloucester
Edinburgh -8 → -13
Big move early. Edinburgh are expected to be strong, but Gloucester are unlikely to be. As simple as that.
Bristol Bulls vs Bears
Taurus -11 → -17
I still don’t understand this one. It’s like people are betting on altitude instead of teams. Bristol looks set to travel properly, the Bulls have bigger priorities. A strange gesture.
Clermont vs Glasgow Warriors
Clermont +8 → +8
Nothing is happening here. Neither side is crying out for urgency, the market is happy to sit on that.
Leinster vs La Rochelle
Leicester -23 → -18
Open huge, maybe a little too big. Leinster still expected a good win, but the market didn’t want to keep putting it off.
Sharks vs. Sharks Sale
Sale -14 → -17 → -16
Early selling money, then a bit of a pullback once it stretches out. It looks like right now.
Scarlets vs Pau
Scarlets -7 → -8
A little help from home. Nothing dramatic, a low stakes game.
Leicester Tigers v Bayonne
Leicester -26 → -29
One-way traffic. Bayonne traveling in Europe with championship concerns, Leicester is not laughing.
Harlequins v Stormers
Harlequins +4 → +1
The market cooled off pretty quickly on the Stormers. Quins expected to be much closer than initially thought.
Toulon vs. Munster
Toulon -8 → -11
Drift on the way to Toulon all day. With the home power play respected, Munster remains competitive but it’s a difficult question.
Bordeaux v Northampton Saints
Bordeaux -16 → -14
The opener looked big. The Saints money came in, probably expecting both sides to be strong.
Saracens vs Toulouse
Saracens +6 → +10
It’s all about selection. Toulouse’s depth is trustworthy, Saracens’ rotation risks being taken into account.
Ulster and Connacht
There will be no betting on Ulster or Connacht until Friday.
Expect the Ulster Handicap to open up -21and they could easily gain in 30 points. They’ll be targeting this game hard, with one eye on whether the matchup against Stade Français will ultimately determine whether they hit a home run all the way to the final.
Connacht, for its part, is reduced to nothing. In reality, the priority is to beat Montauban the following week to try to secure a place at home in the round of 16 and recover bodies before facing Leinster (probably Leinster C) for the opening of the Clan Stand.
This weekend, Montpellier will aim to finish at the top of the general classification of the Challenge Cup. Expect some turnover, but a strong team knowing the points difference could matter. The handicap should land around -25and the final margin could be similar or even push towards 40.
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