As Roger Ebert liked to say, movies are our greatest teacher of empathy. I was reminded of this while working on these predictions last week, during the fleeting pauses of doom scrolling. Perhaps some of the films discussed below could help teach empathy to so many Americans who seem to desperately need it. I have to believe that little things like that matter, and if receiving awards gets more people to see these films, that’s a good thing.
While there are still many questions about how these categories will be filled out, we know that Thursday will be a great morning for wonderful filmmaking, including “One battle after another” “Sinners” “It was just an accident” “Marty Supreme” “Hamnet,” And “Sentimental value.” And we’ll likely have our first ever Best Picture selection with three foreign language films, which is absolutely worth celebrating. It reminds us that no matter how many people desperately try to make America more insular and less diverse, they will inevitably fail in the long run. The whole world simply has too much to offer.
Below is a list of all potential nominees in each of the major categories, ranked in order of how likely they are to secure a nomination. They are also all classified into three main levels: Locks, Contenders and Long Shots. My official predictions are the top five listed in each category (except for Best Picture, where it’s the top ten).
BEST PHOTO
Locks
- “One battle after another”
- “Hamnet”
- “Sinners”
- “Supreme Marty”
- “Sentimental value”
- “It was just an accident”
- “Frankenstein»
Competitors
- “Dream Trains”
- “The Secret Agent”
- “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
- “Bad guy: for good”
- “Weapons”
- “No other choice”
- “Cry”
Long shots
- “Jay Kelly”
- “Bugonia”
- “Sorry, baby”
- “F1”
- “Blue Moon”
- “New wave”
The top seven are a no-brainer. They’ve all dominated the film year in one way or another (usually in more than one way), from critics’ lists to festival buzz to Letterboxd to trailblazing awards. Even though “Frankenstein” seemed vulnerable due to mediocre reviews, the homemade adoration for Guillermo del Toro should easily propel it into the Best Picture race.
“Train Dreams” and “The Secret Agent” also seem to be almost stuck at this point. I was too wary to put the “Lock” label on nine out of ten nomination spots, but it would be a legitimate surprise if either missed out on a Best Picture nomination.
And then it gets interesting. There’s apparently only one spot left, and a whole bunch of films that seem unlikely to be the ones to grab it. The sequels “Avatar” and “Wicked” were both presumed to be nominated for Best Picture before their premiere (previous installments in both franchises received Best Picture nominations), but mixed reviews changed that pretty quickly. If voters want populism but don’t feel particularly inspired by these big-budget sequels, “Guns” may be an attractive option. But also, many voters won’t like horror films.
“No Other Choice” and “Sirāt” are both widely acclaimed (and “Sirāt” really outperformed in the craft category shortlists), but could a fourth international film really blow up the Best Picture field? Especially since the same distributor, Neon, is juggling campaigns for each of them? “Jay Kelly” remains a slim possibility because of its subject (a Hollywood star), but the response has been lukewarm at best. “Bugonia” also has a chance because of its Yorgos Lanthimos/Emma Stone pedigree, but the film’s ending will likely be far too strange for many voters.
So which of these unlikely possibilities will come out? In the end, I’m back where I started. “Avatar: Fire and Ash” didn’t wow critics, and that lukewarm critical response hurt the film’s showing with Golden Globe nominations, ultimately eliminating it from many Oscar predictions. But the Globe nominations (which don’t really matter in the first place) were announced before the film was released in theaters. It’s now been a month since the film was released and it’s yet another financial juggernaut. And if we assume that “Frankenstein” will land in the Best Picture race largely on the backs of craft voters, why wouldn’t we assume the same of “Avatar”? Facing suspect competition, being number one at the box office in the voting should propel “Avatar: Fire and Ash” into the final spot for Best Picture.
BEST DIRECTOR
Locks
- Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Competitors
- Jafar Panahi, “It was just an accident”
- Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
- Joachim Trier, “Sentimental value”
- Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
- Josh Safdie, “Supreme Marty”
- Guillermo del Toro, “Frankenstein”
Long shots
- Kleber Mendonça Filho, “The Secret Agent”
- Park Chan-wook, “No Other Choice”
- Clint Bentley, “Train Dreams”
- Richard Linklater, “New Wave”
- Yorgos Lanthimos, “Bugonia”
- James Cameron, “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
It may seem surprising to only call a lock one name, but there are several reasons for this. First there is simple mathematics; seven films have dominated awards season, and the race for best director can only accommodate five of them. Looking at these seven names individually, it’s easy to convince yourself that they’re all locks. But once you realize that’s impossible, the only other conclusion is that maybe none of them are locks. Furthermore, no branch of the Academy more consistently delivers the biggest shock on nomination mornings than the Directors branch. Remember when Great Gerwig was passed over for “Barbie” two years ago? Yeah. No one here is safe. Except Paul Thomas Anderson. It’s a real lock.
But everyone runs a significant risk of missing out. So where to start? Jafar Panahi seems the safest to me. Voters should be impressed by how he shot his film in secret, even on the streets, and the general tenor of what’s happening in Iran – combined with Panahi’s likely prison sentence when he returns home – should be enough to earn him a nomination.
