As his tenure in the governor’s office draws to a close, Brian Kemp asked Georgia voters for “one more thing.”
“Send Derek Dooley to the United States Senate,” the Republican implored viewers in a new television commercial from his PAC that hit the airwaves this week, yet another sign that Kemp is putting all his chips behind his preferred candidate ahead of Tuesday’s GOP Senate primary.
The question for Kemp is whether Dooley, a former college football coach and political novice, is a risky bet — or whether he’s emphasizing his influence in one of the nation’s most closely divided swing states, and perhaps beyond.
“If Dooley can pull this off, it shows that Kemp is ready to leave his own mark not only on the Republican Party of Georgia, but also on the national Republican Party,” said Jay Morgan, former executive director of the Republican Party of Georgia.
Morgan said he has “never seen a governor put so much of his personal capital on the line” in his 30 years working in Georgia politics. But in doing so, Kemp opens himself up to criticism and second-guessing as the Republican Party attempts to break a Senate losing streak in a state it dominated for years.
“This one, the governor completely owns it,” Morgan said.
Dooley battled with GOP Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter in the primary to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, and neither Republican is expected to win a majority of the primary votes Tuesday. That would push the race to a runoff on June 16 between the top two receiving votes.
Collins and Carter portray themselves as staunch allies of President Donald Trump. Although Dooley also emphasized that he supports Trump, he presented himself as a political outsider, saying that Carter and Collins have backgrounds that could be used against them in November. Collins also faces an ongoing ethics investigation to investigate whether he misused congressional funds, allegations Collins called “false.”
“I’m confident it’s going to take a political outsider to beat Jon Ossoff in this race,” Kemp said at a recent campaign event with Dooley in Habersham.
Kemp has been behind Dooley since he decided not to run for Senate himself. The two-term governor is the biggest power broker to back in the primary, along with Trump stay away so far.
Everything for DooleyKemp is close personally with the famous Dooley family. Dooley’s father, Vince, was a legendary football coach at the University of Georgia, while Derek Dooley was the head coach at the University of Tennessee.
Dooley’s performance in this primary — and potentially in November — could be an early stress test for Kemp’s political functioning and his influence over GOP voters as he weighs his next steps, with term limits barring Kemp from running for governor again.
Some Georgia Republicans expect Kemp to at least consider a run for president in 2028, given his resume as a conservative governor of a battleground state. While several Georgia Republican strategists said Dooley’s performance would not affect Kemp’s reputation nationally, one suggested failure could make it difficult for Kemp to make his case to presidential primary voters.
“If he can’t get a candidate across the finish line in his own state, I think it’s going to be very difficult for him to go to Iowa and get people to fund this proof of concept,” said the strategist, who is not involved in the Senate race.
Kemp, for his part, said in a recent Politico interview that he is “focused on 2026” and that he refused to answer questions about a possible presidential campaign. A Kemp adviser told NBC News that Kemp is “1,000 percent” focused on 2026 and “not thinking about legacy right now.”
Kemp and his wife, Marty, have been constant companions during Dooley’s campaign, joining him for every stop of his statewide tour, including the home stretch that began Wednesday. Kemp also helped Dooley behind the scenes, calling donors to lend support, according to a Kemp adviser.
Dooley described the governor as a “great mentor.”
“When you’re a political outsider and you don’t have any political experience, the one thing I’ve learned is that you either have to have someone who supports you and has a little bit of political history to help you get off the ground, or you have to have a lot of money, right?” Dooley said in a telephone interview. “It’s one or the other, and I don’t have a lot of money.”
Dooley said Kemp connected him with supporters, noting, “That was a big boost for me early on, to get in front of people who have influence, it got me a meeting and allowed me to go sell myself. And he’s stuck with me ever since.”
Dooley noted that he still had to make his own case.
“I have to go sell myself, my vision and how I’m going to represent the state, because Governor Kemp is not on the ballot,” Dooley said.
Kemp’s PAC, Hardworking Americans Inc., also participated, spending more than $3 million on pro-Dooley text messages and ads, according to campaign finance reports. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that Kemp’s decision to support Dooley also winnowed the primary field, prompting a candidate to end his campaign.
