U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters while in flight aboard Air Force One, departing from Shannon, Ireland, en route to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, January 22, 2026.
Mandel and | Afp | Getty Images
American President Donald TrumpWashington’s warning that a US “armada” is heading towards Iran has increased concerns about possible military action in the Middle East, pushing oil prices higher amid fears of supply disruptions.
“We are watching Iran,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One Thursday. “You know, we have a lot of ships going in that direction, just in case. We have a big flotilla going in that direction and we’ll see what happens.”
The American president also reiterated his pressure so that Tehran does not restart its nuclear program, echoing comments made to CNBC at the World Economic Forum earlier this week.
Oil prices, which had fallen about 2% in the previous session, were up Friday morning.
International reference Brent Crude futures with March delivery rose 1.8% to $65.20 a barrel around 1:04 p.m. London time (8:04 a.m. ET). WE West Texas Intermediate Meanwhile, futures with March delivery were last up 1.8% at $60.44.
Trump’s comments take stock of Iranian crackdown on nationwide protests reached at least 5,002, according to Human Rights Activists News Agencywith nearly 27,000 people arrested. HRANA, a U.S.-registered nonprofit, relies on a network of activists in Iran for its reporting.
The protests, which began at Tehran’s bazaar on December 28, have been fueled by growing frustrations over a long-running economic crisis, particularly the government’s handling of a sharp fall in the national currency and soaring prices.
A woman with her face painted in the colors of the Iranian flag during a demonstration in front of the Spanish Parliament.
Marcos Del Mazo | Light flare | Getty Images
Asset seemed to shrink from threats of military action against Iran last week, telling reporters that he had been informed by “very important sources” in Tehran that “the killings had stopped.”
However, the US president’s latest warning to Iran, alongside the strengthening of the US fleet in the Gulf region, has energy market players on edge. OPEC member Iran is a major player in the global oil market, producing more than 3 million barrels of oil per day.
Iran’s ‘only redeeming factor’Aditya Saraswat, MENA research director at Rystad Energy, said in a research note that there are three likely scenarios for Iranian oil flows: maintaining the status quo, making progress in negotiations with the Trump administration, or preparing for regime change triggered by U.S. intervention.
“Iran’s familiar tactics, such as closing the Strait of Hormuzbanking on its trade with China and threatening nuclear escalation, are still on the table, but must be weighed by their own potential to backfire on the regime,” Saraswat said Monday.
The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, is recognized as one of the most important oil bottlenecks in the world.
Iranian navy soldiers board an armed speedboat in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz, about 1,320 km south of Tehran, April 30, 2019.
Morteza Nikoubazl | Nuphoto | Getty Images
Blocking the waterway, even temporarily, can drive up global energy prices, increase transportation costs and cause significant supply delays.
For Iran, Saraswat said, the “only redeeming factor” is China’s role as a key driver of export revenues.
“Currently, China accounts for 90% of Iran’s oil exports, and even some of the cargoes reserved for ‘unknown’ destinations end up in China. Although the current export model seems feasible in the short term, its sustainability is becoming increasingly conditional,” he added.
A “well-stocked” marketEnergy analysts told CNBC Last week, market participants were bracing for further price swings amid heightened geopolitical tensions, saying a U.S. military strike was unlikely to materially affect Iranian oil production.
“Significant interruptions in Iranian oil production would increase prices, although the impact would still be limited given the oversupply in the global market,” say analysts at Fitch Ratings. said is January 16.
Speaking to CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Wednesday, Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi oil company Aramco, also said the energy sector has proven “very resilient in terms of managing any volatility that might arise.”
Nasser said the market was “well supplied” when asked about the risk of disruption to Iranian oil supplies.
“If you look at the last decade and how much disruption we’ve had, the market has continued to be well supplied because the sources are equally distributed,” he added.
