FILE PHOTO: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei salutes during a meeting with students in Tehran, Iran November 2, 2024.
Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader | Via Reuters
The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following joint US-Israeli airstrikes has plunged Iranian leaders into the urgent process of selecting a new supreme leader.
According to the Iranian constitutionthe supreme leader is appointed by the Assembly of Experts, a religious body composed of 88 members elected by the public every eight years. Candidates for the Coven are first vetted by the Guardian Council, which closely controls who can run.
When the position becomes vacant, the Assembly meets to deliberate and choose a successor. The decision requires a simple majority vote.
Waiting for, a provisional board of directors composed of three members assumes the duties of supreme leader until a replacement is officially appointed.
On Sunday, local media reported that temporary advice includes President Masoud Pezeshkian, head of the judiciary Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, who represents the Guardian Council.
Read more US-Iran newsThe power of the council is strictly transitionalwhile the Assembly of Experts retains sole constitutional power to choose Iran’s next supreme leader.
On Polymarkettraders rate Mohseni-Ejei as the narrow favorite at around 18%. Other leading contenders include Arafi and Iranian cleric Hassan Khomeini.
The ‘Post Abolished’ result follows closely behind, suggesting that while markets are still leaning towards an individual successor, there is significant speculation around potential structural change within the office itself.
Here are some main competitors:
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei Candidate for Iranian Intelligence Minister Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei listens to a speech by a lawmaker in the Iranian Parliament, August 21, 2005.
Atta Kenare | Afp | Getty Images
Mohseni-Ejei was the Chief Justice of Iran since July 2021overseeing the country’s judicial system and overseeing legal policy throughout the Islamic Republic.
Before that, he served as attorney general from 2009 to 2014, first deputy chief and spokesperson of the judiciary from 2014 to 2021, and previously held national security positions, including minister of intelligence from 2005 to 2009.
He is also a long-time member of the Expediency Discernment Council, a key advisory body to Iran’s leaders, and his career includes senior positions in the judiciary and security apparatus.
Hassan KhomeiniHassan Khomeini, grandson of late Iranian leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, attends the opening ceremony of Hashemi Rafsanjani Hospital.
Nuphoto | Nuphoto | Getty Images
Khomeini is the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and could theoretically serve as a bridge between the revolutionary system and pro-reform voters, the president said. Council on Foreign Relations.
CFR suggested that the elevation of someone like him could help preserve the central structure of the Islamic Republic, ease Iran’s international isolation and address popular discontent at home.
Alireza ArafiArafi is a senior Iranian cleric and influential figure within the religious and political hierarchy of the Islamic Republic. He rose through the ranks of the religious establishment with a series of key appointments, including director of Iran’s seminaries, head of Friday prayers in Qom, and member of the Guardian Council and Assembly of Experts, the body constitutionally charged with selecting the supreme leader.
Arafi’s role in shaping theological education and selecting political candidates made him a central part of Iran’s clerical power structure.
What’s next?Below Article 111 of the Iranian Constitutionthe death or incapacity of the paramount leader immediately triggers the formation of a temporary ruling council to exercise his powers until a successor is chosen.
The Constitution does not set a strict deadline for the Assembly of Experts to appoint a new leader, but it does stipulate that the Assembly must act “with the shortest possible delay.”
Analysts warn, however, that the formal succession process could be accompanied by intense negotiations between elites and broader geopolitical uncertainty.
Amin Saikal, professor emeritus at the University of Western Australia, said that while Mohseni-Ejei may emerge as a front-runner, the Assembly of Experts could opt for another member, or even someone from outside.
“There’s going to be a lot of haggling,” he said, adding that “whatever comes out of this might be a compromise,” he told CNBC.
He added that a hardline successor would likely continue Khamenei’s confrontational posture and security-first policy, while a more moderate figure might seek limited reforms aimed at easing domestic restrictions and improving foreign relations to ease sanctions pressure.
Separately, Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia and professor at Stanford University, noted that historically, air campaigns rarely lead to regime toppling, questioning how current U.S. strikes, which target military assets rather than domestic instruments of repression, would translate into the broader regime change announced by Washington.