Rescue forces operate at a building hit by an Iranian missile strike in Tel Aviv, Israel, Sunday, March 1, 2026.
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The escalating conflict in the Middle East is fueling fears that Washington’s pursuit of regime change in Iran and Tehran’s retaliation could destabilize regions from the Gulf to Europe, leaving world leaders scrambling to assess the consequences.
The United States and Israel launched common strikes against Iran this weekend, killing the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering waves of attacks from Tehran across the region.
President Donald Trump made clear in a video message Saturday following the first wave of U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran that his goal was “to eliminate imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very tough and terrible people.”
Geopolitical analysts have warned that Saturday’s strikes could be the first salvo in a sustained military campaign aimed at dismantling the Iranian regime, as the United States seeks to assert its dominance over the world’s most critical oil-producing region.
“The scale of the U.S. and Israeli strikes, as well as the apparent goal of regime change in Iran, suggest that the military conflict could escalate quickly and unpredictably,” said Rexon Ryu, president of The Asia Group, a business consulting firm. “There is a substantial immediate risk of regional and potentially global escalation, as Iran may now use any available option to respond.”
“Previous strikes targeted the nuclear weapons program,” said David Silbey, a professor of military history at Cornell University, referring to the 12-day war in June last year when the United States and Israel launched airstrikes that damaged three key Iranian nuclear sites.
But “this one will be much broader, targeting command and control, headquarters and leadership, and the military and secret police in general,” Silbey said. “As there appears to be no U.S. ground campaign in sight, the goal is to overthrow the regime domestically, either through a popular uprising or a palace coup.”
Silbey warned that Iran could respond with retaliatory attacks, including missile strikes on Israeli and American bases and military ships in the Persian Gulf, as well as possible terrorist operations in the Middle East, Europe and the United States.
“If the regime feels threatened, it will fight back harder than if it thinks it can overcome the attacks,” Silbey said.
The latest conflagration has already spread to other parts of the Gulf region. Iranian missiles have targeted Israel and several Gulf states, including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan, all countries with air bases containing U.S. assets.
“The years of building Iranian détente with the Gulf may be over,” said Aysha Chowdhry, director of The Asia Group.
Russia and China on the sidelinesBoth Russia and China have made statements condemning the United States, and that will likely continue to be the case even as the situation worsens, but analysts say neither is in a position to provide more meaningful material support.
China, a key economic lifeline for Iran amid heavy Western sanctions, bought more than 80% of oil shipped through Tehran in 2025, representing 13.5% of all Chinese crude imported by sea. Iran is also a key supplier of military drones and missiles to help Moscow in its war efforts in Ukraine.
But years of bitter war in Ukraine have weakened Russia’s ability to project power beyond its borders, said Matt Gerken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.
With its army overstretched and its economy under constant pressure from Western sanctions, Moscow’s influence in the Middle East is set to decline even further, Gerken added.
Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Majid Ebnoreza (L) shakes hands with former Chinese Defense Attaché to the United States Zhang Li after speaking at a plenary session of the Xiangshan Forum in Beijing on September 19, 2025.
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But Beijing stopped short of expressing strong support for Iran as Washington continued to strengthen its military presence in the Gulf ahead of the attack. Instead, he focused on encouraging diplomacy and regional security.
Analysts are watching for potential signs that this latest conflict in the Middle East risks derailing diplomatic engagement between the United States and China and even President Trump’s planned visit to Beijing later this month.
In a statement Saturday evening, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson urged the United States and Israel to “immediately stop military actions” in the region and restore dialogue, calling for “respect for Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity.”
Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed issues including Iran, Taiwan and trade in a Feb. 4 phone call. “Beijing could demand concessions on issues more directly related to its interests, such as Taiwan and trade, in exchange for its significantly watered-down messages on Iran,” said Ahmed Aboudouh, a researcher at Chatham House, a London-based policy think tank.
Paradoxically, a weakened Iran could serve Chinese interests. “The more the Iranian regime weakens, whether due to US or Israeli military strikes or domestic unrest, the more dependent it will become on China diplomatically, economically and technologically,” Aboudouh said.
In the longer term, China will likely feel pressure to assert its dominance in the region. “China will need to demonstrate power projection in its region to deter U.S. military action and create a sphere of influence,” although for now, oil supply vulnerabilities could limit its options, Aboudouh said.
Failed talks The military actions appear to have, at least for now, dashed any remaining prospect of conflict. negotiated settlement on the Iranian nuclear program.
The United States and Iran have engaged in three rounds of indirect talks, with the goal of reaching an agreement on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs and lifting economic sanctions against the country.
With the Iranian regime in a period of “critical vulnerability,” Washington and Jerusalem were unable to secure guarantees of denuclearization and disarmament from Tehran and decided they “could not afford to miss the opportunity to reshape the region,” Gerken said.
