Bernd Debusmann Jr.White House reporter
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US President Donald Trump was quick to declare victory after the recovery of the second crew member of a downed F-15 fighter jet over Iran, saying the dramatic and successful rescue on Iranian territory “proves, once again, that we have achieved overwhelming air dominance and superiority.”
Observers, however, paint a more complex picture of what this means for the United States in Iran.
Although the mission was a success, the events of recent days — in which two planes were shot down and at least one helicopter hit by fire — underscore that threats to U.S. aircraft and personnel remain even after weeks of heavy U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran’s military infrastructure and the president’s boasts that Tehran had “no more anti-aircraft equipment.”
Several Washington sources interviewed by the BBC speculated that the loss of planes and the complexity of the pilot recovery operation could potentially deter Trump from any ground operation aimed at taking control of Iran’s main oil export terminal in Kharg Island and other Gulf sites, or to seize highly enriched uranium buried deep underground in Iran.
These operations — defined by military planners and presented to the president as options — are extremely complex and risk exposing U.S. forces to lingering Iranian capabilities, including hard-to-find man-portable air defense systems known as Manpads, which are shoulder-launched missiles most effective against low-flying aircraft.
On the other hand, the fact that U.S. troops were able to enter a contested environment and establish a forward airfield and refueling point under the noses of the Iranians — then hold it for hours while two stuck planes were destroyed and sent in replacements — could embolden it.
This could convince the administration that an airborne or amphibious operation against targets in Iran has a good chance of success.
That message would be heard loud and clear by U.S. service members flying over Iranian skies as the conflict continues, as well as those preparing for possible deployment.
Trump has also sent mixed messages about the path forward, telling reporters in a series of phone calls on Sunday that he believed a “deal” with Iran could be imminent.
If that fails, he said repeatedly on Truth Social, time is running out and his self-imposed deadline to start hitting Iran’s power plants and bridges.
If the Strait of Hormuz was not open, he posted Sunday in an expletive-laden message to the Iranian regime, they would “live in hell.” In a brief phone interview with Fox, Trump also suggested he might decide to “take” Iranian oil, without providing further details.
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A broader campaign against Iranian infrastructure and energy targets would represent an escalation, with human rights groups warning of the impact on civilians and potential war crimes.
Critics of the president are likely to see it as a sign of Trump’s frustration with the United States’ inability to guarantee freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global corridor for oil and other raw materials.
So far, the president’s supporters have rallied behind the administration and its efforts to save the crew members.
For Trump, the rescue represents a “victory” both in the eyes of the public and within the American military.
The rescue served to reinforce the administration’s willingness to put other Americans at risk in an effort to uphold the Soldier’s Creed philosophy that no American service member would be abandoned.
But some — even staunch Maga supporters — are already uneasy about the prospect of a costly, complicated war with an unclear outcome that could result in U.S. casualties.
However, the recovery of the two pilots deprived Iran of what would have been a massive propaganda victory.
The sight of U.S. service members in Iranian captivity would most likely become the top war-related story in the United States and distract from Trump’s narrative of a quick and clear victory.
Trump’s comments this weekend contrast with those he made last week, including a televised speech on April 1, in which he suggested the United States had already created the conditions necessary for other countries to engage across the Strait. “Take it, protect it, use it for yourselves,” he told his allies.
Trump had also recently suggested that he was ready to “leave” Iran even if a deal eluded him.
But he now appears to have changed course in the hope that doubling down on the threat of devastating attacks on the country’s key infrastructure could entice Tehran’s leaders to the table.