Ryan Coogler should also, in theory, be safe, and for my money, the central musical sequence of “Sinners” is the directorial achievement of the year. But the Directorate does not have a great track record when it comes to recognizing diversity, and I can sadly imagine a nomination morning where Coogler snobbery dominates the headlines. Even still, I think he’s going in.
Chloé Zhao won best director five years ago for “Nomadland,” so theoretically we know voters are impressed by her work. But again, there are precious few examples of this branch honoring women making films about women. Joachim Trier seems safer to me, because “Sentimental Value” is about a filmmaker, and all voters in this branch will surely laugh at the stack of DVDs he gives to a child in the film – a true director’s joke if ever there was one.
Josh Safdie and Guillermo del Toro are absolutely serious contenders here, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if either – or even both – receive nominations. But in a race that is impossible to predict, these are the two that I think will be missed. Safdie’s film is perhaps a little too flashy and in itself, while Del Toro’s film is arguably the weakest of the bunch from a quality standpoint. And for all their faults, the Director Branch probably has the best taste in the Academy.
BEST ACTRESS
Locks
- Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
- Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Competitors
- Kate Hudson, “Song Sung in Blue”
- Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
- Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
- Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another”
Long shots
- Jennifer Lawrence, “Die My Love”
- Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”
- Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”
- Eva Victor, “Sorry, Baby”
- Tessa Thompson, “Hedda”
- Julia Roberts, “After the Hunt”
As the only two people with a serious chance of winning this category, Jessie Buckley and Rose Byrne are the only two locks. Behind them are four people trying to sneak into three locations.
Kate Hudson is a near lock for me. Consider what “Song Sung Blue” demands of her: She has an accent, sings herself and plays a handicap all at once And an addiction. It’s Actors Branch’s Mount Rushmore catnip. Likewise, it’s impossible to watch “Bugonia” without knowing that Emma Stone clearly went through hell for the role, which should be enough to earn her a nomination even if voters don’t like the film.
If I’m correct that last place goes to Renate Reinsve and Chase Infiniti, it’s basically a coin toss as to who you enter. I would give Reinsve a slight edge for several reasons. Clearly, she’s playing an actor, and her stage fright sequence that opens “Sentimental Value” should have real resonance with voters. And many voters may feel like she’s overdue for a nomination, having missed out on the title of “Worst Person in the World” four years ago. It’s hard to predict that Chase Infiniti will miss, but someone has to.
BEST ACTOR
Locks
- Leonardo DiCaprio, “One battle after another
- Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
- Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Competitors
- Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
- Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
- Joel Edgerton, “Train Dreams”
- Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia”
- Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
Long shots
- George Clooney, “Jay Kelly”
- Jeremy Allen White, “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere”
- Dwayne Johnson, “The Smashing Machine”
- Russell Crowe, “Nuremberg”
- Vahid Mobasseri, “It was just an accident”
- Hugh Jackman, “Song Sung in Blue”
- Lee Byung-Hun, “Not even a choice”
The Best Actor award has been my favorite race this awards season because it so joyfully upends conventional wisdom. “Jay Kelly”, “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere,” “The Smashing Machine,” and “Nuremberg” are all films that appear to have been genetically modified in a lab for the sole purpose of receiving a Best Actor nomination. But it seems almost certain that none of them will, because their films have all been disappointing. It’s a good reminder that quality really matters in this stuff, and that Oscar nominations aren’t just stamped on paper.
So who will be appointed instead? Leo and Timmy are obvious, while Wagner Moura increasingly feels like a safe bet for his subtly wonderful work in “The Secret Agent.” The way so much of this film rests on Moura’s shoulders is also why Michael B. Jordan feels potentially vulnerable to be missed here; Because as great as the acting is in “Sinners,” it’s a movie that never feels like the acting is the star of the show. But against questionable competition, I still think Jordan comes into play.
Ethan Hawke gave my favorite commercial acting performance of the year, and he’s on screen for virtually every moment of “Blue Moon.” I think Hawke has a real chance of winning the Oscar if he can land a nomination, but that’s a big if. Will enough voters watch “Blue Moon”? This is the real obstacle to Hawke’s assertion. But Sony Pictures Classics has often been very good at finding acting nominations for films with smaller profiles, and as long as they can get their film in front of voters, Hawke should have no problem being nominated.
If voters don’t watch “Blue Moon,” that last spot will likely go to Joel Edgerton or Jesse Plemons. But Edgerton’s work is so understated in “Train Dreams” that it’s easy to love the film without even thinking about her performance, while Plemons might be overshadowed by Emma Stone’s much more spectacular work in “Bugonia.” So I’m going to give voters the benefit of the doubt and predict that they will watch “Blue Moon.”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Locks
- Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
Competitors
- Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental value”
- Odessa A’zion, “Supreme Martyr”
- Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good”
- Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
- Wunmi Mosaku, “The Sinners”
- Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another”
Long shots
- Mariam Afshari, “It was just an accident”
- Hailee Steinfeld, “Sinners”
- Gwenyth Paltrow, “Supreme Marty”
- Emily Blunt, “The Smashing Machine”
I wondered if I should consider Amy Madigan a lock. But I try to use that term as literally as possible, and the Academy’s history with horror films makes me nervous. Even so, it is difficult to imagine that it is absent, in part because competition is omnipresent.
