A woman walks past a digital screen displaying information about peace talks between the United States and Iran, along a road in Islamabad, April 10, 2026.
Farooq Naeem | Afp | Getty Images
Delegates from the United States and Iran are expected to begin negotiations in Pakistan on Saturday, as major disagreements threaten to undermine the fragile two-week ceasefire.
Tehran has already accused Israel of violating the terms of the ceasefire and endangering negotiations, as the IDF continues to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon, killing more than 300 people on Wednesday.
Although Lebanon was mentioned in the initial ceasefire framework drafted by Pakistan, the United States and Israel maintain that it was not included in the agreement.
This major difference of opinion threatens to torpedo the negotiations. Peace in Lebanon is not clearly included in the US 15-point plan, but it is explicitly mentioned in the Iranian 10-point plan.
But Lebanon is not the only point of friction between the two camps. Differences also remain over who will control the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the future of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities.
The war in Lebanon continues Announcing the ceasefire on Wednesday, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced on X that fighting would stop across the region, including in Lebanon.
Israel was quick to dispute the claim, insisting the reprieve would not include its northern neighbor, carrying out its heaviest bombardment of the country in decades on Wednesday.
Iran responded by warning of further attacks, writing on
“The Israeli government is not in favor of a rapprochement between the United States and Iran, and the war in Lebanon is one of Netanyahu’s main assets to destabilize any peace effort,” Maziyar Ghiabi, director of Persian studies at the University of Exeter, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe on Friday.
To try to prevent further attacks on Beirut, the Lebanese government reiterated its call to begin direct negotiations with Israel, an offer that Netanyahu has since accepted.
The Lebanese front is likely to feature in discussions in Islamabad, as its inclusion in ending regional-wide fighting remains an open question.
Control of Hormuz The question of who controls the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for oil and gas, remains unresolved.
Iran wants to retain full control of the passage and charge fees to ships transiting the Persian Gulf, using the revenue to finance the country’s reconstruction.
It requires shipping companies to pay tolls in cryptocurrency in exchange for safe transit, the Financial Times reported Wednesday morning.
Trump, for his part, said the ceasefire was contingent on the “FULL, IMMEDIATE and SECURE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz,” in an article published Tuesday.
The possibility of Iran imposing hefty tolls on ships is a key sticking point, a marine insurance executive, who did not want to be named officially, told CNBC.
Such a move would upend decades of free access to the strait as an international waterway, forcing shipowners to pay high fees or avoid the route altogether.
Control of the strait is Iran’s “biggest” lever, Amrita Sen, founder of the business intelligence platform Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s “Access Middle East” on Thursday.
“I don’t think the toll is something that will be accepted by the GCC, by Oman or by any of its neighbors,” she said. “It’s very, very hard to swallow, but generally speaking, it’s a lever that I don’t see Iran giving up.”
On nuclear enrichment Another stumbling block is the fate of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.
Iran’s nuclear chief said Thursday that the country’s enemies’ demands for zero enrichment were “wishful thinking.”
The Islamic Republic’s 10-point peace proposal includes the “right to enrich,” a demand that was quickly rejected by Vice President JD Vance.
Although Iran has committed to ending its nuclear program, it is “unlikely” to abandon its stockpile of enriched uranium, according to Sanam Vakil, MENA director at Chatham House.
“If President Trump gets a guarantee that Iran will allow inspectors back into its nuclear facilities, or what’s left of them, and that Iran will mix that enriched uranium, those will be victories,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.
“A verifiable and controlled nuclear agreement is ultimately something that [Trump] can sell to the American people. »
Ultimately, disagreement over key elements of the ceasefire agreement could prove shaky ground on which to conduct negotiations toward a long-term settlement to the conflict.
