Trade, Taiwan and Iran cast shadow over Trump-Xi China summit

BEIJING — President Donald Trump to begin two-day summit with Chinese president Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday, as the world’s two largest economies seek to stabilize a trade truce amid simmering tensions. American conflict with Iran.

Trump’s visit, the first by a US president since his own trip nine years ago, will be “a crazy visit”, he promised this year, telling an event in Washington that he had told Xi to “put on the biggest demonstration you’ve ever had in the history of China”.

Trump has always defined his relationship with Xi in warm, personal terms, but this trip carries more pressure than either side publicly acknowledges.

Trade will be at the forefront of discussions and Trump will bring more than a dozen business leaders, including Apple’s, with him to Beijing. Tim Cook And Elon Muskthe chief executive of SpaceX and Tesla, who led Trump’s company Ministry of Government Effectiveness. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang joined Trump on the tarmac in Alaska for the second leg of the flight to China.

The goal this week will be to return to Washington with positive economic news and a strengthened personal relationship that both governments consider the most important bilateral relationship in the world. The possibility of extending the trade truce concluded between Washington and Beijing last fall is also on the agenda.

Still, expectations for the summit’s outcome are muted, with both leaders facing domestic and international setbacks that could limit their room for maneuver. Trump, whose popularity rating is at its peak lowest point of his second termsaw much of its global tariff regime has been rolled back by American courts and is engaged in an unpopular war with Iran that spans an initial six weeks and causes gas prices to skyrocket.

Xi has his own long-standing economic problems, including high youth unemploymentweak consumer demand and crumbling real estate sectoras well as new concerns regarding how long can China resist the energy shocks of the war in Iran.

Former officials and experts also hope the summit will establish rules that give Trump more room to advance his domestic priorities.

“The bottom line, beyond the pageantry, is that the economic relationship needs to be placed on a balance that would give the United States sufficient time to strengthen our resilience and our supply chains, for this president later in his term and for future presidents,” said Alexander Gray, managing director of American Global Strategies, who was responsible for national security during Trump’s first term.

“Soy sales are good, but the important thing is to establish the ground rules, to establish the left and right boundaries of the relationship, to establish what is acceptable to both parties and what would constitute an unacceptable disruption in the economic balance.”

Gray and others pointed to a clear safeguard that Trump should seek to establish: “The Chinese understand that it is unacceptable for them to suspend their exports of rare earths.”

China controls the dominant share of mining and refining of rare earth materials essential to modern technology and weaponry, and he has shown a willingness to use this leverage. “One of the things we know is that the Chinese are going to use it as a weapon for as long as they have the capability,” Gray said.

Trump and Xi are also expected to discuss the creation of a U.S.-China Trade Council and a U.S.-China Investment Council, which would allow the two governments to manage trade in non-sensitive goods and establish a government-to-government forum on investment-related issues, according to White House principal deputy spokesperson Anna Kelly, who said the deals touching on aerospace, agriculture and energy were all up for grabs. the agenda.

“These agreements will further rebalance trade with China, while putting American workers, farmers and families first and preserving America’s economic strength and national security,” Kelly said.

Low expectations and small victories

With only modest developments expected at the summit, both sides will instead seek narrow victories, said Allen Carlson, an associate professor of government at Cornell University and an expert on Chinese foreign policy.

“The summit itself, I think, is a victory for China in terms of strengthening and improving China’s reputation as a great power, potentially as a sort of broker for peace in the Middle East,” Carlson said in an interview.

Trump, he said, is seeking more help from China with Iran, with which he has close tiesbut he also “needs, I think, a victory on the world stage in general.”

Before leaving Washington on Tuesday, Trump told reporters that he expected to have “a long discussion” with Xi about the war in Iran, but that it was not an item on the agenda. The negotiations, “more than anything else,” he said, would be about trade.

“I don’t think we need help with Iran. We will win one way or another,” he said.

Trump and Xi have spoken about the war in Iran “multiple times,” a senior administration official told reporters, and Trump is expected to press Xi over revenue and goods that China provides to the Iranian government, as well as what the official described as “potential arms exports.”