This race is dominated by pairs of actresses in the same film, with “One Battle After Another,” “Sentimental Value,” “Sinners” and “Marty Supreme” all vying for two nominees. This could play out in several ways. Splitting votes could hurt both potential candidates, or a rising tide for the film could elevate both.
“Sentimental Value” probably has the best chance of getting two nominees in this field, but Elle Fanning’s role in the film — as an actress who isn’t quite suited for a role — could work against it. Her co-star, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, should be safe, as she anchors the film’s powerful emotional climax.
Who does that leave? I bet Odessa A’zion and Ariana Grande will attend mainly because they have more to do than any of their most likely competitors. But don’t count Miriam Afshari out of “It Was Just an Accident.” She didn’t receive any precursor nominations, but if voters really like this movie, it might be difficult to keep her from their ballot boxes.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Locks
- Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
- Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
- Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
Competitors
- Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
- Paul Mescal, “Hamnet”
- Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly”
- Miles Cato, “Sinners”
- Billy Crudup, “Jay Kelly”
- Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
Long shots
- Andrew Scott, “Blue Moon”
- William H. Macy, “Train Dreams”
- Kevin O’Leary, “Supreme Marty”
Benicio del Toro, Sean Penn, and Stellan Skarsgård all have extensive footage from their films, so it’s inconceivable that any of them are missing here. If Penn hadn’t already won two Oscars, it would be a three-way race to Oscar night.
Despite a surprise win at the Critic’s Choice Awards, Jacob Elordi isn’t completely assured of a nomination as there are only two spots left and too many big names fighting for them. That said, I think he gets in mainly because I just don’t trust voters to care enough about “Jay Kelly.” Adam Sandler and Billy Crudup both have showcase scenes in the film, but that may not matter in a film that mostly seems to disappoint people. If that means last place goes to Paul Mescal or Miles Caton, I would bet on Mescal. Partly because he’s the bigger name, but mostly because he’s actually co-lead on “Hamnet,” while Caton is part of a larger ensemble (and he gets to share vocals with Delroy Lindo).
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Locks
- “One battle after another”
- “Hamnet”
- “Dream Trains”
Competitors
- “Wake Up Dead Man: A Mystery at Knives Out”
- “No other choice”
- “Bugonia”
- “Frankenstein”
Long shots
- “Song sung in blue”
- “Nuremberg”
- “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”
- “The Shattering Machine”
Sometimes you get a year where one of the two storyline categories struggles to field a full team. “One Battle After Another” and “Hamnet” are the obvious heavyweights in this category, and “Train Dreams” should be headed for a nomination since there is so little competition.
The first two “Knives Out” films both received Oscar nominations for their screenplays, so “Wake Up Dead Man” should be a presumptive nominee for that reason alone. And given the few other serious contenders, it’s almost a lock.
This lost slot machine is a real mystery. “Frankenstein” is the only other Best Picture nominee with an adapted screenplay, but most people consider the screenplay to be the weakest element of the film. “Bugonia” is also a possibility here, but if voters think the film goes off the rails in the third act, that doesn’t exactly scream “Screenplay nominee.” All of this could mean that “No Other Choice” is the only other choice.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Locks
- “Sentimental value”
- “It was just an accident”
Competitors
- “Supreme Marty”
- “Sinners”
- “Blue Moon”
- “The Secret Agent”
- “Sorry, baby”
- “Weapons”
Long shots
- “Cry”
- “Jay Kelly”
Best Original Screenplay is the most difficult major category in the rankings, and the one I’ve procrastinated writing about the most. “Sentimental Value” and “It Was Just an Accident” both rely on the power of their innovative story construction, so those are the two obvious threats to winning here. From there, it’s a real guessing game, with six legitimate contenders for the three remaining spots. Drawing three names out of a hat seems just as potentially effective as trying to guess them, but that’s not how we do it.
The film that appeals to me the most as a likely candidate is “Blue Moon”, as it is the most obvious “writer’s film” of the bunch. It’s not just about a writer, but also about that unique feeling of replaceability that sparks existential fears in all writers. This is someone with a gift for words, but whose flaws in every other area of life conspired to destroy him. This should be a safe candidate if voters watch it. That makes prediction a risk when it comes up against three likely Best Picture nominees.
“Sorry, Baby” seems like a classic example of a movie known for its script but way too cool for the rest of the Academy. But here’s the thing: “Marty Supreme” and “Sinners” Also These look like classic examples of this kind of film, it’s just that now the Academy has much better taste, and it’s actually pretty cool to recognize these films elsewhere. And then there’s “The Secret Agent”, which also feels like that kind of film, and “Weapons” which creates an incredible circular tapestry with its storyline, skillfully moving through time and POV.
Again, three of these six candidates could be nominated. So, in the absence of better reasoning, I’ll pick the two films that I’m absolutely certain will get Best Picture nominations (“Marty Supreme” and “Sinners”) and the film that most feels like a dog whistle to writers (“Blue Moon”).
