“We are too close to the debris”: how SpaceX rockets are putting passenger planes at risk

When SpaceX CEO Elon Musk chose a remote Texas outpost on the Gulf Coast to develop his company’s ambitious Starship, he put the 400-foot rocket on a collision course with the commercial airline industry.

Every time SpaceX conducted a test of Starship and its booster, nicknamed Super Heavy, the megarocket’s flight path took it over busy Caribbean airspace before reaching the relative safety of the open Atlantic Ocean. The company planned up to five such launches per year to perfect the craft, a version of which is supposed to one day land on the moon.

The FAA, which also oversees commercial space launches, predicted that the impact on the national airspace would be “minor or minimal,” similar to a weather event, under the agency’s approval for 2022. No airports would be forced to close and no aircraft would be denied access for “an extended period of time.”

But the reality is very different. Last year, three of five Starship launches exploded at unexpected points in their flight path, twice raining flaming debris onto congested commercial airways and disrupting flights. And although no planes collided with rocket parts, the pilots were forced to run to safety.

A ProPublica investigation, based on agency documents, interviews with pilots and passengers, air traffic control recordings and photos and videos of the events, found that by allowing SpaceX to test its experimental rocket over busy airspace, the FAA accepted the inherent risk that the rocket could put the plane’s passengers in danger.

And once the rocket failed spectacularly and that risk became real, neither the FAA nor Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy sought to revoke or suspend Starship’s launch license, a move that is allowed when “necessary to protect public health and safety.” Instead, the FAA allowed SpaceX to test even more prototypes in the same airspace, adding stress to the air traffic control system already strained with every launch.

The first two Starship explosions last year forced the FAA to issue real-time calls on where to clear airspace and for how long. Such emergency closures have occurred with little or no warning, ProPublica found, forcing pilots to suddenly upend their flight plans and change course in busy airspace to avoid falling debris. In one case, a plane with 283 people on board ran out of fuel, prompting its pilot to declare an emergency and drive through a designated debris zone to reach an airport.

The world’s largest pilots union told the FAA in October that such events call into question whether “an appropriate process” is in place to respond to unexpected rocket accidents.

“There is a high risk that debris could strike an aircraft, causing devastating losses to the aircraft, flight crew and passengers,” wrote Steve Jangelis, pilot and president of aviation safety.

The FAA said in response to questions that it “limits the number of aircraft exposed to hazards, making the likelihood of a catastrophic event extremely unlikely.”

However, for the public and the press, it was difficult to assess this danger. In fact, almost a year after last January’s explosion, it’s still unclear how close the Starship wreckage came to the planes. SpaceX estimated where the debris fell after each incident and reported that information to the federal government. But the company has not responded to ProPublica’s requests for that data, and federal agencies that have viewed it, including the FAA, have not released it. The agency told us it is not aware of any other publicly available data on the spacecraft debris.

In his public remarks, Musk downplayed the risk posed by Starship. To caption a video of burning debris in January, he wrote: “Fun is guaranteed!” and, after the March explosion, he posted: “Rockets are hard.” The company was more measured, saying it was learning from its mistakes, which “helps us improve Starship’s reliability.”

For planes traveling at high speed, the margin for error is small. Research shows that as little as 300 grams of debris — or two-thirds of a pound — “could catastrophically destroy a plane,” said Aaron Boley, a professor at the University of British Columbia who has studied the danger space objects pose to planes. Photographs of Starship parts washed up on beaches show objects much larger than that, including large intact reservoirs.

“It doesn’t really take a lot of material to cause a major problem to an airplane,” Boley said.

In response to growing concern over the rocket’s repeated failures, the FAA expanded airspace closures before launch and offered pilots better warning of potential hot spots. The agency said it also asked SpaceX to conduct incident investigations and “implement numerous corrective measures to improve public safety.” An FAA spokesperson referred ProPublica’s questions about these corrective measures to SpaceX, which did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

Experts say the FAA’s changing approach reveals a disturbing truth about aviation safety as private companies increasingly seek to use the skies as a laboratory: Regulators are learning as they go.

During last year’s Starship launches, the FAA was under pressure to fulfill a dual mandate: regulating and promoting the commercial space industry while ensuring the safety of the flying public, ProPublica found. In his October letter, Jangelis called the arrangement a “direct conflict of interest.”

In an interview, Kelvin Coleman, who led the FAA’s commercial space office during the launches, said his office determined that the risk from these incidents “was within the acceptable limits of our regulations.”

But, he said, “as more and more launches start to take place, I think we need to look very closely at the tools that we have and how to better integrate space launches into airspace.”