China, which Trump credits with helping bring Iran to the negotiating table, has called for a diplomatic solution to the conflict and criticized U.S. sanctions on Chinese companies and people doing business with Iran as illegal.

In search of stability

Xi will work to avoid the war in Iran dominating the negotiations, as Beijing believes the summit should focus on U.S.-China relations. Washington’s position towards Taiwanthe autonomous democracy that Beijing claims as its territory.

Leader-to-leader diplomacy still offers opportunities. “I can’t imagine a meeting, probably not since Nixon and Mao met several decades ago, in which both leaders would have this much latitude to make decisions,” Kurt Campbell, who was deputy secretary of state in the Biden administration, said during a recent briefing with reporters. “They are virtually unencumbered by bureaucratic constraints on both sides. »

On Thursday morning, Trump will participate in a welcome ceremony and meet with Xi before visiting the Temple of Heaven, a vast architectural masterpiece dating back to the 15th century, followed by a state banquet in the evening. On Friday, he will join Xi for tea and a working lunch before leaving for Washington. The two leaders are expected to meet at least one more time this year, when Trump hosts Xi in Washington.

When Trump and Xi met last year in Busan, South Koreaon the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, China pledged to buy 12 million tonnes of US soybeans in 2025 and a minimum of 25 million tonnes per year for the next three years – having finalized a trade truce that came after Trump raised tariffs on goods from China by up to 145%. Trump also said China had agreed to a one-year reprieve on export controls on rare earth minerals, a deal he described at the time as likely to be “systematically extended.”

The White House confirmed that discussions on extending this agreement were active, but did not make an announcement to Beijing. “It is not yet clear whether this will be extended now or whether it will have to be extended later,” said a second senior administration official. “What both sides want is stability.”

Washington’s influence has diminished on other fronts. The US Court of International Trade last week Trump canceled 10% global tariffsdealing a major blow to one of the administration’s pressure tools and limiting the White House’s ability to implement the type of coercive options that Trump has imposed in previous negotiations.

“Last year, what the Chinese agreed to do was basically restart exports of rare earths. And I think there are real questions about whether they actually followed through on that deal,” said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Concern about Taiwan

One issue that will be closely watched is what Trump says about Taiwanwhich Beijing has promised to bring under its control by force, if necessary. Like most countries, the United States has no formal relationship with Taiwan, but it is the island’s largest international donor and arms supplier.

Trump alarmed Taiwan supporters with comments suggesting he and Xi were discussing US arms sales to Taiwan, which some experts say would violate long-standing U.S. policy barring such consultations with Beijing.

Asked Monday about selling arms to Taiwan, Trump said: “President Xi would like us not to do it, and I will discuss it. It’s one of many things I will talk about.”

In addition to curbing arms sales, China hopes to encourage Trump to soften Washington’s stance on Taiwan’s political status.

“They are keeping their eye on the prize, which they hope will be American concessions on Taiwan, and they do not want to allow either side to be distracted from this conversation because of events in the Middle East. -East,” said Henrietta Levin, a senior fellow at the think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, who was a senior official overseeing China policy during the Biden administration.

China has already indicated that it intends to discuss Taiwan, which China’s foreign minister has proposed. Wang Yi described as “at the very heart of China’s core interests,” according to a readout of a recent call with the secretary of state. Marco Rubiowho is traveling with Trump.

China wants the United States to revise its stated policy on Taiwan’s status to favor “peaceful reunification” between the island and mainland China, instead of the current position that calls for a “peaceful resolution.”

A senior administration official said U.S. policy toward Taiwan had not changed and no changes were expected. The official also stressed that the United States insisted that the project be fully funded. Taiwan’s defense budget and that arms sales to Taiwan during Trump’s second term have exceeded four years under the previous administration.

Trump said Monday that he expects Taiwan to be part of the discussions, saying “it always comes up” and suggesting the island has support from Japan and other regional partners and drawing parallels with Ukraine.

Katherine Doyle and Jennifer Jett reported from Beijing and Dan De Luce and Andrea Mitchell from Washington.