Historic Big Ten Sweet 16: Ranking the six teams by championship potential

The opening weekend of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament began and ended with a thud for the Big Ten. In an instant, No. 8 Ohio State lost to No. 9 TCU in the very first game that took place on Thursday afternoon. It wasn’t long after that that #5 Wisconsin was upset by #12 High Point in one of the most exciting games we’ve seen thus far. And on Sunday night, with just two Sweet 16 spots still up for grabs, No. 7 UCLA fell to No. 2 UConn. But between the two? Oh, man, apparently everything went the conference’s way in an event that has largely muddled the league since its last national champion, Michigan State, cut down the nets in 2000. When the dust finally settled, six Big Ten teams had reached the Sweet 16 in Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Nebraska and Iowa. That’s just shy of an NCAA Tournament record set by the SEC last year. “We cheered like crazy for the Big Ten, and everyone did well,” Michigan head coach Dusty May said in a press conference earlier this week. “It’s important for recruiting, for the future, television rights and packages, everything that goes with the business of college basketball. How we perform in the NCAA Tournament is incredibly important.” So how do the Super Sixes stack up? Aside from Michigan, which everyone knows has been the best team in the Big Ten all season, how is the hierarchy shaken? Here’s a breakdown based on what we’ve seen so far: 6. Iowa Hawkeyes (No. 9 seed) Round of 16: Defeated No. 8 Clemson, 67-61 Round of 16: Defeated No. 1 Florida, 73-72 Sweet 16: vs. No. 4 Nebraska (Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET) What a ride for first-year head coach Ben McCollum, who has now guided the Hawkeyes to their first Sweet 16 berth since 1999 and only the ninth such appearance in school history thanks to a stunning upset of No. 1 Florida. Forward Alvaro Folgueiras made a 3-pointer from the right corner with 4.5 seconds remaining to officially dethrone the Gators, last year’s national title winners. Now, Iowa will challenge conference rival Nebraska for the opportunity to reach the Elite Eight, something the Hawkeyes haven’t done since 1987. McCollum’s team has advanced this far by relying on the best offense in the NCAA Tournament based on advanced metrics. An offensive efficiency rating of 142 points per 100 possessions since the start of March Madness is nearly two points ahead of any other team in the field, according to Torvik. Much of that success can be attributed to offensive rebounds and free throws. Iowa grabbed 35 offensive rebounds in its first two tournament games and used those extra possessions to rack up 53 free throw attempts (38 made). The Hawkeyes will face a stiffer test against Nebraska, whose defense ranks fourth since the start of the Big Dance. 5. Nebraska Cornhuskers (No. 4 seed) Round of 16: Defeated No. 13 Troy, 76-47 Round of 16: Defeated No. 5 Vanderbilt, 74-72 Sweet 16: vs. No. 9 Iowa (Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET) Last weekend’s triumph in Oklahoma City, where the Paycom Center was awash in red, is one the proud fans of the Nebraska I won’t soon forget. It started with the Cornhuskers earning their first ever NCAA Tournament victory by knocking off Troy in the first round, ending their drought as the last power conference team without a win in this event. Then, on Saturday, the Nebraska faithful were treated to one of the best games of opening weekend, narrowly surviving a three-quarter court heave at the buzzer. Hearts were beating, mouths were wide open. Although Nebraska is known for running a cosmetic offense under head coach Fred Hoiberg, who received another contract extension earlier this month, the Cornhuskers play fierce defense in the tournament. They rank fourth in defensive efficiency, ninth in effective field goal defense percentage and 11th in forced turnover rate. Thursday’s challenge will face a conference opponent that Nebraska split its two regular-season meetings against: a 57-52 road loss on Feb. 17 and an 84-75 overtime home victory on March 8. [MEN’S TOURNEY: Ranking Sweet 16 Matchups] 4. Michigan State Spartans (No. 3 seed) Round of 16: Defeated No. 14 North Dakota State, 92-67 Round of 16: Defeated No. 6 Louisville, 77-69 Sweet 16: vs. No. 2 UConn (Friday, 9:45 p.m. ET) While it’s true that Michigan State played well in both opening weekend games, the Spartans also had the chance of receiving a relatively favorable draw. They were likely never challenged by a North Dakota State team ranked 125th or lower in offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. They also weren’t likely to face Louisville at full strength given the lingering back issue of freshman sensation Mikel Brown Jr. (18.2 ppg), who missed his team’s two games and is now likely to enter