“We must protect the airspace”

On January 16, 2025, as SpaceX prepared to launch Starship 7 from Boca Chica, Texas, the government had to consider the possibility that the giant rocket would break apart unexpectedly.

Using debris modeling and simulations, the U.S. Space Force, the branch of the military that handles the nation’s space interests, helped the FAA draw the theoretical contours of “debris response zones” — no-fly zones that could be activated if spacecraft exploded.

With these plans in place, Starship Flight 7 took off at 5:37 p.m. EST. About seven minutes later, he achieved a remarkable feat: His reusable booster rocket separated, turned around and returned to Earth, where giant mechanical arms caught it to the applause of SpaceX employees.

But about 90 seconds later, as the Starship’s upper stage continued to rise, SpaceX lost contact with it. The device caught fire and exploded well above the Earth’s surface.

Air traffic control communications came alive with surprised pilots who saw the accident, some of whom took photos and filmed trails of flames in the sky:

Another controller warned another pilot of the presence of debris in the area:

Two FAA safety inspectors were in Boca Chica to observe the launch at SpaceX’s mission control center, said Coleman, who for Flight 7 was on his laptop in Washington, D.C., to receive updates.

As the wreckage descended rapidly toward aircraft flight paths over the Caribbean, the FAA activated a no-fly zone based on the vehicle’s last known position and pre-launch calculations. Air traffic controllers warned pilots to avoid the area, which stretched hundreds of miles across a ribbon of ocean roughly from the Bahamas to east of St. Maarten, covering parts of populated islands including all of Turks and Caicos. Although the United States controls some of the region’s airspace, it relies on cooperation from other countries when recommending a closure.

The FAA also cordoned off a triangular area south of Key West.

When a pilot asked when planes could pass through the area, a controller replied:

There were at least 11 planes in the closed airspace when the Starship exploded, and flight tracking data shows they scrambled out of the way, clearing the area within 15 minutes. Such maneuvers are not without risk. “If many planes suddenly have to change their route plans,” Boley said, “then that could cause additional strain” on an already strained air traffic control system, “which can lead to errors.”

But that was not the end of the disruption. The FAA kept the Debris Response Area, or DRA, active for an additional 71 minutes, leaving some flights in a holding pattern over the Caribbean. Several began to run out of fuel and some informed air traffic controllers that they needed to land.

“We don’t have enough fuel to wait,” said an Iberia airline pilot who was en route from Madrid with 283 people on board.

The controller warned him that if he crossed the closed airspace, it would be at his own risk:

The plane landed safely in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Iberia did not respond to requests for comment, but in statements to ProPublica, other airlines downplayed the fallout from the launch. Delta, for example, said the incident “had minimal impact on our operations and no damage to the aircraft.” “The company’s safety management system and our safety culture help us address potential issues and reinforce that air travel remains the safest form of transportation in the world,” a spokesperson said.

After the incident, some pilots raised concerns with the FAA, which was also considering a request of SpaceX aiming to increase the number of annual Starship launches from five to 25.

“The explosion of the Space “I do not support increased rocket launches by Space

Kriese could not be reached for comment.

The Air Line Pilots Association urged the FAA to suspend testing of the Starship until the root cause of the failure can be investigated and corrected. A letter from the group, which represents more than 80,000 pilots flying for 43 airlines, said crews traveling in the Caribbean did not know where planes might be threatened by rocket debris before the explosion.

“At this point, it is far too late for crews flying near the rocket’s operating location to be able to make a decision for the flight to proceed safely,” wrote Jangelis, a pilot and president of aviation safety for the group. The explosion, he said, “raises additional concerns about whether the FAA is ensuring adequate separation between space operations and airline flights.”

In response, the FAA said it would “review existing processes and determine whether additional steps can be taken to improve flight crew situational awareness prior to launch.”

According to FAA documents, the explosion propelled fragments of spacecraft over an area almost as large as New Jersey. Debris landed on beaches and roads in the Turks and Caicos Islands. He also damaged a car. No one was hurt.

Three months later, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which was assessing potential impacts on marine life, sent the FAA a report containing a map showing where debris from an explosion might fall during future spacecraft failures. The estimate, which incorporated SpaceX’s own data from the Starship 7 incident, described an area more than three times the size of the airspace closed by the FAA.

In a statement, an FAA spokesperson said the NOAA map was “intended to cover multiple potential operations,” while the FAA safety analysis is for “a single actual launch.” A NOAA spokesperson said the map reflects “the general area where accidents could occur” and is not directly comparable to FAA no-fly zones.