“People have asked us, why are you so committed to this race? Why are you not only supporting Derek Dooley, but why are you working hard for him?” Kemp told the crowd at Habersham’s cafe.
“That’s really one of the reasons. It’s because I want to win back our Senate seat,” Kemp said.
Ossoff and Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock won their races for the first time in the 2021 runoffs, and Warnock won again in 2022, defeating Trump-backed Herschel Walker. Republicans view Ossoff as a prime target as they defend their Senate majority this year, but Ossoff has stockpiled a whopping $32 million as he prepares for the race.
Several Georgia Republicans were concerned about their prospects in November, especially as Trump’s approval ratings have plummeted and gas prices have soared due to the war in Iran. A Republican Party strategist fatalistically compared the party’s eventual nominee to a “sacrificial lamb.” Others were more optimistic but acknowledged that the race would be very difficult for the Republicans.
Worse still, the Republican Party primaries are expected to drag on until the June runoffs, further depleting the party’s resources.
Trump loomsTrump could shake up the race if he decides to support one candidate in the runoff, and all three candidates are battling to secure Trump’s support.
Collins told NBC News at a recent event in Dahlonega that Trump has “this impeccable ability to inject himself into the race and support people at the right time. Bottom line. I look forward to having his support. I would love to have his support.”
Carter said in an interview Thursday that he had sought Trump’s support, noting: “If he does indeed decide to get involved, we are very confident that he will support us, and we hope that he will.” »
Dooley said he wanted to win Trump’s support, and he met with the president in August. In his announcementsDooley says he will “work with President Trump but for you.”
But Kemp has clashed with Trump, notably after Trump’s defeat in the 2020 presidential election, when the president falsely claimed the Georgia election was stolen. Kemp fought back vehemently, and Trump responded by attempting to oust the governor in 2022, supporting former Sen. David Perdue in the primary. Kemp won the Republican nomination in a landslide, beating Perdue by 52 points.
Dooley walked the line between Kemp and Trump’s opposing views on the 2020 election, twice refusing to directly say whether he agreed with Kemp that the election was not stolen.
“We all know there were a lot of problems in 2020,” Dooley said, emphasizing that he wants to stay focused on winning in 2026.
Trump and Kemp have largely moved on since their post-2020 clashes, and two Kemp advisers said the governor and president speak “often.”
The battle with Trump hasn’t hurt Kemp’s standing with Georgia Republicans, either. A recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution Poll found that 85% of likely GOP primary voters approved of Kemp as governor, and 55% strongly approved.
Debbie Dooley — a Tea Party activist who is not related to the Senate candidate but is supporting him in Tuesday’s primary — said some Trump supporters in Georgia are “hesitant” to oppose Kemp in the past. Dooley herself organized censure resolutions against Kemp after the 2020 election and supported Perdue in 2022.
“They realize [Kemp] can help us take back that Senate seat from Ossoff and his record of success in passing a conservative agenda — I mean, he stood firm when even Donald Trump criticized him. And I think he gained a lot of respect [for] that,” she said.
Derek Dooley remained close to Kemp, refusing to name any Kemp policy he disagreed with, saying he “wasn’t going to pass a bill on everything.” He said generally that he considers Kemp’s leadership “truly inspirational,” adding that Kemp “has the ability to respect all parties, work with all parties and get results.”
In a nod to Kemp’s enduring popularity among GOP voters, neither Collins nor Carter have attempted to use Kemp’s clashes with the president to drive a wedge between Dooley and Trump, as they all seek votes from loyal Trump supporters.
Carter said he considered Kemp a friend and respected Kemp’s decision to support “a childhood friend.”
“He’s a very popular governor. He’s done a great job. And once we’re in the runoff and Derek Dooley isn’t, I hope he considers supporting us,” Carter said.
“Governor Kemp has done a good job,” Collins told NBC News at the recent campaign event. “And that’s all I’ll say at the end of the day: I look forward to having Governor Kemp’s support in this race as well, once we get past the primaries.”
Dooley, meanwhile, said Kemp’s endorsement would allow him to go no further.
“Endorsing Governor Kemp is not going to win me the election,” Dooley said. “I have to go out and win the money of every voter in Georgia, and that’s what I did at the c bear of the last nine months.”
