President Donald Trump said Thursday that neither the surge in oil prices nor the stock market slump during the Iran war was as bad as he expected.
At a Cabinet meeting, Trump expressed confidence in the war effort and said the economic damage would be reversed.
Speaking to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the president said oil prices “haven’t gone up as much as I thought, Scott, to be honest with you. It’s all going to go back to where it was and probably lower.”
Markets reacted to geopolitical signals, paying attention to any signs of progress or intensity of the war.
Prices of American crude flirted with $100 a barrel at the start of the conflict, but fell as Trump insisted the fighting would end soon. But overall, oil prices jumped more than 40 percent during the war, driving up the price of gasoline by more than a dollar a gallon.
On the stock market, the S&P 500 index was down 4.8% in March and 6.5% compared to its record at the start of the year.
These two indicators serve as a benchmark for how Trump perceives his economic successes. He harshly criticized former President Joe Biden when gas prices soared under his watch, and Trump repeatedly pointed out that the Dow Jones Industrial Average had surpassed 50,000 in early February.
Trump said the economic damage would ease once the war ended.
“My predictions were right,” he said.
Nevertheless, Wall Street economists in recent days increased the risks of a recession over the next 12 months, with most saying that unless the war ends soon, the damage to the economy from inflation and oil-related spillovers will cause a contraction.
The major averages were negative as Trump spoke while oil rose more than 4%. Earlier today, Trump posted on social media that Iranian negotiators “had better get serious before it’s too late.”