Still, Moriba Jah, a professor of aerospace engineering at the University of Texas, said the illustration suggested that no-fly zones activated by the FAA may not fully reflect the distance and width of debris that spreads after a rocket breaks up. According to him, current predictive science “includes significant uncertainty”.

At an industry conference weeks after the January explosion, Shana Diez, a SpaceX executive, acknowledged the FAA’s challenges in overseeing commercial launches.

“The biggest thing we would really like to work with them on in the future is to improve their real-time knowledge of where the launchers are and where debris from the launchers might end up,” she said.

“We are too close to the debris”

On February 26 of last year, while the investigation into Starship Flight 7 was still open, the FAA cleared flight 8 to continuesaying it “determined that SpaceX met all safety, environmental and other licensing requirements.”

The action was authorized under a practice that began under the first Trump administration, known as the “accelerated return to flight,” which allowed commercial space companies to restart even before the investigation into an earlier problematic flight was complete, provided safety systems were functioning properly.

Coleman, who accepted a voluntary separation offer last year, said that before granting approval, the FAA confirmed that “safety-critical systems,” such as the rocket’s ability to self-destruct if it veered off course, were operating as designed during Flight 7.

By March 6, SpaceX was ready to restart. This time, the FAA warned the pilots one hour and 40 minutes before takeoff.

“In the event of a space launch vehicle accident that generates debris, it is possible for debris to fall into an area,” the advisory said, again listing coordinates for two areas in the Gulf and Caribbean.

The FAA said a pre-launch safety analysis, which includes planning for potential debris, “incorporates lessons learned from previous flights.” The area described in the agency’s Caribbean advisory was wider and longer than the previous one, while the area over the Gulf was significantly expanded.

Flight 8 launched at 6:30 p.m. EST and its booster returned to the launch pad as planned. But a little more than eight minutes into the flight, some of the Starship’s engines shut down. The craft went into a spin and about 90 seconds later, SpaceX lost contact with it and it exploded.

The FAA activated the no-fly zones less than two minutes later, using the same coordinates they had released before launch.

Even with the advance warning, data shows that at least five planes were in the debris areas at the time of the explosion, and they all cleared the airspace within minutes.

A pilot on one of those planes, Frontier Flight 081, told passengers they could see the rocket explode through the right-side windows. Dane Siler and Mariah Davenport, returning home to the Midwest from a vacation in the Dominican Republic, raised the window shade and saw debris blazing into the sky, with one spot brighter than the others.

“It literally looked like the sun was coming up,” Siler told ProPublica. “It was super bright.”

They and other passengers shot videos, marveling at what looked like fireworks, the couple said. The fragments of the ship appeared to be taller than the plane, several kilometers away. But shortly after, the pilot announced, “I’m sorry to tell you that we have to turn around because we are too close to the debris,” Siler said.

Frontier did not respond to requests for comment.

The FAA lifted restrictions on planes flying over the debris zone about 30 minutes after the Starship explosion, much earlier than in January. The agency said the Space Force “informed the FAA that all debris had fallen approximately 30 minutes after the Starship Flight 8 anomaly.”

But in response to questions from ProPublica, the Space Force acknowledged that it had not tracked the debris in real time. Instead, he said “computer modeling,” along with other scientific measures, allowed the agency to “effectively predict and mitigate risks.” The FAA said “the aircraft was not at risk” in the aftermath of Flight 8.

Experts told ProPublica that the science behind such modeling is far from established, and the government’s ability to anticipate how debris will behave after an explosion like Starship’s is limited. “You won’t find anyone who can answer this question precisely,” said John Crassidis, a professor of aerospace engineering at the University at Buffalo. “At best, you have an educated guess. At worst, it’s just a shot.”

Where the pieces fall — and how long they take to land — depends on many factors, including atmospheric winds and the size, shape and type of material involved, experts said.

During the disbandment of Flight 7, the FAA kept the airspace closed for approximately 86 minutes. However, Diez, the SpaceX executive, told industry conference attendees that in fact it took “hours” for all the debris to reach the ground. The FAA, SpaceX and Diez did not respond to follow-up questions about his remarks.

It’s unclear how accurate the FAA’s debris projections were for the March explosion. The agency acknowledged that debris fell in the Bahamas, but it did not provide ProPublica with the exact location, making it impossible to determine whether the wreckage landed where the FAA expected. While some of the country’s islands were within the designated debris zone, most were not. Calls and emails to Bahamas officials were not returned.

The FAA said there were no injuries or serious property damage.

FAA gives green light to more launches

In May, after months of Musk’s Department of Government Effectiveness cutting spending and laying off employees at federal agencies across Washington, the FAA granted SpaceXcalls for exponentially increasing the number of Starship launches from Texas.

