Leinster vs Lions URC quarter-final preview: team news, stats and betting angle
James Lowe is set to make his 100th Leinster appearance as Leo Cullen names his squad for Saturday night’s BKT United Rugby Championship quarter-final against Fidelity SecureDrive Lions at the Aviva Stadium.
The game starts at 8 p.m. and will be broadcast live on TG4 And Premier Sports 1.
Caelan Doris has captained Leinster since number eight, with six changes to the matchday squad since the Investec Champions Cup final. Lowe returns to the side after equaling Shane Horgan’s all-time Leinster try record. 69 trials during his last outing.
Great topic of discussion
Wow.
Ciarán Frawley being left out of the 23 is a very strange decision unless there is an injury issue. Someone at Leinster might end up regretting not giving them a good run at 10 over the last couple of years.
The Lions should be a lot more confident after seeing this starting Leinster team. Leinster are still brimming with quality, but with Sam Prendergast and Luke McGrath starting at half-back, and Frawley not involved, there is certainly a betting angle here.
The handicap is Lions +15, and that seems huge based on this team’s news.
Recent URC form
Leinster Last Six URC Matches
- Glasgow Warriors 38-17 Leinster
- Leinster 36-19 Scarlets
- Ulster 21-29 Leinster
- Benetton 29-26 Leinster
- Leinster 31-7 Lions
- Leinster 68-14 Ospreys
Last six Lions URC games
- Lions 54-17 Edinburgh
- Lions 42-26 Dragons
- Lions 54-12 Glasgow Warriors
- Lions 33-21 Connacht
- Leinster 31-7 Lions
- Munster 24-17 Lions
The Lions have lost their last two matches in Ireland, but before that they had a very impressive run, including big wins at home against Glasgow, Connacht, Edinburgh and the Dragons.
Face to face
- February 25, 2022: Leinster 21-13 Lions
- April 15, 2023: Lions 36-39 Leinster
- April 20, 2024: Lions 44-12 Leinster
- October 26, 2024: Leinster 24-6 Lions
- May 9, 2026: Leinster 31-7 Lions
Leinster have won four of the five URC meetings between the teams, with the Lions’ only victory coming in Johannesburg in April 2024.
Key match statistics
- This is Leinster’s eleventh consecutive appearance in the URC play-offs.
- Leinster have won all five URC quarter-finals they have played in, with all five coming in Dublin.
- Leinster’s only defeat in their last five URC matches came against Benetton.
- The Lions reached the URC play-offs for the first time.
- The Lions’ last eight URC matches were all won by the home team on the day.
- The Lions’ only victory in ten visits to Ireland was a 38-14 win over Connacht in March 2024.
- The only away victory in this match was against Leinster 39-36 in Johannesburg in April 2023.
Top scorers this season
Leinster
- Top try scorer: Joshua Kenny – 9 tries
- Scott Penny – 5 essays
- Tommy O’Brien – 5 tries
- Top points scorer: Harry Byrne – 67 points
- Sam Prendergast – 56 points
- Joshua Kenny – 45 points
- Ciaran Frawley – 27 points
Lions
- Top try scorer: Ruan Venter – 7 tries
- Henco van Wyk – 6 trials
- Francke Horn – 5 attempts
- Blessed are the horses – 5 essays
- Top points scorer: Chris Smith – 154 points
- Ruan Venter – 35 points
- Henco van Wyk – 30 points
Leinster Rugby starting XV
1. A. Porter
2. D.Sheehan
3. T.Furlong
4. J. McCarthy
5. J.Ryan
6. Mr. Deegan
7. S. Penny
8. C. Doris (C)
9. L. McGrath
10. S. Prendergast
11. J. Lowe
12. J.Osborne
13. R.John
14. J. O’Brien
15. H.Keenan
Substitutes
16. G. McCarthy
17. A. Usanov
18. T. Clarkson
19. D. Eating
20. J. van der Flier
21. J. Gibson Park
22. H.Byrne
23. R.Henshaw
Match Details
Fixing: Leinster Rugby v Fidelity SecureDrive Lions
Competition: BKT United Rugby Championship Quarter-Final
Place: Aviva Stadium
To start up: Saturday, 8 p.m.
TV: TG4 and Premier Sports 1
Arbitrator: Sam Grove-White
Verdict
Leinster should still win this match. Their pack is stacked, Doris is team captain, Lowe returns for a historic 100th appearance and the bench contains some serious international quality in Josh van der Flier, Jamison Gibson-Park, Harry Byrne and Robbie Henshaw.
However, this doesn’t look like a full-throttle Leinster selection. Frawley misses the eyebrow, and the Lions have enough power and offensive threat to stay within range if they start well.
Prediction: Leinster wins, but Lions +15 seems a big handicap.
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