Threat of new violence looms after Mexican cartels unleashed

Arriving in Guadalajara, a city in western Mexico, evidence of Sunday’s terrifying cartel rampage is still visible.

Charred debris from burned cars lies on the sides of the roads and there are patches of burned asphalt on the highways after the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) – one of the most powerful and feared cartels in the country – torched dozens of vehicles in response to the assassination of their boss, Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera.

This and the sight of convenience stores ransacked or burned projected exactly the message the CJNG wanted: that with or without their leader, they remain powerful, with the capacity to wreak havoc and mayhem on the streets – spreading fear and intimidation on a massive scale.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum tried to counter this speech. At her daily news conference on Monday, she spoke of the return of “peace and tranquility” to much of the country and praised the response of security forces.

Meanwhile, convoys of troops and police are circulating around Guadalajara. They are meant to reassure but, for many residents, they add to the feeling of unease.

Despite their presence, the streets are emptier than usual, a sign that people fear more violence, both in Guadalajara and the broader state of Jalisco. Most small businesses were closed and schools were closed, with workers staying home, quiet with their families.

Severo Cafe owner Anwar Montoya was not among them.

“I was supposed to open today. We’re a new business and I have a lot of things to pay for,” he told the BBC with a laugh.

Of the recent violence, he said: “It was a strange and difficult day – everyone was afraid. And now some are afraid of what could still happen.”

Montoya felt opening his cafe would be welcome, to provide “a safe space for lots of friends.”

Its customers seemed to appreciate the decision, with most tables filled with young people on their laptops or chatting quietly in the shade of the roof terrace.

Among his clients was left-wing MP Mariana Casillas. She sees a lot of things wrong with what happened in Jalisco – both in the cartel violence and in the government’s response.

“It’s not a new scenario,” she says of Mexico’s drug war. “Only on this occasion, because it involved the murder of a high capo [high-ranking member of a crime syndicate]violence exploded in a much more powerful way than usual. »

Organized crime, roadblocks set up by cartels, bus burnings and kidnappings of ordinary citizens are things her community has endured for two decades, she says, since the conflict between the state and the cartels was launched under the presidency of Felipe Calderón in 2006.

“As a local representative, it is my duty to ask myself why this pattern or scenario continues to repeat itself for more than twenty years,” adds Casillas.

It’s a model in which life in Mexico is seen as disposable by drug cartels, she argues, and in which the government remains focused on eliminating the most high-profile cartel leaders rather than addressing the environment of violence and poverty that underpins the gangs — and helping young people join their ranks.

With more than 60 funerals held – for both CJNG infantrymen and National Guard soldiers – it’s an argument that will resonate with many venturing to Jalisco for the first time since Sunday’s violence.

Many fear that the strategy of ousting top leaders will only lead to more fighting.

“Implementing Mexico’s signature strategy over the past two decades — the extraction or assassination of major leaders like El Mencho — has always led to the same result: more violence,” says Deborah Bonello, an expert on the war on drugs and editor-in-chief of the think tank Insight Crime.

She continued: “When you eliminate a major leader, a struggle for control begins in that void. So you will see these squabbles for power in different parts of the country. »

One such region could well be Guadalajara, which is expected to welcome thousands of international soccer fans for the FIFA World Cup in June. One of the most exciting prospects on the field is the lineup between Spain and Uruguay at the city’s main stadium.

But fans would be forgiven for thinking twice about attending the match after this week’s shocking scenes.

Anwar Montoya gives a brief whistle of disbelief when I mention the competition.

“I’ve never been to a World Cup, so I don’t know what it’s like in other countries. But I don’t think it’s a safe place for the World Cup,” he said.

Mariana Casillas agrees, telling the BBC that several “very painful crises” are taking place in Jalisco. These include what she describes as the “crisis of violence, which we have just seen in its maximum expression”, as well as the “crisis of the disappeared”.

Tens of thousands of people have been reported missing in Mexico – almost all since 2007, when Calderón launched his “war on drugs.”

In many cases, the missing people were forcibly recruited into drug cartels – or murdered for resisting.

The Mexican government insists Guadalajara is ready and able to welcome tens of thousands of visitors from around the world in a colorful celebration of sporting excellence.

Sheinbaum said Tuesday there was “no risk” to fans and “all safeguards” were in place.

She said during her daily morning press conference that the situation was normalizing and security forces were working to protect the public.

Fifa boss Gianni Infantino said he was “very reassured” about Mexico’s organization of World Cup matches.

“Everything is fine. It’s going to be spectacular,” Infantino told Agence France-Presse in the Colombian city of Barranquilla.

But Casillas is adamant: “People here don’t want the World Cup. They want security, they want clean water and they want their missing loved ones back.”