JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said investors underestimate the risks facing the global economy and would not buy stocks or securities for the long term. American treasures at their current prices.
In an hour-long interview with Wilfred Givre Published late Monday, Dimon said markets were not fully accounting for a growing list of geopolitical and fiscal threats.
“I think these risks are probably bigger than others think,” Dimon said, pointing to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, tensions between the United States and China and increased military spending at a time of growing government deficits.
Asked whether markets are underpricing the risk of a major shock, Dimon said it’s difficult to know exactly what risks are already reflected in asset prices.
“It’s possible that something is integrated, but what’s not integrated is what’s actually happening,” he said.
Dimon, who runs the world’s largest bank by market capitalization, often warns the public about the economic risks he sees.
Jamie Dimon, Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., speaks at the 2025 Annual Meeting of Members of the Institute of International Finance in Washington, October 16, 2025.
Samuel Corum | Bloomberg | Getty Images
His latest comments contrast with investors’ recent willingness to look beyond wars, tariffs and other shocks. THE S&P500 has returned nearly 10% this year as consumers continue to spend, inflation has moderated and investors embrace the artificial intelligence business.
Last week, JPMorgan Chase and his peers posted blockbuster quarterly results propelled by the increase in trade and investment bank earnings, reinforcing the view that the U.S. economy has weathered recent geopolitical turmoil better than expected.
Dimon acknowledged in the interview with “The Master Investor Podcast” that the global economy has become more resilient due to less energy dependence than in previous decades, but cautioned that this does not eliminate the possibility of a sudden inflection point.
“It may take more straws in the camel’s back to cause this tipping point,” he said. “Even the current war starting again, it may not be enough to achieve this.”
Persistent U.S. budget deficits will eventually force a reckoning, which could lead to higher interest rates, Dimon said.
“I think this is going to become a problem,” he said, predicting rising interest rates. bond watchers demand greater compensation to finance the government’s debt.
Actions, AI cycleWhen asked, Dimon said he wouldn’t buy long-term Treasuries: “Personally, no,” he said.
Even if inflation fell back toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, “the 10-year bonds would probably be in the 4% to 4.5% range,” he said, adding that he saw little upside potential for Treasury prices.
He was equally cautious about stocks. Although he would consider an individual stock if it was “a great investment,” Dimon said he wouldn’t be a buyer in the broader market at current valuations.
Dimon also took a measured tone on artificial intelligence, comparing the current spending boom to the early days of the Internet.
“The amount of money spent is enormous. Will it pay off in total? Probably, just like the Internet did,” Dimon said.
He also pointed out that during this Internet boom, major early players such as Yahoo and Netscape disappeared while eventual winners such as Google And Facebook appeared later.
“Will it pay off the way you hope and on the schedule you expect? Certainly not,” Dimon said.