Sanae Takaichi, Japanese Prime Minister and chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), at the party headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, Sunday, February 8, 2026. Photographer: Toru Hanai/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party likely strengthened its majority in the country’s Lower House, with the LDP securing between 274 and 328 seats in the chamber’s 465 seats, according to an early projection by broadcaster NHK.
This was generally consistent with what the polls suggested, with Nikkei And Asahi Shimbun predicting that the LDP and its coalition partner, the Japanese Innovation Party, would achieve more than 300 seats in the Lower House.
NHK screened the coalition would win up to 366 seats.
People trudged through heavy snow in many parts of the country to vote.
Before the dissolution of Parliament, the LDP-JIP coalition held a total of 230 seats, and with three independents voting with the LDP, this effectively gave the ruling coalition a one-seat majority in the chamber.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s first female leader, dissolved the Lower House on January 23, a move that was seen as an attempt to quickly strengthen the ruling coalition’s position in the House by capitalizing on its strong public popularity.
“Takaichi now has the LDP and the technocrats exactly where she always wanted them,” said economist Jesper Koll. said in a Substack article.
“The PLD is now indebted to her; and the elite technocrats now know that she will be in power for at least two or three more years… so they have no choice but to invest their careers in her success,” Koll added.
OSAKA, JAPAN – FEBRUARY 8: Election workers count votes at a ballot counting center on February 8, 2026 in Osaka, Japan. Voters across the country went to the polls today in Japan’s Lower House elections. (Photo by Buddhika Weerasinghe/Getty Images)
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Polls compiled by Japanese media Nippon.com showed that Takaichi remained popular before the election, although her support has declined slightly in recent weeks.
The outlet reported that just one national poll in January showed support above 70 percent, up from three in December, while six polls showed support in the 60 percent range, up from four the month before.
Meanwhile, the Central Reform Alliance, made up of the former Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, the LDP’s former coalition partner, is expected to win between 37 and 91 seats.
The CDP was the largest opposition party before its merger with Komeito, holding 148 seats, while Komeito controlled 24 seats.
Economic and geopolitical challengesThe election comes amid heightened tensions between Japan and China, as well as lingering concerns over the weak yen and inflation in the country.
Japan has endured inflation above the Bank of Japan’s target for 45 consecutive months, falling real wages and persistent weakness in the yen.
The most recent inflation reading stood at 2.1%, while inflation for the whole year reached 3.2%. Real wages have fallen for 11 consecutive months over a year in 2025, and on an annual basis, real wages have fallen every year since 2022.
The yen weakened further in early 2026, briefly approaching the 160 level against the US dollar. While a weaker currency benefits exporters, it has also amplified imported inflation.
Takaichi previously presented a record $783 billion budget for the next fiscal year starting April 1, in addition to a recovery plan of 135 billion dollars introduced last year to help households facing the rising cost of living.
“Watch for more state-led initiatives to create “national champions,” leveraging the $550 [billion] The U.S.-Japan investment deal aims to create a sense of urgency among reluctant CEOs,” Koll said. “Japan’s mergers and acquisitions boom will accelerate to create greater economies of scale, and therefore more credible global competitiveness – all in the name of greater national economic security.”
–Azhar Sukri contributed to this story
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