TEHRAN, Iran — Iran will enter peace talks with the United States emboldened by regime survival and the key lever he still holds, experts say, even as Israeli strikes on Lebanon threaten to derail the process and the heavy cost of five weeks of war piles up.
“We have granted you a clear victory”, new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei ” said Thursday in a statement released by Iranian state media ahead of talks expected to take place in Islamabad this weekend.
It is a message that has been constantly emphasized by Tehran this week. Like their American counterparts, Iranian officials celebrated what they consider a major victory in the war.
“The era of Iran has begun,” Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref boasted in an article on X after the two-week ceasefire was announced.
The truce allowed large pro-government crowds to gather safely in the heart of Tehran on Thursday to mark the 40th day since the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Some mourners beat their chests, crying and chanting against capitulation or compromise.
“I’m not very optimistic, because we know the other side,” Yahya, an attendee, told NBC News. “I think it’s more of a deception, a trap.”
“What we want, they will definitely not give us,” Yahya said. “And what they want, we will definitely not accept.”
This distrust was also evident in comments from government officials, who publicly took a hard line on issues likely to be at the heart of the negotiations: the Strait of Hormuz and Iran. nuclear program.
“The top” President Donald Trump pledged to wipe out “the entire civilization” of Iran if it does not accept an agreement to reopen the strait, through which some 20% of the world’s oil passes.
But just 48 hours after triumphantly announcing the truce, Trump accused Iran of “doing a very poor job” of open the waterway. Traffic has remained largely at a standstill despite the ceasefire, with Tehran demonstrating its continued ability to effectively close the vital trade route and keep energy prices high.
“Iran emerged from this phase of the war with the strategic advantage because it effectively asserted its authority over the Strait of Hormuz,” said Burcu Ozcelik, a senior fellow on Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute.
Still, she added, she did not anticipate that Trump would agree to some of Iran’s more controversial demands.
A woman holds a poster mocking President Donald Trump during a rally marking 40 days since the death of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei Thursday in Tehran.AFP via Getty ImagesMourners gathered in Tehran on Thursday to pay their respects to the late supreme leader.NBC NewsTrump suggested that a 10-point proposal put forward by Tehran would provide a “viable basis on which to negotiate” a more comprehensive peace deal.
But U.S. officials said he was not referring to the same 10-point plan outlined by Iranian officials and state media, which called for maintaining Iran’s control over transit through the strait and completely withdrawing U.S. combat forces from its bases in the region.
Several Iranian media outlets also reported that the plan included “acceptance of enrichment” for Tehran’s nuclear program, which would appear to contradict the US position.
“I do not believe that President Trump will agree to allow Iran to go down a path that could lead to obtaining a nuclear weapon,” Ozcelik said.
“So we are going to have at least two very difficult weeks,” she said.
Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, agreed, telling NBC News earlier this week that while Tehran “will want to argue that the enrichment will stay in Iran,” it would be a major victory if that demand were met.
Above the negotiations, which will be led by Vice President JD Vance on the American side, is Lebanon.
Military troops patrol to provide security ahead of U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad on Thursday.Anjum Naveed / APTehran has warned that Israel’s continued assault on Lebanon, where dozens of people were killed in a massive Israeli attack after the Iranian ceasefire took effect, could render the negotiations meaningless.
Israel and the United States have maintained that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire, but Iran and mediator Pakistan have said it is.
Israel has said it plans to hold direct talks with Lebanon, where it continues to carry out attacks with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group. The Lebanese government has not yet responded to this offer, and it is unclear whether this will satisfy Iran.
Relief and fear in IranIn Tehran, many residents were outside Friday morning, some gathering for coffee, eager to enjoy some semblance of normal life as many doubted the ceasefire would hold.
At the previous day’s rally, a man on a motorcycle lamented that he had not been paid for two months for his work at an education company and that he had been forced to work at Snapp, Iran’s Uber. “Why are they happy?” he asked the pro-regime crowd.
Even though the war is over, the country’s already struggling economy now faces serious difficulties – although sanctions relief and compensation are also part of Iran’s 10-point plan. One teacher expressed fears that water shortages will return and economic problems will persist if Iran does not reach a good deal with the United States.
Members of Iranian security forces stand guard under a large portrait of Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, in Tehran on Thursday.Majid Saeedi/Getty ImagesOne woman, Azadeh, 42, said earlier this week that it was “too early to say or be sure” of what would happen in the coming days.
She lives with her family outside Tehran, but said she would return to the capital to celebrate her birthday if the ceasefire is still in effect.
“We are all for peace,” she said.
Others were dismayed that, despite Trump’s claims of regime change, the country’s radical religious leaders remained in place.
“We really thought they were finished,” said one resident, a fitness trainer from Tehran who has joined anti-regime protests since 2009.
“A lot of us were hoping that this would be the end of them. We tried everything, but it didn’t work,” the 36-year-old said earlier this week. “I’m not happy. What happens next?”