Starship is essential to “providing greater access to space and enabling cost-effective delivery of goods and people to the Moon and Mars,” the FAA found. The agency said it would ensure that parties involved “take steps to ensure safe, efficient, and equitable use” of the nation’s airspace.

The United States is in a race to beat China to the lunar surface — a priority set by the first Trump administration and continued under President Joe Biden. Supporters say the Moon can be mined for resources such as water and rare earth metals, and can offer a place to test new technologies. It could also serve as a springboard to more distant destinations, allowing Musk to achieve his long-held goal: getting humans to Mars.

Trump promised n January that the United States would “pursue our manifest destiny in the stars, by sending American astronauts to plant the Star-Spangled Banner on the planet Mars.”

But with experimental launches like Starship’s, Jangelis said, the FAA should be “as conservative as possible” in managing the airspace below it.

“We expect the FAA to ensure that our planes and our passengers remain safe,” he said. “There needs to be a balance between the for-profit space sector and for-profit airlines and commerce. »

A more conservative approach

In mid-May, British officials sent a letter to their American counterparts, requesting that SpaceX and the FAA change the Starship’s flight path or take other precautions because they were concerned about the risk of disaster. security of their Caribbean territories.

The next day, the FAA announced in a press release that it had approved the Starship’s next launch, pending either the agency’s closure of the Flight 8 investigation or the granting of a “return to flight” ruling.

A week later, while the investigation into Flight 8 was still open, the agency said SpaceX had “satisfactorily resolved” the causes of the accident. The FAA did not specify what those causes were at the time, but said it would verify that the company had implemented all necessary “corrective measures.”

This time, the FAA has been more aggressive on aviation safety.

The agency preemptively closed a large area of ​​airspace extending 1,600 nautical miles from the launch site, across the Gulf of Mexico and part of the Caribbean. The FAA said 175 or more flights could be affected and advised Providenciales International Airport in Turks and Caicos to close during the launch.

The agency said The move was driven in part by an “updated flight safety analysis” and SpaceX’s decision to reuse a previously launched Super Heavy booster – something the company had never tried before. The agency also said it was “in contact and close collaboration with the United Kingdom, Turks and Caicos Islands, Bahamas, Mexico and Cuba.”

Coleman told ProPublica that concerns from Caribbean countries, along with Starship’s previous failures, helped convince the FAA to close more airspace ahead of Flight 9.

On May 27, the craft took off at 7:36 p.m. EDT, an hour later than in March and two hours later than in January. The FAA said it requires the launch window to be scheduled during “off-peak transit periods.”

This mission also ended in failure.

Starship’s Super Heavy booster exploded over the Gulf of Mexico, where it was supposed to have performed what is known as a “hard ditching.”

In response, the FAA again activated an emergency no-fly zone. Most planes had already been diverted around the closed airspace, but the agency said it diverted one plane and placed another in a holding pattern for 24 minutes. The FAA did not provide additional details about the flights.

According to the agency, no debris fell outside the danger zone where the FAA had closed the airspace. Parts of the booster ended up running aground on The beaches of Mexico.

The Starship’s upper stage reached the highest planned point on its flight path, but went into a spin on the way down, exploding over the Indian Ocean.

The road ahead

SpaceX launched Starship again in August and October. Unlike previous flights, both were uneventful and the company said it was focused on the next generation of Starship to provide “service to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond.”

But about a week later, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said he would open SpaceX’s multibillion-dollar contract for a crewed lunar lander to competing companies. SpaceX is “an incredible company,” he said on CNBC. “The problem is, they’re late.”

Musk pushed back, saying about “SpaceX is growing like lightning compared to the rest of the space industry.” He insulted Duffy by calling him a “Dummy Sean” And adage “The person The head of America’s space program can’t have a double-digit IQ.

The Department of Transportation did not respond to a request for comment or make Duffy available.

In an article published online on October 30, SpaceX said it was proposing “a simplified mission architecture and concept of operations” that would “result in a faster return to the Moon while simultaneously improving crew safety.”

SpaceX now seeks FAA approval to add new trajectories as Starship strives to reach orbit. Under the plan, the rocket would fly over land in Florida and Mexico, as well as the airspace of Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, likely disrupting hundreds of flights.

In its letter, the pilots’ union told the FAA that testing of the Starship “in a densely populated area should not be permitted (given the record of questionable failures)” until the craft becomes more reliable. The planned airline closures could prove “crippling” for Central Florida’s air network, he added.

However, SpaceX is not being discouraged.

Diez, the director of the company, said the in October, “We are working to make 2026 an epic year for Starship.”