Synopsis
In a dramatic turn of events, the Indian rupee fell sharply in a single trading session, marking its biggest decline since late 2022. The decline was fueled by soaring oil prices amid growing tensions in West Asia, pushing the currency to a new record low.
AND OfficeTHE Indian rupee plunged as much as 110 paise on Friday, registering its biggest single-day rout since late 2022, after oil surged amid a relentless barrage of attacks from both sides on respective energy installations in West Asia. It fell to an all-time low of 93.73 as New Delhi paid a significant price premium for its Thursday oil supplies before the unit closed at 93.71/$.
The pace of the decline was rather rapid, apparently offsetting Thursday’s public holiday in Mumbai, with traders saying that market estimates of the central bank’s short dollar positions and sustained selling of Indian stocks by foreign investors put additional pressure on the rupee, which has lost more than 2.5% since the start of the Iran war.
THE Reserve Bank of India (RBI) sold dollars at several levels on Friday, but traders said its interventions were aimed only at moderating the pace of depreciation – not reversing the pronounced downward trend.
The rupee closed at 92.63/$ on Wednesday, according to LSEG data.
“If current trends continue, the rupee may weaken to the levels of 94/$ to 95/$, but the outlook remains very fluid,” said Lakshmi Iyer, group president – investments, Bajaj Finserv.
ETMarkets.com
One way ticket “So far, we have already seen reasonable intervention from the central bank, but beyond a certain point, the currency has to reflect the market balance,” Iyer said.
“With sustained REIT outflows and geopolitical uncertainty, the market is still looking for stability, and setting a firm range now would be like throwing darts in the dark,” he said.
The rupee opened at 92.89/$ on Friday and declined steadily, crossing the 93/$ mark in the first hour of the day.
Traders said the RBI was shorting dollars at all key levels: 92.90/$, 93/$ and 93.50/$.
“There has been no positive news for the rupee since the start of the war, and while such a significant decline was not expected, it is understandable,” said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors. “Importers are selling dollars to cover their positions at almost every level, as they expect the currency to fall further, and at the same time, exporters have stopped hedging altogether.”
Bhansali expects the rupee to trade between 93.25/$ and 94.25/$ on Monday, as crude oil price continue to stay above $100 per barrel.
India’s crude oil basket stood at $156 per barrel on March 19, according to Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) data, implying that India is paying a premium of $46 per barrel.
Brent crude prices are trading at $110 per barrel.
Reuters reported that Tehran attacked an oil refinery in Kuwait on Friday even as Tel Aviv pledged to avoid further attacks on Iran’s South Pars gas field a day after an Iranian retaliatory strike on Qatar caused damage that could cripple natural gas supplies for several years.
“Geopolitical tensions and its impact on crude prices will influence the rupee levels. At the start of the crisis in West Asia, the rupee was expected to range between $93/$ and $94/$,” said Sameer Karyatt, managing director and head of trading at DBS Bank. “But continued conflict and upward pressure on crude oil prices are likely to guide the rupee towards a range of $94.50/$ to $95/$,” he said. inflationary pressures and widen India’s current account deficit by increasing the import bill. They also weigh on economic growth by increasing input costs for businesses and reducing consumer demand.
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