Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., speaks with a reporter in the Statuary Room of the U.S. Capitol, Friday, March 27, 2026.
Tom Williams | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images
Republicans I have been saying for months that inflation is the former president Joe BidenIt’s a problem. Today, they face the risk of an inflationary crisis of their own making, just in time for the midterm electionand the blame game has only just begun.
Inflation increased to 3.8% year-on-year in April, the highest rating since 2023. Much of this increase is due to soaring energy prices, which have persisted since President Donald Trump started a war with Iran.
Trump and congressional Republicans swept to power in 2024 promising to defeat the inflation that has dampened Biden’s presidency. But now they risk being crushed 2026 midterm elections “militarization”.
Republican Party members of Congress are now wondering if their priorities are in the right place.
“When half of America lives paycheck to paycheck, the word ‘ballroom’ should not be in anyone’s vocabulary,” Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., a moderate who represents a swing district, told reporters at the Capitol. “We should always focus on affordability, always. Both sides got it wrong. That’s why we’re in the crisis we’re in now.”
Fitzpatrick’s comments constitute a rare rebuke of Trump’s priorities within his own party, which has largely stood by the president through months of economic tumult caused by an on-and-off tariff regime and now the war with Iran.
And asked about what Republicans might say to voters in their districts, Fitzpatrick didn’t exactly defend the GOP’s point of view.
“What if both parties are broken, that’s why we need to end the two-party system?” he said.
Read more about CNBC’s politics coverageHe is not alone among Republicans in warning that surging inflation will hurt the party in November, especially after years of high costs weighing on Americans.
“It’s not as bad as the worst it’s been under Biden,” said Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., a frequent critic of the president who will retire at the end of his term. “But I think most Americans haven’t recovered from all of that, and that’s why it’s still a problem.”
Bacon has aimed his fire at Trump’s tariffs to combat inflation.
“I think tariffs are bad policy. Milton Friedman, Adam Smith, those are the bibles of conservatism, and we’ve violated them,” he said, referring to free-market economists. “We should not have revisited this here in Congress.”
Asked what Republicans can say to show Americans that life is better under Republican rule, Bacon replied that “surely the president can show that we have secured the border.”
It’s been four years since the U.S. consumer price index hit its pandemic-related peak of 9% in June 2022, triggering Americans’ anger over post-Covid price hikes. Today, the war with Iran is once again fueling fears about financial accessibility.
Food at home increased 0.7% between March and April alone, according to the latest release of the Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This contrasts with the average monthly increase of 0.25% in food prices in 2025.
And the national average for a gallon of gasoline was $4.49 Tuesday, 51 percent higher than before the war began. according to AAA.
Voters have been expressing dissatisfaction with the cost of goods and the economy in general for years. At the same time, Trump’s approval on the economy has plummeted, with only 33% of voters giving him positive marks in a recent poll. New York Times/College of Siena survey. His approval on cost of living was even worse, with only 28% of voters saying they were in favor.
Democrats are leading in generic congressional polls. A RealClearPolitics the polling average puts Democrats up 7.1 percentage points over Republicans. Republicans hold a five-seat majority in the House.
Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., chairwoman of the New Democratic Coalition, speaks with members of the press outside the West Wing of the White House after meeting with President Joe Biden to discuss his domestic agenda, Wednesday, March 30, 2022, in Washington. Alongside DelBene are Rep. Scott Peters, Democrat of California, left, and Rep. Ami Bera, Democrat of California.
Patrick Semanski AP
representative Susan Del BeneD-Wash., who is the chairman of the House Democratic campaign arm, told CNBC that voters were reacting to “broken promises.”
“They kept saying, ‘Just wait and things will get better,'” DelBene said. “None of this is true, and people are tired of broken promises. Trump said he was going to cut costs on day one.”
Not all Republicans are giving up hope of being able to reverse the inflation trend.
representative Zach NunnR-Iowa, said he expects voters to respond to the tax cuts Republicans passed as part of the 2025 budget reconciliation measure known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
“If you’re looking for solutions on this, which group just gave the largest tax cut in American history?” Nunn said. “We’ve done more trade deals than ever before…we’ve gotten things like biofuels passed, that’s $23 billion in economic growth for my home state of Iowa, and we’ve also been able to say we’ve made real offshoring a priority, so local economic growth is kicking off.”
And senior Republican leaders continue to offer optimistic outlooks on the economy and the upcoming election.
President of the House Mike JohnsonR-La., said Sunday that he expects Republicans to win in November.
“I’m absolutely convinced that we’re going to increase the majority,” Johnson told Fox News during an interview at the Indy 500. “Kitchen table issues are going to decide the midterm elections.”
How Republicans will lower meal prices in time for the election, however, remains an open question. Some Republicans have introduced a third tax and spending plan this year, focused on cutting costs. This would be a monumental task, especially after Trump. angered some allies in the Senate last week with his dance campaign, support from challengers to popular incumbents and the Justice Department’s “militarization” fund.
But most Republican policymakers agree that the most critical price, gasoline, probably won’t fall until the war with Iran ends or the Strait of Hormuz — the critical canal that carries a fifth of the world’s oil — opens.
Natural resources research company Mackenzie Woodin a recent analysis, found that if the conflict is resolved quickly, Brent crude would fall to $80 a barrel by the end of the year. If the strait remains closed until the end of the year, the situation would only get worse, with crude reaching $200 a barrel by the end of the year.
“It all comes down to getting energy costs back to where they need to be, and that will involve reaching a resolution in Iran,” said House Natural Resources Chairman Bruce Westerman, R-Ark. “There are still some things we could do through reconciliation, but this is just a fundamental issue of supply and demand.”
Clarification: This article has been updated to clarify that the U.S. Consumer Price Index reached its pandemic-related peak of 9% in June 2022.