Published January 13, 2026, 11:13 a.m. EST
Kalshi and Polymarket’s chances have plummeted since November oral arguments Traders at prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are betting that the country’s highest court is unlikely to rule in favor of the president Donald Trumpthe prices.
Traders on Kalshi now give almost a 32% chance that the Supreme Court will side with Trump’s tariff plan, down 14 points after oral arguments in November signaled potential skepticism from the justices.
The trading volume, or the total amount wagered on this market, is just over $3 million.
TRUMP DEFENDS TARIFFS, SAYS WE HAVE BEEN “THE KING OF VISITS” BY TRADE IMBALANCE
Online prediction market Kalshi is checking whether the Supreme Court will side with President Donald Trump on tariffs. (Kalshi)
Polymarket reflects this sentiment, with a rating also of 28%, down 9 points over the same period. Trading volume on Polymarket sits slightly north of $2.4 million.
Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to bet real money on everything from politics and economic policy to sports and pop culture, turning public opinion into tradable market odds.
TRUMP SAYS TARIFF REVENUE TO FUND $2,000 CHECKS FOR AMERICANS AND LOWER NATION’S $38 TRILLION DEBT
Online prediction market Polymarket is checking whether the Supreme Court will side with President Donald Trump on tariffs. (Polymarket)
The Supreme Court’s decision, expected this week, comes as customs revenues – and the economic issues linked to them – have declined. reached record levels.
Since Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs in April, monthly revenues have increased from $23.9 billion in May to $31.6 billion in September. Total revenue from customs duties reached $215.2 billion in fiscal year 2025, which ended Sept. 30, according to the Treasury Department’s report on customs and certain excise taxes.
GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE
President Donald Trump has made tariff revenue a key part of his economic agenda. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
This momentum has continued into the new fiscal year, with $99.5 billion raised since October 1. Treasury data shows.
On Monday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that if the nation’s highest court did not side with his administration, the United States would be “screwed.”
