I know we are all at our limits with the technological projects around which the world’s financial powers are rapidly coalescing as fundamental and beneficial resources for civilization dwindle. I know we don’t have enough space to listen to all the promises of utopian computing advances that, in practice, require comical amounts of human intervention. That after the collapse of all cryptocurrencies, NFTs, AI, video pivots and pets.com, the last thing we need is to bet more on speculative futuristic nonsense. But listen to me: what if we fucked with the moon?
This week, Deutsche Bank said it was focusing its attention on the “moon economy.” Earth’s lonely little celestial satellite, greeting us every night, changing the tides and summoning werewolves. Although it was the grand prize of the 1960s space race, it hasn’t really taken center stage in the human imagination for generations. As much as we love our big, floating space rock, it has neither the potential nor the appeal of Mars, our closest doppelganger. The richest among us are starting to think differently.
Deutsche Bank is focusing on Intuitive Machines, a Houston-based company that develops technologies for lunar exploration. They’re poised for the windfall of any moon-related interest, and Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu says the lunar economy “may have just passed a key inflection point.” That is, we are preparing for a fight.
Through 2025, the White House has shown renewed interest in lunar missions. Under the Artemis program, the United States seeks to beat China to the Moon in military infrastructure and espionage credentials. This space race kicked off a second, simultaneous race among billionaires. Jeff Bezos announced that Blue Origin aims to develop lunar landers for the program. This plays into the tension between NASA and SpaceX, whose progress on their contract has been slow.
Unable to sit still, Elon Musk, who previously called the Moon a “distraction,” said he was shifting SpaceX’s focus toward building a “self-growing city” there. This is a watershed moment for SpaceX, a company whose sole mission is to colonize Mars. “We can potentially get there in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take more than 20 years,” Musk said.
Clearly, government contracts are a financial boon in themselves. Much of Musk’s fortune comes from federal deals. But what is the long-term economic benefit of relaxing on the Moon? Don’t you mind establishing the first space city? When it comes to space campaigns, it’s much easier to launch a body into low gravity than to struggle to escape Earth’s orbit and the space debris barrier (although new complications will surely arise). You probably wouldn’t be surprised to learn that this lunar situation is related to the current AI situation.
You’ve probably noticed that AI, for all its promises, is incredibly expensive. Consumer technology is in disarray as businesses gain first access to microchips. Building data centers is the toothpick that supports the U.S. economy. The use of electricity and water cooling is comprehensive for local infrastructure. Setting up camp on the moon would solve… some of this. If you think this sounds risky and untested, you’re right. Much like current AI projects, a vague promise is enough to bet the house.
The original space race ended in victory, something our current futurists are desperate to achieve. This is the result of collaborations between technicians, physicists and experts from all disciplines. It was about proving that the capitalist West was bigger than the USSR and developing new rockets along the way, but it was nonetheless necessary to put that glory ahead of short-term gains. The theme of the last decade has been “why we can’t have nice things.” There are strong use cases for blockchain, language learning models, and moon bases. But instead of researching and refining how this technology can ensure a better future for all, we are subjected to unnecessary trinkets at the expense of breathable air. Our survival in this century increasingly depends on farcical futurists, addicted to singular persuasive visions that don’t sit well with reality.