Novo Nordisk was the first company to manufacture a GLP-1 drug for weight loss and became The most valuable company in Europe.
But its problems are piling up, and today the stock trades at barely a quarter of what it was at its peak less than two years ago.
Pricing pressure, fierce competition and pipeline setbacks have all hit the Danish drugmaker in recent months.
Despite being the first to launch a GLP-1 weight-loss drug, Novo’s market share has eroded and the company now captures only about 40% of the market, while rival Eli Lilly has 60%, by most estimates.
Novo is clear-eyed about the challenges it faces, particularly in terms of pricing. After the company released its 2026 forecast earlier this month and predicted a decline in sales, CEO Mike Doustdar told CNBC: “People should expect sales to go down before they go back up.” »
He repeatedly said new drugs, the Wegovy pill and increased volumes would drive long-term growth.
These charts show the scale of the challenges Novo faces.
Novo Nordisk is often considered a pure product of diabetes and obesity. Its portfolio included six branded drugs with annual sales of at least $1 billion in 2025, less than comparable current and future competitors.
Elie Lilly has eight so-called blockbuster drugs, and its portfolio also includes oncology and gene therapies.
Combined sales of Ozempic and Wegovy, Novo’s two biggest drugs, were about $32 billion, or about 67% of total sales, last year. Combined sales of Lilly’s two biggest drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, were about $37 billion, or about 56% of the company’s total sales over the same period.
Novo also sells insulin, including the blockbusters Tresiba and NovoRapid, as well as some drugs for rare diseases like hemophilia, but none come close to what its GLP-1 drugs do.
Among the large-cap pharmaceutical companies hoping to enter the weight-loss drug market in the coming years, such as AstraZeneca, Rock, AmgenAnd Pfizer, through the acquisition of Metserathe number of blockbuster drugs was significantly higher.
Novo Nordisk is also under pressure as prices of GLP-1 drugs fall in its most important market, the United States.
The United States has accounted for more than half of Novo’s total sales since 2023, and falling prices there are weighing on both the company’s revenue and profitability. Last year, Novo and Lilly reached a deal with the Trump administration to lower the prices of their GLP-1 drugs on Medicare and Medicaid and offer the treatments directly to consumers at a discount.
“In 2026, Novo Nordisk will face pricing headwinds in an increasingly competitive market,” said CEO Mike Doustdar, serving as the company’s chief executive officer. annual results report was released earlier this month.
Novo shares are down 75% since peaking at just over 1,000 Danish crowns per share in mid-2024.
The stock is up just over 10% over the past five years. This compares to Eli Lilly’s 400% rise and the blue-chip European index. Stoxx 600A gain of 55% over the same period.
Investors were last shaken on Monday when Novo announced disappointing results of a trial pitting its next-generation weight loss drug, CagriSema, against Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, also known as Zepbound, sending the stock down more than 16% on the day.
“Confidence in the stock is at an all-time low,” Henrik Hallengreen Laustsen, an analyst at Jyske Bank, said on Tuesday.
Earlier this month, Novo Nordisk said it expects sales and profits to fall between 5% and 13% in 2026. If this happens, it would be the first time annual sales have declined since 2017, in local currency terms.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect sales to be about 8% lower in 2026 than in 2025. That’s largely due to growing competition from Eli Lilly and compounding pharmacies that sell copied versions of Novo brand drugs at a lower price.
In the longer term, other large-cap pharmaceutical companies are considering entering the market and offering investors more differentiated weight loss drugs so they can secure market share for themselves.
Novo hopes that CagriSema can increase future sales, but after the latest trial results, analysts are increasingly doubting its commercial potential.
Novo expressed optimism about the drug and said further trials would evaluate its full weight-loss potential.
The Wegovy pill is another potential growth driver for Novo and has had a strong launch. However, it remains to be seen how it will fare if Lilly launches its rival pill, which is expected to hit the market in the second quarter, and what effects a price cut could have on volumes.