the NBA draft as a potential lottery pick. But that doesn’t mean head coach Tom Izzo doesn’t have reason to be excited about entering the Sweet 16 matchup with UConn. In terms of perimeter shooting, the Spartans have already made 21 3-pointers in this year’s tournament — 10 against North Dakota State, 11 against Louisville — despite averaging just 7.8 3-pointers per game, which ranks them tied for 176th nationally. Junior forward Coen Carr, whose offensive contributions are often inconsistent, averaged 19 points per game in the opening weekend. Huge production from players such as freshman forward Cam Ward (15 total points) and senior guard Trey Fort (19 combined points) took some pressure off the Spartans’ top four players. 3. Purdue Boilermakers (No. 2 seed) Round of 16: Defeated No. 15 Queens, 101-74 Round of 16: Defeated No. 7 Miami, 79-69 Sweet 16: vs. No. 11 Texas (Thursday, 7:10 p.m. ET) Is there a team in the country hotter than Purdue right now? Starting with a win over Northwestern in the second round of the Big Ten tournament, the Boilermakers have won six in a row by an average margin of 16.2 points per game. And during that time, according to Torvik, head coach Matt Painter’s team has the most efficient offense in the country at 140.2 points per 100 possessions. On a larger scale, more than six weeks have passed since Purdue was last held to fewer than 70 points (Feb. 7 vs. Oregon). The biggest question facing the Boilermakers against Texas and, potentially beyond, is whether the top three can continue to produce at such a high level. Point guard Braden Smith, now the record holder for most assists in Division I history, has 38 points and 16 assists in two games. Shooter Fletcher Loyer made four 3-pointers in each round. Power forward Trey Kaufman-Renn has dominated the paint scoring 44 points and grabbing 18 rebounds so far, albeit against undersized front courts. Can they perform as well against the length and athleticism of the Longhorns? What about a potential matchup with No. 1 Arizona in the Elite Eight? 2. Illinois Fighting Illini (No. 3 seed) Round of 16: Defeated No. 14 Penn, 105-70 Round of 16: Defeated No. 11 VCU, 76-55 Sweet 16: vs. No. 2 Houston (Thursday, 10:05 p.m. ET) Illinois is another team whose first weekend in the NCAA Tournament was somewhat fortuitous. The Illini opened by hammering an undermanned Penn team, which only qualified for the Big Dance by upsetting a much more dangerous Yale team in the Ivy League tournament title game. And then, facing the possibility of a second-round matchup against No. 6 North Carolina, whose head coach, Hubert Davis, was subsequently fired, the Illini took advantage of the Tar Heels’ stunning second-half collapse against VCU. They reached the Sweet 16 without facing an opponent ranked in the top 40 in KenPom. But there’s no doubt that Illinois, seeking the program’s first Final Four appearance since 2005, has the high-end talent, position size and roster depth to be considered among the best teams in the country. Brad Underwood’s team has a handful of future pros including point guard Keaton Wagler, small forward David Mirkovic and the Ivisic brothers on the interior – a quartet that’s tough for most opposing teams to match. Illinois finished plus-16 on the glass against VCU and plus-23 on the glass against Penn, showing how dangerous and dominant this team can be, even when initial shots aren’t falling. [MEN’S TOURNEY: Top 16 Players In The Sweet 16] 1. Michigan Wolverines (No. 1 seed) Round of 32: Defeated No. 16 Howard, 101-80 Round of 32: Defeated No. 9 St. Louis, 95-72 Sweet 16: vs. No. 4 Alabama (Friday, 7:35 p.m. ET) Fans could be forgiven for thinking there was an element of Michigan playing with its food in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament. The Wolverines sat back and played lax defense as Howard buried 10 3-pointers in the first half of a game that had just a four-point margin at the break. They also only led St. Louis by one point with less than seven minutes left in the first half before finally shifting into high gear and pulling away. Legitimate reasons to worry? Maybe. But the more likely explanation is that Michigan, one of the most talented teams in the country, always knew it was going to win these games and came in late. Alabama might not test the Wolverines too much either — especially without second-leading scorer Aden Holloway, who was shut down earlier this month and did not play in the NCAA tournament. The biggest question is whether No. 2 Iowa State can advance into the bottom half of the Midwest bracket and potentially challenge Michigan in the Elite Eight. Much depends on the health of Cyclones star Joshua Jefferson (sprained ankle), a first-team All-American who missed the Round of 16 victory over Kentucky. If Jefferson’s health remains an issue, the Wolverines could advance to the Final Four.